The tally

[bulgron]

Running for president is expensive business! Just for grins, I decided to start this thread so as to track the campaigns' finances. It matters because the guy with the most money to dump into the race generally has an edge when election day comes. So far we are on track to have the most amount of money in a presidential race, ever. All kinds of financial records are going to get made this year. They're already reporting crazy numbers, which I believe in the end will only hurt our nation as the elections are increasingly won using whatever money the wealthiest 1% are willing to dump into politician's coffers. That means that politicians will be increasingly beholden to the wealthiest 1%. (For the record, I am a proponent of publicly funded only presidential campaigns. But describing how that could be made to work is, I think, off topic.)

Unfortunately for Obama, since I started paying attention, he's been getting way out fundraised. On the other hand, for this timeframe in 2008, he was getting out fundraised too, so maybe he'll catch up to Romney as the race progresses.

In 2008, Obama raised a record total of $748.6 million, while McCain (who was hobbled by agreeing to accept public money) only managed a total of $322 million, including $84 million in public funding. The financial disparity gave Obama a huge advantage over McCain. I don't think that really cost McCain the election, but I do think it critically hurt him.

Clearly, the financial disparity isn't going to happen this time.

Something to watch out for: Obama set his monthly fundraising record in September 2008 with a total of $150.1 million. I therefore expect his money stream to get a lot better as we get closer to the election. No predictions on whether Romney will continue to grow his income at his current pace. But I will be curious to see when, if ever, one of these candidates breaks the $150 million ceiling.

May:

Romney: $76.8 million
Obama: $60 million

(May 2008, McCain raised $17 million, Obama $8.7 million)

June:

Romney: $106.1 million
Obama: $71 million

(Romney currently has $160 million in the bank. Obama has $109 million.)

July

Romney: $101.3 million
Obama: $ 75.0 million


*** I'll add on to this post as each month's fund raising totals are announced. ***

[bulgron]

Romney is saying that he's been limited on how much he can spend running against Obama because he's still in the primary season. The Romney campaign spent all their primary dollars advertising for the primary. After the convention, they can switch to their general election fund. Obama, on the other hand, has been able to spend freely on attack ads against Romney because he didn't have to deal with a primary battle.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/r...182838461.html

So in other words, Romney and Obama are polling neck and neck currently, but that's with Obama spending freely to attack Romney while Romney has one hand tied behind his back.

The GOP convention is August 27 -30. After that, I expect things to start getting really interesting.

[jdm61]

Bulgron, another way of looking at it is that Obama has already dropped well over $50 million on anti-Romney ads, some of which were questionable at best as they open him up to criticism from the "fact checker" organizations and others which were downright stupid as members of his own party called him out on some of them. Romney looks like he is just starting to get revved up and Obama's MAJOR gaffe this week in his speech about how business owners did not really do what they claim to have done (comments about context notwithstanding) is a GREAT opening for Romney to exploit in my opinion.

Romney is saying that he's been limited on how much he can spend running against Obama because he's still in the primary season. The Romney campaign spent all their primary dollars advertising for the primary. After the convention, they can switch to their general election fund. Obama, on the other hand, has been able to spend freely on attack ads against Romney because he didn't have to deal with a primary battle.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/r...182838461.html

So in other words, Romney and Obama are polling neck and neck currently, but that's with Obama spending freely to attack Romney while Romney has one hand tied behind his back.

The GOP convention is August 27 -30. After that, I expect things to start getting really interesting.

[bulgron]

Looks like the money game really is not going Obama's way.

Weeks of vicious attacks by the Obama campaign assailing Mitt Romney’s character and making questionable charges about his stewardship of Bain Capital have yielded the following result: the latest national poll, released by the New York Times, shows Romney with a slight edge.

With little record to run on, an economy mired in slow growth, and unemployment stuck above eight percent, the Obama team must face the possibility that it is unloading some of its only rhetorical ammunition without result. And after burning through $100 million of his money on campaign ads, Obama has failed to establish a lead over his rival.

