Something for the Scagel fans........

[tvranesic]

Wow, guys...to someone like me here in New Zealand, this collection is as good as it gets, could there be any other collections out there that could top this?

While not nearly as large, the showcase of Scagel knives they have at Randall will still draw some drool from my most knife collectors.

[CDNWIDE]

Probably learned more about knife "collecting" in this thread then any other I've come across. Thank you for sharing your experience on the subject Mr. Levine.

[Triton]

I see this a LOT.

Forty years ago, when I got into this game, the guys who were all gaga over Case Remington Winchester had either used them as boys, or their fathers and grandfathers had used them when they were boys, or they had stared longingly at them in hardware store windows when they were boys, and resolved, "Someday..."

Now what young guys are looking at, and buying when they can afford them, are BenchMade, SOG, Spyderco, and other Knives Of Today that THEY grew up with.

To most young guys now, Winchester is the name on Chinese knives sold at Walmart (imported by Fiskars/Gerber, but this is not publicized). No big deal.
While Remington and Case are old-timey looking knives sold mainly to pensioners -- who are finding it more affordable to buy Rough Rider (which you gotta admit, look pretty good).

Some companies walk a tightrope, e.g. Buck - maintaining their 40-60 year old traditional patterns, but mainly featuring the newest and coolest.

Other companies now (think Kershaw) are in a constant frenzy of new models, competing (or so it seems) mainly against themselves.
As long as they do NOT follow the formula of my econ prof (We lose a little bit on each one, but try to make it up on volume) they will be okay.

*

So... it's not that prices go down. If you think about it, that has no meaning in an antiques or art market. The competition goes down, or rather, it goes away. The few buyers left, plus any who join them, can be a lot more selective, both in what they buy, and in how much they pay.

When I sell a knife on consignment, I have to sell it where the market is now. Often that 'market' is one person.

Several times in the past few years I've told a potential consignor how much I can get, and he tells me he'll wait.
A year later he calls me back and says, "I guess i'll take that, after all."
"No you won't," says I. "That was then. I doubt I can get half that now."

So my advice to you is, if you have a knife that was valuable 15 years ago, you should sell it 15 years ago.
That's what i did.

BRL...

This is a great post and one of the reasons I frequent this subforum are posts like this.

If I could be really nosy, would you care to detail any of the "markets of one" that you mention? I'm curious as to what sort of high end knife there might be that has only one (or maybe just a handful) of buyers.

[bernard_levine]

This is a great post and one of the reasons I frequent this subforum are posts like this.

If I could be really nosy, would you care to detail any of the "markets of one" that you mention? I'm curious as to what sort of high end knife there might be that has only one (or maybe just a handful) of buyers.

It would be easier to list the few high end knives that have more than one serious buyer right now.

BRL...

[Cougar Allen]

Nothing keeps on going up in price forever. Not tulips, not stocks, not real estate -- certainly not knives.

That doesn't mean you can't make money with an investment, of course you can, but when someone tells you to invest in something -- anything at all -- and just sock it away and forget it, the longer you hold it the better, it's sure to keep going up higher and higher ... don't believe him.

[DJD]

The key to investing in the stock market is to buy low and sell high. Curiously, most people do the exact opposite. When the market is soaring, investors get giddy, and buy like maniacs. When the market plummets, the same people panic and sell at a loss. While the time to sell a Scagel would have been better 15 years ago, the time to buy one would be better today.

DD

[Triton]

It would be easier to list the few high end knives that have more than one serious buyer right now.

BRL...

... and that's the another reason...

[Triton]

The key to investing in the stock market is to buy low and sell high. Curiously, most people do the exact opposite. When the market is soaring, investors get giddy, and buy like maniacs. When the market plummets, the same people panic and sell at a loss. While the time to sell a Scagel would have been better 15 years ago, the time to buy one would be better today.

DD

You never know, if BRL is correct then it seems like that would still be relative. Now is a better time to buy than 15 years ago, but 15 years from now might be better yet.

I guess I'm going to have to stick with the old adage, buy what you like. Knives as an investment is a tricky business it seems.

[DJD]

ow is a better time to buy than 15 years ago, but 15 years from now might be better yet.

