My Precious! -- is it RARE?

[bernard_levine]

The second most favorite(*) newbie question on this forum is, "How rare is this knife?"

Sigh...

I've decided it is time to post a stock answer to this question.

This is going to be hard for you, as it is hard for every beginner, so pay careful attention.
[If you are not a beginner, you already know what I'm about to say.]


RARITY is a negative factor in value, a strong negative factor.


Men are sheep. This goes double for collectors, triple for arms collectors.
They ONLY want what the other sheep already have.
Show them something rare, or perish forbid unique , and they fall over and start to twitch, foam at the mouth.

Got that?

Yes, rare MINOR variations of common items (1909 S VDB penny is a classic example) DO command high prices.
But truly rare items are virtually unsalable, unless you LIE and say you've seen others in some of the BEST collections.
I have had only known examples of US mint struck medals from the 1860s, and they only brought a few hundred dollars,
while 'rare' pennies with dozens of examples known sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars (to rich sheep).

*

Some will argue with this analysis...
either because they don't like it and wish it were not so,
or because they heard otherwise on TARS on PBS,
or because they are clueless newbies.

They are wrong. Ignore them.

BRL...



(*) The most favorite newbie question on this forum is, "What steel is the blade?"

Always asked by someone who

• does not know the range of possibilities,
• does not know what difference it makes (hint: usually none),
• does not know what steel is, and therefore
• does not understand the answer -- which
• does not discourage him from arguing bitterly against it.

Sound familiar?

_

[festerfromnzed]

BRL,sounds very familiar and i couldnt agree with you more...BUT...none of us were born with this knowledge=we were all newbies at some stage....and if not for the vast knowledge the likes of yourself and others on this forum,pass on to the less educated,newbies we would stay...with thanks.......FES

[mwochna]

BRL -

Now you need to do another sticky on "Condition!" Over and over the sellers on a certain internet auction site write, "And it's in great shape, considering it's age..."

Actually, you could convert this sticky to a list of the common fallacies that new collectors fall prey to.

[not2sharp]

RARITY is a negative factor in value, a strong negative factor.

...And, so some of the best knives ever made (along with a mountain of junk) can be had for a song from some long fogotten junk bin.

That is why it pays to keep you eyes open.

n2s

[racoonbeast]

I am the first to admit that I know nothing of knives. I am just learning. I know nothing about coins, and don't care to. But I have to respectfully disagree with your generalizaion that firearms collectors are not only sheep, but triple sheep. I have bought and sold firearms and have been an advanced and very informed collector for over forty years. Rarity adds substantially to the value of a desirable firearm. One that comes to mind is the Walker Colt. Every serious collector has heard of them, but few have ever seen one. Their production number was very small. The last one that I saw sell was over a decade ago, and it went for over ten grand. I could give you twenty more examples if I thought about it for ten minutes, but that is not the point. In serious collecting world, rarity + desirability = value. It is as simple as the age old law of supply and demand. Of course if it is a specimen of a small production item that no one has ever heard of or cares about, you have removed "desirability" from the equation. But there is very little out there that is worthwhile that advanced and serious collectors are not aware of, whatever their interest. I can't imagine the same principals not applying to any other desirable antique. In my experience, rarity is always a valid consideration, but must be coupled with desirability for it to matter in terms of value. If desirability is there, the value is going to be affected tremendously by this rarity. I have met very few of these "sheep" that you talk of in the world of serious and informed collectors of firearms, and have spent the greater part of my life dealing with them. You might ask yourself why is the Mona Lisa considered priceless? Would it be if the one in the Louvre were one of a limited edition of ten thousand? There is only one, and it is desirable. It is always dangerous to generalize a whole group of people.

[Cougar Allen]

Rarity adds substantially to the value of a desirable firearm. One that comes to mind is the Walker Colt.

You're not getting the point. 19th century Colt revolvers are very common, so common they have attracted vast numbers of collectors, who all want the rare variant, the Walker. Just like collectors of Lincoln pennies, who all want the 1909SVDB.

A really rare 19th century revolver, a one of a kind prototype hand made by an inventor who never made another gun in his life -- is worth little. It's too rare to be valuable.

[Cougar Allen]

While I'm here, Cougar's Law of Limited Editions

If you manufacture 1,000 limited editions of 1,000 knives each, that's 1,000,000 "limited edition collector's items."