The NY Times poll puts Romney slightly ahead of Obama 45 - 43, with only 39% approving the way Obama is handling the economy.

The article also notices that Obama's recent barrage of attack ads might be working against him:

The unrelenting attacks by Obama may also be having a subtler deleterious effect on his campaign.

The president is having trouble meeting his fundraising goals and must log countless miles traversing the country to try to fill his coffers. The financial shortfall is reflective of the depleted enthusiasm for Obama among his supporters, who have watched as he has unintentionally rebranded himself from the 2008 candidate of hope and change into a crude politician willing to do whatever it takes to ensure his political survival.

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/201...ttacks-effect/

So, as JDM mentioned, all that money with nothing really to show for it. AND Obama is having to spend enormous amounts of time fundraising just to keep the money coming in.

I predict that the money totals for July are going to prove to be a blow-out in favor of Romney. After Obama's foolish attack on business owners, I'm guessing a whole bunch of people are going to write a check to Romney. Obama really underscored the difference in world views between the two campaigns -- an opportunity that Romney is not missing:



Of course, the question remains whether an advantage in money at this stage in the campaign can overcome Obama's incumbency advantage. But I do think the money game can tell us a lot about who has the momentum and who's struggling.

I wonder how things will change once Romney starts to campaign? In a little over a week he should have the GOP nomination, at which time this campaign will really begin.

[ttoney83]

Monitarily it's going to be a BLOWout! In favor of Romney that is.

[bulgron]

Obama's campaign ran in the red again in June. He spent $38.2 million on television advertising, to Romney's $10.4 million.

There's an apples and oranges aspect to the money race that makes this confusing. Sometimes the press gives numbers that are a combination of what the candidate raised/spent, plus the Dem/Repub national party, plus PACs. So when the press claims that Obama has $98.7 million in the bank, what they mean is that Obama + the DNC has $98.7 million. Given this, the numbers currently look like:

In the bank as of the end of June:

Obama: $46 million. Dem Party: $37.5 million. Total: $83.5

Romney: $22.5 million. Rep Party: $89.4 million. Total: $111.9

Note that the article at first says Obama has $98.7 million at the end of June, but then the numbers they give for the Obama campaign don't add up to that amount. Confusing, isn't it? No idea if the numbers are tweaked for Romney as well.

That said, it appears that Romney continues to bring in more than he's spending, while Obama continues to run in the red. Once the Republican convention is over and Romney enters the general election season, I expect to see him start spending a lot more money.

By the way, both men are being funded largely by a relatively small handful of extremely wealthy donors. For Obama, Hollywood is funding his campaign. For Romney, it's a small crowd of really rich guys from a couple of states. Obama is beating Romney on the < $200 donation game, though. Which we all know from last election can add up to real money if enough gift cards are distributed from "unnamed sources."

http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/21/ob...n-it-takes-in/

[annr]

"In the red again." Make for a good campaign slogan?

[bulgron]

I just updated the July numbers. Romney and his Republican allies outraised Obama in July, $101.3 to $75 million. According to this article:

Mr. Obama’s advisers have all but conceded the money race to Mr. Romney. Fund-raising e-mails from the campaign have taken a more urgent tone over the summer, repeatedly warning supporters of the financial advantage that the Republicans will hold going into the final weeks of the presidential campaign.

This is a good sign for Romney, who still hasn't gotten past the convention and so still hasn't started spending from his general election account. As I said up-thread, Obama was able to out-spend McCain 2-to-1 in 2008. Without that kind of a spending advantage, I think it's clear that this race will remain competitive right up until the end.

All in all, I also think that Obama's inability to keep up with Romney's fund raising efforts points to a structural problem with his campaign. Possible problems are that his donation base is broke, his base is unenthusiastic about Obama, and/or his base is already burnt out from Obama's constant campaigning since early this year. But anyway you look at it, Romney continues to have the financial momentum over Obama, which I believe will translate into electoral advantages as the year progresses.

