In a discussion I started in General Knife Discussion, I did some research and formulated some thoughts about the influence of what I termed "The Instagram Age of Custom Knifemaking" has had on the market for production knives. This discussion led to some thoughts about the market for custom knives and where it is heading. In the General Knife Discussion thread I heard some perspectives that ultimately changed some of the ways in which I interpret some of the issues I brought up in that particular discussion. I would like to have a discussion about custom knives in particular to read some of your perspectives and responses to my thoughts; perhaps my views on custom knives may end up changing as well.
As before, specific examples are here used neither to endorse nor to oppose these knives, manufacturers, or their enthusiasts. These remarks are not intended to suggest that the makers mentioned had or have any alternative in these business practices, nor is it a judgement on these companies, their proprietors or employees, or customers. Neither are they intended to prescribe any course of action either continuing with or departing from these makers' current business practices nor are they intended to suggest that other makers not mentioned do or do not engage in these business practices.
I. The Instagram Age of Custom Knifemaking
What I termed "The Instagram Age of Custom Knifemaking" describes a shift towards knifemaking characterized by three major factors. The way I see it, this shift was caused by the feedback loop of new audiences to custom knives and the ways in which makers respond to their influence. These are the three factors I believe to be influencing this approach to knifemaking:
The new recognition of knives as status symbols, decorative ornaments, displays of wealth or of ingratiation with knifemakers. Enabled by the proliferation of image sharing via forums, Facebook and Instagram, this new recognition placed a newfound priority on the visual impact a knife would have on an audience.
Knives as metaphors for identity. "This is a knife to give as an heirloom to my children." (i.e. I am the type of person who thinks about the future- not only do I have material possessions to pass on to my children, but I also have intangibles such as work ethic, morals, manners, to pass on as well). "This is a knife capable of penetrating body armor or causing massive internal bleeding." (i.e. I am the type of person who has a prepared mind and is unafraid to defend myself, my family or my country from threats using the tools at my disposal). This secondary purpose for knives necessitated extensive feats of branding - in some cases the establishment of a whole subculture - to support these identities.
Knives as toys. As the ease of accessibility increased for folding knives, so too did their potential to be used as toys. Unlike fixed blades and vintage traditional folders, these knives provided tactile as well as aural stimulation that many consumers found irresistible. Knives produced for these consumers must therefore be capable of providing this function.
While to some extent these factors have always been influential in the world of custom knives, I believe that two very recent trends within this hobby (recent referring to the past six to twelve months) support the idea that these factors have come to dominate the scene.
Spinners and fidget toys. The popularity of spinners and fidget toys emphasizes the importance of toy use among the audience of custom knives. They revealed the true extent to which they utilize knives as toys, as these spinners became popular despite the presence of knives which had been all but optimized for toy purposes (flippers with pivot/lockup/detent configurations specifically set up for repeated flicking and flipping), and despite the overwhelmingly negative reaction on social media such as Facebook, Instagram and Youtube to their presence as well as their expense. In a community where a few collectors' disavowal of a maker's knives can result in many rushing to put those knives up for sale, it is significant that spinners' popularity endured despite this overwhelmingly negative reaction.
Patches, beads, tags and apparel. The increase of sales of such paraphernalia by custom makers emphasizes the importance of ingratiation with knifemakers and demonstration of identity and loyalty among this audience. The fact that these knifemakers have such a small sector of the overall luxury goods market is at odds with the sale of merchandise which publicly shows affiliation with these knifemakers. It appears to be the case that this merchandise is primarily purchased to be shown off within Facebook groups, Instagram circles and on forums as it has significance to very few individuals outside of these communities. A Rolex watch looks fancy and is recognizable by many, as is a Montblanc pen or Louis Vuitton bag. But even within the small subset of the luxury goods audience that is custom knife enthusiasts, very few recognize the maker of a particular lanyard bead or the slogan on a patch. In short, they are items which demonstrate a level of initiation to the already initiated.
What does this mean for the future of custom knives? In my view, it demonstrates a restlessness among many who participate in this hobby. This reflects the reason that particular participants became a part of the hobby in the first place - the chance to demonstrate exclusivity and wealth via difficult-to-acquire knives. Now that the market has began to undergo a price correction, and the makers of these knives have produced more knives in circulation, the mere ownership of the knife is in many cases no longer enough. This brings me to another important ongoing trend in the world of custom knives, one that has already resulted in significant changes of attitude among the aforementioned participants in the hobby.
II. Market corrections
What initially spurred this desire to explore this topic was data I collected from forum and Instagram sale posts as well as custom knife dealer listings. As an illustration of how much value may be lost over a small span of time, here are some average price decreases on once popular & commonly exchanged knife models, calculated from pricing data obtained from sale posts on forums and dealer websites. I began collecting this data in 2015 and while it is not all-encompassing nor completely accurate as some sales may have been completed for less than advertised asking price, I believe it demonstrates the trends in question well.
