Are the Iranians hell bent on the destruction of Israel?

[ttoney83]

Let's say Iran builds a nuke and decides to use it on Israel. What would be their target? Jerusalem? Never! Tel Aviv would be the most likely target.

MAD was mentioned. I don't think that it would apply here. How many nukes could Iran build? How many does Israel have? If Iran were to nuke
a city in Israel, would Israel respond with just one or would they wipe out every major city and military installation in the country?

As I said before, I think all the threats from Iran is bluff and bluster just as it is from No. Korea. We'll have to wait and see.

I agree. Which is why I said they might be trying to goad Israel into doing something. IF Israel did, I think it would win major sympathy points for Iran.

[Nordic Viking]

I agree. Which is why I said they might be trying to goad Israel into doing something. IF Israel did, I think it would win major sympathy points for Iran.

That's correct. The majority of the Iranian people don't care about Islam or Israel. The Mullahs are losing support and want someone like Israel or the US to bomb them so they can unite the whole country against their attackers.

Netanyahu only knows how to fight, so the only tool in his toolbox is a large hammer.

[ttoney83]

That's correct. The majority of the Iranian people don't care about Islam or Israel. The Mullahs are losing support and want someone like Israel or the US to bomb them so they can unite the whole country against their attackers.

Netanyahu only knows how to fight, so the only tool in his toolbox is a large hammer.

And this is why I agree with former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan's assertion that the best way to fight this with Iran is to transform their government by supporting the opposition elements within Iran.

Whether or not the Iranians WANT Israel or the U.S. to attack them I don't know. I wouldn't if I were Iranian, not necessarily. BUT, I would invite funding and organizational support for my movement to overthrow the Mullahs.

Netanyahu is probably a fairly smart guy, BUuuut, he's acting like he's as sharp as a sledge hammer....

[timcsaw]

And this is why I agree with former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan's assertion that the best way to fight this with Iran is to transform their government by supporting the opposition elements within Iran.

Whether or not the Iranians WANT Israel or the U.S. to attack them I don't know. I wouldn't if I were Iranian, not necessarily. BUT, I would invite funding and organizational support for my movement to overthrow the Mullahs.

Netanyahu is probably a fairly smart guy, BUuuut, he's acting like he's as sharp as a sledge hammer....

Support and funding overthrow in Iran isn't a bad idea at all... IIRC, this is what the Republicans were suggesting in 2009-2010 during the "unrest" after the Iranian election. Too bad Obama and the Dems did nothing at all.

[Triton]

Let's say Iran builds a nuke and decides to use it on Israel. What would be their target? Jerusalem? Never! Tel Aviv would be the most likely target.

MAD was mentioned. I don't think that it would apply here. How many nukes could Iran build? How many does Israel have? If Iran were to nuke
a city in Israel, would Israel respond with just one or would they wipe out every major city and military installation in the country?

As I said before, I think all the threats from Iran is bluff and bluster just as it is from No. Korea. We'll have to wait and see.

This assumes that Iran would simply load the weapon up on a missile and launch it. That's not how I'd do it. If I were Iran my nuclear weapon would be "stolen." It would then be set off in Tel Aviv (or New York or D.C.) by some dastardly terrorist organization that I had nothing to do with. I would be outraged of course, I might even send flowers as condolences.

[Nordic Viking]

This assumes that Iran would simply load the weapon up on a missile and launch it. That's not how I'd do it. If I were Iran my nuclear weapon would be "stolen." It would then be set off in Tel Aviv (or New York or D.C.) by some dastardly terrorist organization that I had nothing to do with. I would be outraged of course, I might even send flowers as condolences.

You could at least try to invent a different scenario than GW Bush's "Iraq has WMD" bluff. Besides, if anyone built a nuke and lost it they would face the same consequences as those who set it off.

[timcsaw]

This assumes that Iran would simply load the weapon up on a missile and launch it. That's not how I'd do it. If I were Iran my nuclear weapon would be "stolen." It would then be set off in Tel Aviv (or New York or D.C.) by some dastardly terrorist organization that I had nothing to do with. I would be outraged of course, I might even send flowers as condolences.

And THERE it is!