That's true. In which case, you should buy another one in 15 years. (assuming one has the time and money to play the game). Historically important knives like the Scagel are not like Beanie Babies or action figures. They have intrinsic worth, like real estate, and will not depreciate in value forever.

DD

[Cougar Allen]

The stock market as a whole (doesn't necessarily apply to an individual stock) holds enduring interest for speculators as well as investors. It goes up and down, up and down, every boom is followed by a bust but every bust is followed by a recovery and eventually another boom.

Some collectibles follow a similar pattern. Coins, stamps ... um ... anything else? Most collectibles only have one boom and one bust. Of course the people who collect that thing because they like it continue to, even after the bust, but the speculators never come back. They go haring after the next big boom, in some other thing.

(The stock market analogue of collectors is investors -- people who buy stocks because they pay dividends.)

[bernard_levine]

The best time to buy a knife to KEEP is when you find a bargain. Bargains are often out there, especially on old knives.

I don't mean 10% off. I mean 90% or 98% off, from an uninformed lazy seller. But you better know how to spot fakes and re-works.

That way you won't be constantly anxious about current prices. You can ignore them. You got yours, literally.


Current 'market' prices CAN be a bargain, as DJD suggests, but not often. Hardly ever.

Discounts off of current market prices are almost never bargains; they are leading indicators of falling markets that will fall further.

*

The time to buy a knife to SELL at a profit is when you have the buyer already lined up.

People who make money on knives, and plenty do, make it by selling, not by holding.

There are only two reasons to hold on to a knife:
1. You like it.
2. No one will buy it, or even take it for free.

I have many of both kinds.

BRL...

[Ishrub]

2. No one will buy it, or even take it for free.

I have many of both kinds.

BRL...

I'm open to offers and will even cover postage to relieve you of your burdens. The line starts here guys.

[Cougar Allen]

I have some that I like AND no one would buy....

[bernard_levine]

Historically important knives like the Scagel are not like Beanie Babies or action figures. They have intrinsic worth, like real estate, and will not depreciate in value forever.

DD

No, no, and no.

No knife is historically important because of who made it.
Interesting, maybe, to a tiny number of specialists.
Valuable, briefly, while that maker is in fashion.
Important? NEVER.

The only knives that can remotely be considered "historically important" are ones that belonged to historical personages whose names are household words: Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln.

Lesser historical figures might as well never have lived, as far as the public is concerned, and that includes knife collectors.

I remember the poor guy who had inherited a knife given as a thank you by Louis Philippe to Daniel Webster. He could not interest anybody in it.

And the guy who had a bowie presented to Thomas Rice, inventor of the minstrel show. Same problem.

And the Schively bowie that Davy Crockett gave to Daniel Webster (people liked to give Webster knives, I guess).

And the original bowie knife, that Rezin Bowie gave to Edwin Forrest.

And the stage knife that Forrest used throughout his acting career (in his time, Forrest was as famous and popular as Elvis was later).

Nobody wanted them. Nobody will pay anything for them.

*

The funny side of this is that when some con man comes up with an obviously phony garbage knife attributed to a famous person who never even owned a knife, such as James Bowie or Sam Houston, he can sell it to some self-important sucker for $2 or $3 million, which no real knife has ever approached.

*

As to 'intrinsic value,' the intrinsic value of a knife is $1, a tool for cutting things up. Or maybe half a dollar.

Nothing has intrinsic value, including real estate. Including gold. Or live kidneys.

Intrinsic value is a medieval fantasy, along with 'just price' and 'fair wage.'

Fair is a four letter word. Here is an excerpt from P. J. O'Rourke's book, Don't Vote, It Just Encourages The B@stards.

I have a twelve-year-old daughter, Muffin. All I hear is, "It's not fair! It's not fair! It's not fair!" I say to her, "Honey, you're cute. That's not fair. You're smart. That's not fair. You were born in the United States of America. That's not fair. Darling, you had better get down on your knees and pray to God that things don't start getting fair for you.

BRL...

[Ishrub]

Jim Lucie's collection of Scagels and related items is going up for auction. Will be interesting to see what they do now, as most of Scagel's fan base is getting older......

http://jamesdjulia.com/auctions/div_....asp?do=Search .

Just type Scagel into the search box, as it won't direct link. Some interesting things in that grouping.