The reason I have gathered data on the forums (blue, green and red), Instagram and dealer websites is due to the tight-knit nature of the knife community. While I recognize that the sale data I have focused on may not represent even a significant fraction of total transactions completed, I feel that the trends they reveal, and the amounts of money and attention involved with the knives these trends concern, are significant enough to use as the basis for some commentary.
The behavior of collectors and dealers with regards to the inflation of secondary market prices are well known and have occurred, in cycles, at several points in the past history of custom knives. However, certain factors are unique to this particular cycle of market correction, and I feel that these factors have the potential to cause severe repercussions.
One factor is the speed and amount in which prices fluctuate for certain popular custom knives. This phenomenon has, I believe, set a dangerous precedent for future interactions with the primary and secondary markets for custom knives. Rapid and severe price increases on a maker's knives attract individuals who are interested in the possibility of profit that is quicker and easier than the slow appreciation of a different maker's knives.
The potential for rapid and severe price decreases on these same knives influence the behaviors these individuals engage in, such as hyping newer makers as quickly as possible to stimulate the same kind of meteoric price rises, and trading off these inflated-value knives for the knives of other makers with a more stable value.
To give an example, many knives produced by Brad Blount, Jeremy Horton, Eric Ochs and Gus Cecchini were traded off at the height of their popularity for other high-value knives produced by makers such as Todd Rexford, Jeremy Marsh, Tom Mayo, among others - all makers whose knives' valuations proved to be much more stable than knives they were traded for. When Brad Blount's, Jeremy Horton's, Eric Ochs's and Gus Cecchini's knives dropped in value on the order of several hundred to over a thousand dollars in a short span of time, the collectors who had traded into them were left with items that not only were worth much less but also had no ready buyers - because collectors were busy hyping up other makers' knives in order to repeat the pattern.
Another factor is the vanishing gap between design, quality and technology levels of production and custom knives. The quality, consistency and precision with which many current production knives are produced has reduced the functional aspect of purchasing and using custom knives more than in any point in the past. Technologies such as integral construction and ball bearing pivots are becoming much more common in production knives, with SLT and pivotless pivot incorporated into recent Zero Tolerance production knives. As custom knifemakers collaborate with production companies at an increasing rate, the availability of their designs increases along with this increase in quality level.
While some may argue that this phenomenon is unlikely to affect the market for custom knives, I can only agree to a certain extent. The segment of the market that is least likely to be affected is most likely those who were interested in custom knives for the aspects of exclusivity, branding and cult of personality in the first place - and they, as noted before, are becoming restless. Meanwhile, the ever narrowing gap in quality and performance corresponds to a decline in custom knives' relevance to users seeking quality and performance, especially in an economy whose future continues to be uncertain.
The final factor is the new market focus on specific pieces rather than on specific makers. Increasingly, the maker's name alone is no longer enough to attract a buyer, an unheard of situation for certain makers in 2012 for example. Often, knives are ignored at prices below maker's price due to factors such as unpopular materials or the absence of features that allow the knives to be easily shown off for photos. Knives with rock patterns, with bead blasted and/or logo-less blades, with TAD logos or styling, with handle materials such as C-Tek or copper, or fixed blades with a long blade length are examples of knives which fail to find interest despite the maker's name.
Additionally, knives which fail to garner a significant social media response are often put up for sale immediately. This can be observed by the number of likes and comments on Instagram and Facebook posts. Under a certain threshold of responses, the knife is nearly guaranteed to be seen in a sale post or a dealer website the following week. Significantly, however, these knives are then ignored in those sale posts, because the social media audience has seen that knife and its lukewarm response and is subsequently uninterested in that knife as it would garner the same lukewarm response had they been the ones to own the knife.
A knife can thus be "condemned" in this way as the seller commonly drops the price to a huge degree to attempt to sell it as quickly as possible, further distancing interest. Often, a specific knife that has demonstrated an abysmally low sale/trade value is no longer of interest to the community as a whole. Knives which were similar to the "condemned" knife also experience a corresponding loss of interest. This loss of interest in similar knives results in loss of social media response to those knives, resulting in those knives being put up for sale - and so the cycle continues.
I would like to hear reactions and alternative perspectives to the ideas I have put forth - I may be off base with some of my interpretations of what is going on. As always, specific examples are here used neither to endorse nor to oppose these knives, manufacturers, or their enthusiasts. These remarks are not intended to suggest that the makers mentioned had or have any alternative in these business practices, nor is it a judgement on these companies, their proprietors or employees, or customers. Neither are they intended to prescribe any course of action either continuing with or departing from these makers' current business practices nor are they intended to suggest that other makers not mentioned do or do not engage in these business practices.