[DJD]

Demand over rarity is quite obvious in vintage guitar values.

e.g. :

A 1931 Martin D-28 (a bit over 4,000 made that year) might bring as much as $50,000. (Everybody wants one)

A 1902 Martin 10-string harp guitar (Only two made) might bring up to $5,000 if you could find a buyer. (Most players don't even know it exists)

In terms of supply and demand, price is almost always driven by demand over supply. Look at Levi's jeans for instance. They can crank out an infinite number of them if they wish. So why do people pay a premium price for them over brand X?

DD


One more thing -- while the harp guitar might bring a 10th of the price of the Dreadnought, that's not to say that ten harps would be worth one Dreadnought. You might only find two or three buyers that would even want one of the harps at that price. Plus, of course, they only made two of them.

[racoonbeast]

It looks like you believe that I am missing a point, when in fact it looks like we are pretty much in agreement on many points. A Walker Colt is not a variant of anything. It is a Walker Colt. They were made in extremely small numbers due to the the first Colt plant burning down and requiring the move to Connecticut. In the process the Dragoon series was conceived and manufactured with the Walker forgotten. There are other later model cap and ball pistols made by Colt in huge numbers and are eagerly collected today, but Walker Colts are all but unavailable. If you prefer, take the example of the the Borchardt automatic pistol. It is very desired as it was the inspiration for the Luger, and the rights of manufacture were eventually aquired by Luger. But a Borchardt is a Borchardt and very rare. It is not a Luger, or a variant of one. As we both have said, the law of supply and demand drives the price of everthing from antiques to oranges. Admittedly some people are willing to pay a premium for a brand name that they believe is better than brand X, but if Levi went out of business today, twenty years from now their price would follow the same rule. Desirability+rarity = value. I agree, and think that I said that desirability has to be part of the equation. If some unknown guy made one pair of jeans that would make them very rare. But who would want them? Desirability is generally the result of name recognition, and the name being perceived as desirable. I don't want to rag on any gun manufacturers, but I think we both can think of economy brands that are still in production today following an hundred or so years of production, that no one collects or cares about unique specimens of. But you are correct, and I agree that if Joe Blow made one gun a hundred years ago, who cares? There is no value there. But if a well recognized and desirable name brand made only one of something, that was unique and not a variant of a production piece, it would demand high value. Some gun collectors specialize in "variants" but in my experience, they are not the mainstream. My only point that I am trying to make is that rarity does often play a role in value. Not always, as we both seem to agree, and must be accompanied by desirability. But I don't think that we can dismiss it entirely. Under the right conditions it is the engine that drives the value. Admittedly, under other conditions where desirability is absent, it doesn't matter at all.

[Karda]

I believe you are still missing the gist of what bernard is trying to say. Bernard will correct me if i am misinterpreting.

A truly rare piece is undesirable for collectors and doesnt command a high price because of it's rarity....especially if there is only one example, while more common pieces with multiple examples cost innumerable amounts because collectors can be vain and only want the "best" example of what others can also have. Condition being the factor that drives the pricing, not rarity. This can be easily seen in almost any "collectible" area.

[DJD]

My only point that I am trying to make is that rarity does often play a role in value. Not always, as we both seem to agree, and must be accompanied by desirability.

And that's the problem. Rarity can kill desirability. If an item is 'off the radar', nobody will be looking for one. Collectors like to invest in pieces that have 1. recognized status 2. established monetary value, and 3. at least an outside chance of being acquired. Very rare items, unfortunately, exhibit none of these features. There are exceptions of course -- rare examples within highly desirable classes of collectibles (Like your Walker Colt) that are valuable. But it's because they fall inside a well-known and heavily researched group of weapons. So while rare numerically, they are highly recognizable and well known. Most rare items are not. Supply and demand can drive up the price of corn. But corn is not rare. Supply and demand have no effect on the value of Moon Rocks. They're too rare to be in demand.

DD

[Lagrangian]

I'm not a serious collector of anything, so take this with some salt. (I've only been an knife enthusiast for 3 months.)

Let's separate rarity in the real world (how many copies there) from rarity in mind-share.
There is only one Hope Diamond, so it is supremely rare. But everyone knows what it is in their minds. So it's dang valuable.

I think what you are saying is that if something is physically rare, then it can become rare in mindshare. Afterall, people forget what was fashionable years ago. If it's rare in mindshare, no one knows to want it, so by supply-and-demand, it becomes not valuable. This is surprisingly common. Which, I agree, is an interesting observation.