[Triton]

I just updated the July numbers. Romney and his Republican allies outraised Obama in July, $101.3 to $75 million. According to this article:



This is a good sign for Romney, who still hasn't gotten past the convention and so still hasn't started spending from his general election account. As I said up-thread, Obama was able to out-spend McCain 2-to-1 in 2008. Without that kind of a spending advantage, I think it's clear that this race will remain competitive right up until the end.

All in all, I also think that Obama's inability to keep up with Romney's fund raising efforts points to a structural problem with his campaign. Possible problems are that his donation base is broke, his base is unenthusiastic about Obama, and/or his base is already burnt out from Obama's constant campaigning since early this year. But anyway you look at it, Romney continues to have the financial momentum over Obama, which I believe will translate into electoral advantages as the year progresses.

I think this is a good sign, but I'm still concerned. There's nothing to prevent millions of dollars of anonymous gift card donations to come rolling in. How broke are the Chinese?

[timcsaw]

Them Mullahs and Sheikhs also gots' lots of moneys'. (and theys' kinfolk).

[bulgron]

http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...rs-are-nervous

“We know we will be outspent — that’s just the reality, ” Jen Psaki, a spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, told reporters as the president traveled to Connecticut for two high-dollar fundraisers — including one by movie mogul Harvey Weinstein — estimated to bring in $2 million.

Psaki said the campaign’s focus is on having the resources and tools needed to “build the biggest grassroots campaign in history,” and downplayed any disadvantages Obama’s campaign might suffer from weaker fundraising. But some donors for President Obama’s reelection bid expressed frustration on Monday, saying that the campaign needed to be more competitive.

It's clear that people in the Obama camp are worried about the current fundraising imbalance. But the article also says this:

And at a certain point, general advertising and general television and radio spending shows diminishing returns — which is where the president's vaunted ground game can come into play.

“There's a definite diminishing-return effect from mass advertising,” said Malbin. “At some point voters will have heard enough, they'll have taken in the information they need, they'll be filtering future information in ways that have already been established.”

Furthermore, the president continues to outpace Romney in terms of small-dollar donors who are most likely to volunteer for the campaign, encourage friends to vote and give again as the race heats up.

I think there's real truth in the second quote. Romney's biggest weakness is that he's viewed with luke-warm enthusiasm by the right-wing base, which is who he needs to act as boots on the ground. To be sure, there's a huge amount of enthusiasm in this election from the political right, but it's entirely based on kicking Obama out of office, not on really wanting Romney to be president. I know from personal experience that positive efforts ("I really like Romney and want him to be president") are likely to endure through hard work more than negative efforts ("I hate Obama and want him gone.")

Still, if Romney can continue to beat Obama up in the money game, that's actually a morale-booster for his ground game. People who are engaged in a negative effort ("Get rid of Obama!") really need to believe they can succeed in order to keep putting out all the hard work. Further, if Romney continues to be neck and neck in the polls -- or, even better, pull ahead -- I think that combined with the money advantage will negate Obama's ground game.

After all, Obama's support has weakened quite a bit in the last 3.5 years. I don't think we're going to see people as eager to get out and help the guy win election as they were in 2008. For one thing, this is no longer a 'historic' election where people would get to vote for the first black president. For another, Obama hasn't come even close to fulfilling the hopes and dreams of the people who worked to get him into office.

This election is still way too early to predict. But I do think that Romney's success on the money game gives him a momentum that Obama (to the shock of many) can't match. It matters. Question is, will Romney continue to keep his momentum after the convention. I think that comes down to who he picks as his running mate. I, for one, am increasingly interested in who that will be, because I think it can make or break Romney's money game and, by extension, this election.