As before, specific examples are here used neither to endorse nor to oppose these knives, manufacturers, or their enthusiasts. These remarks are not intended to suggest that the makers mentioned had or have any alternative in these business practices, nor is it a judgement on these companies, their proprietors or employees, or customers. Neither are they intended to prescribe any course of action either continuing with or departing from these makers' current business practices nor are they intended to suggest that other makers not mentioned do or do not engage in these business practices.
I. The Instagram Age of Custom Knifemaking
What I termed "The Instagram Age of Custom Knifemaking" describes a shift towards knifemaking characterized by three major factors. The way I see it, this shift was caused by the feedback loop of new audiences to custom knives and the ways in which makers respond to their influence. These are the three factors I believe to be influencing this approach to knifemaking:
The new recognition of knives as status symbols, decorative ornaments, displays of wealth or of ingratiation with knifemakers. Enabled by the proliferation of image sharing via forums, Facebook and Instagram, this new recognition placed a newfound priority on the visual impact a knife would have on an audience.
Knives as metaphors for identity. "This is a knife to give as an heirloom to my children." (i.e. I am the type of person who thinks about the future- not only do I have material possessions to pass on to my children, but I also have intangibles such as work ethic, morals, manners, to pass on as well). "This is a knife capable of penetrating body armor or causing massive internal bleeding." (i.e. I am the type of person who has a prepared mind and is unafraid to defend myself, my family or my country from threats using the tools at my disposal). This secondary purpose for knives necessitated extensive feats of branding - in some cases the establishment of a whole subculture - to support these identities.
Knives as toys. As the ease of accessibility increased for folding knives, so too did their potential to be used as toys. Unlike fixed blades and vintage traditional folders, these knives provided tactile as well as aural stimulation that many consumers found irresistible. Knives produced for these consumers must therefore be capable of providing this function.
While to some extent these factors have always been influential in the world of custom knives, I believe that two very recent trends within this hobby (recent referring to the past six to twelve months) support the idea that these factors have come to dominate the scene.
Spinners and fidget toys. The popularity of spinners and fidget toys emphasizes the importance of toy use among the audience of custom knives. They revealed the true extent to which they utilize knives as toys, as these spinners became popular despite the presence of knives which had been all but optimized for toy purposes (flippers with pivot/lockup/detent configurations specifically set up for repeated flicking and flipping), and despite the overwhelmingly negative reaction on social media such as Facebook, Instagram and Youtube to their presence as well as their expense. In a community where a few collectors' disavowal of a maker's knives can result in many rushing to put those knives up for sale, it is significant that spinners' popularity endured despite this overwhelmingly negative reaction.
Patches, beads, tags and apparel. The increase of sales of such paraphernalia by custom makers emphasizes the importance of ingratiation with knifemakers and demonstration of identity and loyalty among this audience. The fact that these knifemakers have such a small sector of the overall luxury goods market is at odds with the sale of merchandise which publicly shows affiliation with these knifemakers. It appears to be the case that this merchandise is primarily purchased to be shown off within Facebook groups, Instagram circles and on forums as it has significance to very few individuals outside of these communities. A Rolex watch looks fancy and is recognizable by many, as is a Montblanc pen or Louis Vuitton bag. But even within the small subset of the luxury goods audience that is custom knife enthusiasts, very few recognize the maker of a particular lanyard bead or the slogan on a patch. In short, they are items which demonstrate a level of initiation to the already initiated.
What does this mean for the future of custom knives? In my view, it demonstrates a restlessness among many who participate in this hobby. This reflects the reason that particular participants became a part of the hobby in the first place - the chance to demonstrate exclusivity and wealth via difficult-to-acquire knives. Now that the market has began to undergo a price correction, and the makers of these knives have produced more knives in circulation, the mere ownership of the knife is in many cases no longer enough. This brings me to another important ongoing trend in the world of custom knives, one that has already resulted in significant changes of attitude among the aforementioned participants in the hobby.
II. Market corrections
What initially spurred this desire to explore this topic was data I collected from forum and Instagram sale posts as well as custom knife dealer listings. As an illustration of how much value may be lost over a small span of time, here are some average price decreases on once popular & commonly exchanged knife models, calculated from pricing data obtained from sale posts on forums and dealer websites. I began collecting this data in 2015 and while it is not all-encompassing nor completely accurate as some sales may have been completed for less than advertised asking price, I believe it demonstrates the trends in question well.
The reason I have gathered data on the forums (blue, green and red), Instagram and dealer websites is due to the tight-knit nature of the knife community. While I recognize that the sale data I have focused on may not represent even a significant fraction of total transactions completed, I feel that the trends they reveal, and the amounts of money and attention involved with the knives these trends concern, are significant enough to use as the basis for some commentary.