.

I just received this other notification of the sale from the online blade-newsletter@weapons-community.com

http://www.blademag.com/profiles/blo...&rid=232459321

[jdm61]

Nice stuff. Some of the guns from page 2 are pretty amazing like the Walker Colt and the 45-70 Gatling gun, as are the estimates for those two pieces.

[DJD]

No knife is historically important because of who made it.
Interesting, maybe, to a tiny number of specialists.
Valuable, briefly, while that maker is in fashion.

I wish that were true. I would have my rooms wallpapered with antique bowies, medieval swords, Scagels, Prices, etc. But for some reason, I can't afford them. Or for that matter, Stradivarius violins, Dusenbergs, and Van Erp lamps. All of which now cost a lot more than they did 50 or 100 years ago. Maybe some things never go completely out of fashion. I may well be wrong in my use of the term 'intrinsic value' for these items, but I didn't really have in mind their utilitarian value--which would be very little in the 21st century. Rather I meant the difficulty in duplicating them. Like Elvis impersonators, fake antiques are usually not too hard to spot. And I suspect that there will always be a market for the real thing as long as there are people with disposable income who are intrigued by the past. There's no doubt that the market fluctuates over time. But from what I've seen in the course of my life, the long term trend tends to be upward.

DD

[not2sharp]

I wish that were true. I would have my rooms wallpapered with antique bowies, medieval swords, Scagels, Prices, etc. But for some reason, I can't afford them. Or for that matter, Stradivarius violins, Dusenbergs, and Van Erp lamps. All of which now cost a lot more than they did 50 or 100 years ago. Maybe some things never go completely out of fashion. I may well be wrong in my use of the term 'intrinsic value' for these items, but I didn't really have in mind their utilitarian value--which would be very little in the 21st century. Rather I meant the difficulty in duplicating them. Like Elvis impersonators, fake antiques are usually not too hard to spot. And I suspect that there will always be a market for the real thing as long as there are people with disposable income who are intrigued by the past. There's no doubt that the market fluctuates over time. But from what I've seen in the course of my life, the long term trend tends to be upward.

DD

Let's just say that older items have a built in ongoing supply reduction through simple attrition. So even if the market shrinks prices may hold or even increase as the available examples become fewer still. There are no guarantees that the value will hold, but we can be confident that the number of available real 1830s bowies will grow smaller as the available finite supply is used or inadvertantly damaged over time.

Edited to add a word of caution: Although the above is true in the absolute, there can be local and temporary supply increases. For instance, over the last 10 years Atlanta Cutlery has unearth and imported a great many kukries and bayonets which had been previously held in Nepal's arsenals. This has negatively impacted prices on many of these items. The same may happen when Lucie's collection is sold at market.

n2s

[DJD]

Let's just say that older items have a built in ongoing supply reduction through simple attrition. So even if the market shrinks prices may hold or even increase as the available examples become fewer still. There are no guarantees that the value will hold, but we can be confident that the number of available real 1830s bowies will grow smaller as the available finite supply is used or inadvertantly damaged over time.

n2s

Yes--but of course as BRL has regularly pointed out, rarity doesn't drive value--demand does. I don't see many Ford Pintos on the road these days, but I bet their value hasn't gone up much. However, I think there will always be a market for classic early knives. The obscure makers may not bring in the big bucks, but they'll always command better prices than, say, kitchen knives of the same period. Are they a good investment? Maybe to pass on to your grandchildren. I think the time-line for appreciation may be a bit long, compared to the stock market, for instance, which can change dramatically in a few weeks. By the time your bowie doubles in value, you may well be long dead. But if you want to own one, and don't expect to sell it, it's a hard-to-lose investment--if you can pick it up at a good price. The pleasure of ownership it brings is certainly worth something.

DD

[not2sharp]

... I think there will always be a market for classic early knives. ....

DD

Then by all means invest. Though it may be worth asking yourself first how such a market might be created or expanded. Who would have predicted that a sci-fi fantasy like Highlander could spawn a whole new generation of sword collectors, or that Japan's ban on new swords would lead to a massive rise in demand for legally importable swords? The knife may have desirable features and an interesting past, but that is only relevant if that message brought to the market.

n2s