[racoonbeast]

No, I get your point. And I agree completely with your position of condition. I also agree that rarity means nothing when discussing a unique item with no name recognition or desirability. I am stubbornly holding on to my position that rarity cannot be totally discounted as a factor. It depends on a number of other supportive elements such as condition and desirability, and often has little effect on driving value if the other requirements are not met. I just can't swallow the notion that rarity has no place in determining the value of anything ever. My point is simply that if the other conditions are met, which includes desirability, which generally has a lot to do with the condition of the individual commonly recognized and desirable specimen, that rarity can play a major role in assessing an items value. Not always. Sometimes never. But sometimes can be the biggest factor in driving the price up. I agree that it seldom is, or ever should be the sole determining factor. But if the other elements that it needs to support it are met, then it is a valid consideration. In these cases, often a big one. I don't believe that any of us have missed the mark, or are that far apart in our opinions. I just disagree with a blanket statement that it has no meaning or relevance to value ever. It can, and at least some of the time does. In the end, the value of anything is only that which someone is willing to pay. Some collectors focus on rare items because of the same vanity and want what no other collector can have, due to its rarity. But it has to be something that people recognize and want for them to be successful. I honestly do get your points, and agree that they are valid points for the most part except that rarity is not a consideration ever, in fact it works against you always. That has not been my experience. It has been a spirited and intelligent exchange of points of view, and I have enjoyed it. But this dead horse has probably been beaten enough. At least I am willing to give it a break.

[Codger_64]

I just cut one of my Colt Walker Dragoons into tiny pieces. It was the one with the shot out barrel, eroded mechanism, bulged cylinder and buggered screws. I kept the like new one in it's presentation case with accoutrements and documentation. There is one less Walker in the world now so my surviving example just gained value, being more rare today than it was yesterday.

Still, my Schmidt and Fieldson revolver of the same age is much more rare. A dozen were made before S. Colt sued their butts off and acquired their tooling for his new plant. Supposedly, Colt also bought up most of their production which had been sold and destroyed them, so there are fewer that the original dozen surviving today. But I will trade it to you for a mate to my surviving Walker, new condition in the original presentation case, of course. I'll give some boot if the case still has the original supply of balls and the original cap tin too, as my surviving example does. More still if it also contains the letter with bill of sale from Colt to the original owner. I see at least one Walker a year, in varying conditions, but I've yet to see another Schmidt & Fieldson.

[racoonbeast]

Like I said. This poor horse has been beat to death. If you wish to believe differently than I, this is America and that is your right. I am a product of my own experience, as are we all. We all have have had different experiences. I have never lost a penny on a gun, and gave rarity the consideration that I felt it desrved when it was appropriate. In my case, it ain't broke, so I see no reason to fix it. Being an admirer of old Colts, I would love to see a picture posted of the like new condition one in the presentation case that you own with the original cap tin. It is indeed a very rare and desirable piece and very valuable. I personally have never seen one such as you describe except in books.

[Cougar Allen]

Whoosh

[Codger_64]

Whoosh

Wow! That jet went right over his head, didn't it? Oh look! A squirrel!

[racoonbeast]

BTW - I have never heard of a Colt Walker Dragoon. It was preceeded by the Patterson series, generally reffered to as Patterson Colts, and followed by the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Model Dragoon series. What would that make the Walter, the 0 series Dragoon? I would think that someone who has seen them as frequently as you, and owns the number of them that you say that you own would know this. But maybe you have been lucky enough to see and own the only Walker Colt Dragoons that have ever been heard of. Very rare. Better snatch up every other one that you find.

[Codger_64]

They weren't made by Colt. But then being an expert, you knew that. Sam Colt had just gone bankrupt. Eli Whitney made them. And Sam Walker was a U.S. Army Captain of Dragoons. But you knew that. So, you want to buy or trade for the Schmidt and Fieldson or not? Fewer made and fewer survive in any condition.

[not2sharp]

They weren't made by Colt. But then being an expert, you knew that. Sam Colt had just gone bankrupt. Eli Whitney made them. And Sam Walker was a U.S. Army Captain of Dragoons. But you knew that. So, you want to buy or trade for the Schmidt and Fieldson or not? Fewer made and fewer survive in any condition.

It is not about rarity, it is about publicity. There was a time when ancient samurai swords were routinely beaten against trees by small children and antique bayonets were sold for a few dollars a bucket load. If we were to unearth an authentic 1827 period portrait of Jim Bowie and his Sand Bar knife, then somebody's "rare" knife would instantly be worth a fortune. With enough favorable publicity even a community organizer can become a U.S. President. Likewise, the brass back "bowie" can become an instant sensation after it appears in Peterson's American Knives (c.1958). There are a lot of wonderful knives out there that have yet to be discovered by collectors, some one of a kind others part of an ubiquitous multitude.

n2s