This is the 99% sure thing with a missile or bomb at about 1%. First, Iran never had a nuke, second if they did it was stolen, third they like the Jews and American people and only hate the Zionist and American leadership. If some horrible terrorists nuked Israel or any American city the Iranian leaders would morn the loss of "civilians", but rejoice that a few of our leaders were among the thousands of dead.

[Triton]

You could at least try to invent a different scenario than GW Bush's "Iraq has WMD" bluff. Besides, if anyone built a nuke and lost it they would face the same consequences as those who set it off.

Other then bringing out the George Bush bogeyman what is wrong with the scenario? Is it somehow unrealistic or implausible? So you believe that if iran says "oh noes we had a nuke and lost it" they would face the same consequence as if they launched a missile? I don't think so, I think it would be just the fig leaf the world needed to shrug its shoulders and say "bad bad Iran" rather then turning the place into a wasteland.

[OliverH]

That's correct. The majority of the Iranian people don't care about Islam or Israel. The Mullahs are losing support and want someone like Israel or the US to bomb them so they can unite the whole country against their attackers.

Netanyahu only knows how to fight, so the only tool in his toolbox is a large hammer.

Exactly. The mullahs are playing the same card that Fidel played for so long, using an external enemy both to rally support from good patriots and as a convenient justification for the brutal suppression of dissent. We and (most especially) Israel continue to support them in this. Sometimes you get into a situation that amounts to a symbiosis of enemies: As a recent example, George W. Bush and Osama bin Laden used each other to increase their influence and credibility among their potential constituencies.

[ttoney83]

And THERE it is!

This is the 99% sure thing with a missile or bomb at about 1%. First, Iran never had a nuke, second if they did it was stolen, third they like the Jews and American people and only hate the Zionist and American leadership. If some horrible terrorists nuked Israel or any American city the Iranian leaders would morn the loss of "civilians", but rejoice that a few of our leaders were among the thousands of dead.

While this is certainly a PLAUSible scenario for a future nuclear armed Iran, the facts tell a different story.
A simple google search yields a wiki primer on the subject which reveals that the only countries known to have developed miniturize nukes were the Soviet Union and the United States. The SMALLEST of these could fit in a briefcase BUT, the LIGHTEST of these were approximately 51-100lb.

At these sizes you're looking at yeilds of approximately 6 tons to 1kiloton.

As we have seen from experience, the development of the technology to refine the materiel necessary, and the technology to build a bomb, is not the easiest thing to accomplish. It is apparently even more difficult to miniturize this technology.....

The more likely scenario is a dirty bomb and these are no more dangerous or scary than a chemical weapon.

[timcsaw]

While this is certainly a PLAUSible scenario for a future nuclear armed Iran, the facts tell a different story.
A simple google search yields a wiki primer on the subject which reveals that the only countries known to have developed miniturize nukes were the Soviet Union and the United States. The SMALLEST of these could fit in a briefcase BUT, the LIGHTEST of these were approximately 51-100lb.

At these sizes you're looking at yeilds of approximately 6 tons to 1kiloton.

As we have seen from experience, the development of the technology to refine the materiel necessary, and the technology to build a bomb, is not the easiest thing to accomplish. It is apparently even more difficult to miniturize this technology.....

The more likely scenario is a dirty bomb and these are no more dangerous or scary than a chemical weapon.

Yes, understood... but, without going into detail, I wouldn't expect miniaturization to be required for delivery. Keep this in mind and use your imagination; Is an ICBM or aircraft-launched, air-to-ground missile necessary to destroy a large building (or two)? Is a submarine and torpedo required to blow a hole in a US Navy Destroyer, etc.?

[ttoney83]

Yes, understood... but, without going into detail, I wouldn't expect miniaturization to be required for delivery.

True, you could deliver it in a ship to a port and from there in a truck to the middle of NY or wherever. The point here is that as size goes up, delivery becomes more difficult and, theoretically, easier to detect.

[ttoney83]

What amazes me about the efforts of Mossad to delay Iran's nuke capability is that they were able to replace legitimate equipment with faulty equipment or to sabotage that equipment.

Think about that, the assets needed to be in place in the required countries, or even companies, to carry out such operations.