[Triton]

http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...rs-are-nervous



It's clear that people in the Obama camp are worried about the current fundraising imbalance. But the article also says this:



I think there's real truth in the second quote. Romney's biggest weakness is that he's viewed with luke-warm enthusiasm by the right-wing base, which is who he needs to act as boots on the ground. To be sure, there's a huge amount of enthusiasm in this election from the political right, but it's entirely based on kicking Obama out of office, not on really wanting Romney to be president. I know from personal experience that positive efforts ("I really like Romney and want him to be president") are likely to endure through hard work more than negative efforts ("I hate Obama and want him gone.")

Still, if Romney can continue to beat Obama up in the money game, that's actually a morale-booster for his ground game. People who are engaged in a negative effort ("Get rid of Obama!") really need to believe they can succeed in order to keep putting out all the hard work. Further, if Romney continues to be neck and neck in the polls -- or, even better, pull ahead -- I think that combined with the money advantage will negate Obama's ground game.

After all, Obama's support has weakened quite a bit in the last 3.5 years. I don't think we're going to see people as eager to get out and help the guy win election as they were in 2008. For one thing, this is no longer a 'historic' election where people would get to vote for the first black president. For another, Obama hasn't come even close to fulfilling the hopes and dreams of the people who worked to get him into office.

This election is still way too early to predict. But I do think that Romney's success on the money game gives him a momentum that Obama (to the shock of many) can't match. It matters. Question is, will Romney continue to keep his momentum after the convention. I think that comes down to who he picks as his running mate. I, for one, am increasingly interested in who that will be, because I think it can make or break Romney's money game and, by extension, this election.

Rumors of Petraeus are swirling. That would do a lot to enthuse conservatives, would it enrage liberals enough to shake them out of their apathy?

[bulgron]

Rumors of Petraeus are swirling. That would do a lot to enthuse conservatives, would it enrage liberals enough to shake them out of their apathy?

Those rumors are a real stretch. Some staffer overheard Obama whispering something that sounded like Romney wants Patraeus except that Patraeus has always said he doesn't want to get in politics and besides Obama has disavowed the rumor.

Ummm... Hmm....

In other words, I really don't think Patraeus is going to be the pick.

[Triton]

Those rumors are a real stretch. Some staffer overheard Obama whispering something that sounded like Romney wants Patraeus except that Patraeus has always said he doesn't want to get in politics and besides Obama has disavowed the rumor.

Ummm... Hmm....

In other words, I really don't think Patraeus is going to be the pick.

I doubt it as well but it's an interesting notion and he would be hard for the administration to attack. How can they accuse him of incompetence when they've picked him to run the CIA?

[timcsaw]

He should choose Ron Paul for VP... give actual value to a whole lot of "principled" votes.

[bulgron]

He should choose Ron Paul for VP... give actual value to a whole lot of "principled" votes.

If memory serves, Paul has also said that he's not interested in the VP pick.

[timcsaw]

If memory serves, Paul has also said that he's not interested in the VP pick.

I recall the same... so he's taking his ball and going home.

[bulgron]

I recall the same... so he's taking his ball and going home.

I'm wondering if he's going to take his ball and go play with the libertarians. Apparently he has a lot of delegates going into the GOP convention. Not sure how he'll try to leverage that, or what he'll do if he doesn't get what he wants. But if Paul was to endorse Gary Johnson, thereby getting all the Paul-heads to stampeded away from the GOP, it would definitely hand this election to Obama.

[timcsaw]

I'm wondering if he's going to take his ball and go play with the libertarians. Apparently he has a lot of delegates going into the GOP convention. Not sure how he'll try to leverage that, or what he'll do if he doesn't get what he wants. But if Paul was to endorse Gary Johnson, thereby getting all the Paul-heads to stampeded away from the GOP, it would definitely hand this election to Obama.

Agreed... the convention will be interesting indeed!

[BlairB]

Petraeus won't be vp. He will be installed in a coup in 2014.