- Brad Southard Downing: -$1100
- Tom Mayo TNT: -$550
- Tom Mayo Dr. Death: -$700
- JB Blount (JBB Knives) Arrestor: -$1500
- Peter Carey 50/50 Nitro: -$400
- Emerson Custom CQC13: -$300
- GTC (Gus Cecchini) G-Force II: -$1200
- Tom Krein Alpha: -$600
- Terzuola Titanium A.T.C.F: -$250
- Jeremy Horton Tac 4: -$1200
- Peter Rassenti Snafu: -$450
- Peter Rassenti Druid: -$350
- Deryk Munroe Sigil Mk III: -$700
The behavior of collectors and dealers with regards to the inflation of secondary market prices are well known and have occurred, in cycles, at several points in the past history of custom knives. However, certain factors are unique to this particular cycle of market correction, and I feel that these factors have the potential to cause severe repercussions.
One factor is the speed and amount in which prices fluctuate for certain popular custom knives. This phenomenon has, I believe, set a dangerous precedent for future interactions with the primary and secondary markets for custom knives. Rapid and severe price increases on a maker's knives attract individuals who are interested in the possibility of profit that is quicker and easier than the slow appreciation of a different maker's knives.
The potential for rapid and severe price decreases on these same knives influence the behaviors these individuals engage in, such as hyping newer makers as quickly as possible to stimulate the same kind of meteoric price rises, and trading off these inflated-value knives for the knives of other makers with a more stable value.
To give an example, many knives produced by Brad Blount, Jeremy Horton, Eric Ochs and Gus Cecchini were traded off at the height of their popularity for other high-value knives produced by makers such as Todd Rexford, Jeremy Marsh, Tom Mayo, among others - all makers whose knives' valuations proved to be much more stable than knives they were traded for. When Brad Blount's, Jeremy Horton's, Eric Ochs's and Gus Cecchini's knives dropped in value on the order of several hundred to over a thousand dollars in a short span of time, the collectors who had traded into them were left with items that not only were worth much less but also had no ready buyers - because collectors were busy hyping up other makers' knives in order to repeat the pattern.
Another factor is the vanishing gap between design, quality and technology levels of production and custom knives. The quality, consistency and precision with which many current production knives are produced has reduced the functional aspect of purchasing and using custom knives more than in any point in the past. Technologies such as integral construction and ball bearing pivots are becoming much more common in production knives, with SLT and pivotless pivot incorporated into recent Zero Tolerance production knives. As custom knifemakers collaborate with production companies at an increasing rate, the availability of their designs increases along with this increase in quality level.
While some may argue that this phenomenon is unlikely to affect the market for custom knives, I can only agree to a certain extent. The segment of the market that is least likely to be affected is most likely those who were interested in custom knives for the aspects of exclusivity, branding and cult of personality in the first place - and they, as noted before, are becoming restless. Meanwhile, the ever narrowing gap in quality and performance corresponds to a decline in custom knives' relevance to users seeking quality and performance, especially in an economy whose future continues to be uncertain.
The final factor is the new market focus on specific pieces rather than on specific makers. Increasingly, the maker's name alone is no longer enough to attract a buyer, an unheard of situation for certain makers in 2012 for example. Often, knives are ignored at prices below maker's price due to factors such as unpopular materials or the absence of features that allow the knives to be easily shown off for photos. Knives with rock patterns, with bead blasted and/or logo-less blades, with TAD logos or styling, with handle materials such as C-Tek or copper, or fixed blades with a long blade length are examples of knives which fail to find interest despite the maker's name.
Additionally, knives which fail to garner a significant social media response are often put up for sale immediately. This can be observed by the number of likes and comments on Instagram and Facebook posts. Under a certain threshold of responses, the knife is nearly guaranteed to be seen in a sale post or a dealer website the following week. Significantly, however, these knives are then ignored in those sale posts, because the social media audience has seen that knife and its lukewarm response and is subsequently uninterested in that knife as it would garner the same lukewarm response had they been the ones to own the knife.
A knife can thus be "condemned" in this way as the seller commonly drops the price to a huge degree to attempt to sell it as quickly as possible, further distancing interest. Often, a specific knife that has demonstrated an abysmally low sale/trade value is no longer of interest to the community as a whole. Knives which were similar to the "condemned" knife also experience a corresponding loss of interest. This loss of interest in similar knives results in loss of social media response to those knives, resulting in those knives being put up for sale - and so the cycle continues.
I would like to hear reactions and alternative perspectives to the ideas I have put forth - I may be off base with some of my interpretations of what is going on. As always, specific examples are here used neither to endorse nor to oppose these knives, manufacturers, or their enthusiasts. These remarks are not intended to suggest that the makers mentioned had or have any alternative in these business practices, nor is it a judgement on these companies, their proprietors or employees, or customers. Neither are they intended to prescribe any course of action either continuing with or departing from these makers' current business practices nor are they intended to suggest that other makers not mentioned do or do not engage in these business practices.
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