Mossad is pretty badass! To say the least....

[Triton]

True, you could deliver it in a ship to a port and from there in a truck to the middle of NY or wherever. The point here is that as size goes up, delivery becomes more difficult and, theoretically, easier to detect.

In theory yes, but let's face it our border security is a joke... and that's not by accident. Just ask a few million illegal aliens.

[jdm61]

Actually, Fidel is different. In a way, he is no worse and, in some cases, better than those who came before him, at least as far as a lot of people are concerned. Do not confuse dissatisfaction with aspects of the regime with a desire to have the old folks back. He was able to play his card because of some of my old Miami buddies who actually think that they will go back an take over again once the Castros die. Remember that those people's parents and grandparents were so hated that it only took an "army" of 700 wild eyed revolutionaries and college students to throw them out on their ass and 700 was the LARGEST that army ever got. LOL

Exactly. The mullahs are playing the same card that Fidel played for so long, using an external enemy both to rally support from good patriots and as a convenient justification for the brutal suppression of dissent. We and (most especially) Israel continue to support them in this. Sometimes you get into a situation that amounts to a symbiosis of enemies: As a recent example, George W. Bush and Osama bin Laden used each other to increase their influence and credibility among their potential constituencies.

[ttoney83]

In theory yes, but let's face it our border security is a joke... and that's not by accident. Just ask a few million illegal aliens.

True. By the way, I figured out how the Chinese are going to take down the U.S. I think EVery worker in the Subway system of D.C. is Chinese. THEY CONTROL THE UNDERGROUND!!

[UffDa]

This assumes that Iran would simply load the weapon up on a missile and launch it. That's not how I'd do it. If I were Iran my nuclear weapon would be "stolen." It would then be set off in Tel Aviv (or New York or D.C.) by some dastardly terrorist organization that I had nothing to do with. I would be outraged of course, I might even send flowers as condolences.

I read a novel a long time ago about the looming destruction of Israel. All the Muslim states were massing on the borders ready to invade. The Israelis sort of informed the major
powers of the world that they had nukes planted in every major city and if Israel goes so does the rest of the world. No one knew for sure if it was true or a bluff, but the invasion
was called off and everyone lived happily ever after.

Hey! It could happen.

[Bigfattyt]

Ground detonation would be a waste of a nuke.

High altitude detonation would be the way to go. NO deaths from the actual blast, but the US would be effectively reduced to the stone ages instantly. One high altitude detonation with a larger nuke could take out all of the power grid and electronics in the US. The US has tested high detonation nukes (with smaller ones over the pacific, I believe taking out a power grid 3000 miles away). Iran (or any other nuclear power) would not even need to have super high altitude delivery. A simple unguided rocket launched from a ship off shore would do it, the kind of cheap rockets nearly every country, including Iran already have.

[tritiuminator]

I read a novel a long time ago about the looming destruction of Israel. All the Muslim states were massing on the borders ready to invade. The Israelis sort of informed the major
powers of the world that they had nukes planted in every major city and if Israel goes so does the rest of the world. No one knew for sure if it was true or a bluff, but the invasion
was called off and everyone lived happily ever after.

Hey! It could happen.

No fiction. In 1973 Yom Kippur war, Israel armed 13 nukes and threatened to launch if Nixon didn't airlift supplies.

Lol... Nixon must have enjoyed Golda grabbing him by the balls. Alot like what Bibi is trying to do now with the US.

Check out Israel's deterrence strategy called the Samson Option. This is where I take my hat to Israel for having bigger 'kahunas' then the US.

Moshe Dayan meant it when he said "Israel has to be like a mad dog. Too dangerous to bother".

[Triton]

No fiction. In 1973 Yom Kippur war, Israel armed 13 nukes and threatened to launch if Nixon didn't airlift supplies.

Lol... Nixon must have enjoyed Golda grabbing him by the balls. Alot like what Bibi is trying to do now with the US.

Check out Israel's deterrence strategy called the Samson Option. This is where I take my hat to Israel for having bigger 'kahunas' then the US.

Moshe Dayan meant it when he said "Israel has to be like a mad dog. Too dangerous to bother".

Source please.