Backorder City

K

Knife Outlet

Joined
Jan 4, 1999
Messages
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Been having trouble finding your favorite knife? No wonder. The industry backorders are the highest we have ever seen in our 6 years of business in this industry. It's not unusual for the pipeline to be lean after Christmas but not this lean and not this late after Christmas. I would estimate that nearly 1/3 of the products in the entire industry are currently unavailable. The worst situation is with Benchmade with over 80% unavailable. Customers have cancelled over $25,000 worth of Benchmade orders over the past couple of weeks and we still have over $40,000 in Benchmade orders in the backorder pile - most of them will be cancelled soon enough, I would imagine. My apologies to any of our customers who have gotten the dreaded unavailable emails. They are quite common these days.
 
Any idea why the knife industry is in this situation?? Nows a good time to be a custom knifemaker/purveyor I suppose?:confused: :)
 
I think heavy promotion creates demand before the production pipeline is filled.
 
It's hard to make generalizations based on a view from our single company but I'd suggest that demand is probably about normal - not running away, not shrinking, just normal. I've seen a pretty big boost in demand just this week but the problem is older than that and the boost has more to do with the internet itself than with industry trends. The problem is on the supply side and I have no idea what is causing it.

I'd also generalize that it's specific to this industry. The only reason I have to guess that is that I also operate in the kitchenware industry and supply is quite normal over there. A few of the big guns in that industry like Cuisinart were a little slow filling orders the last few weeks but only slow by about a week. I don't know the answers, I'm just feeling the pain.
 
Thank the US Military. Our military orders have gone through the roof lately and I know when I talk with a variety of manufacturers, they are experiencing similar surges in direct purchasing. Frustrating, but what are you going to do?
 
Miltary deployments have a lot to do with the high demand, I'm sure.

It's noteworthy that we are presently in the middle of a major troop & unit rotation in/out of SWA.

Glad I'm not waiting on anything!

:D
 
I think it's more than military, Spark. I remember the original deployment to Iraq in March of 2003. Military orders then were on a real rocket ship ride. We had the biggest March in our history. I remember one aircraft carrier ordered over 200 knives for the pilots. Another one ordered about 150. The SEAL place in California ordered over 100 knives from us. I got orders from units stationed in Iraq every day with more than 20 products per order. I had to negotiate with the postmaster to get him to take all the APO's I had to ship. I told him it was for the troops so he took them all. Supply was pretty normal back then. No problems that I can remember and a tiny backorder pile compared to now.

We have a brisk military business but nothing like it was during the Iraqi Freedom conflict. And supply is awful - way worse than it was back then. There has to be more to it than that. This is the time of year most of the manufacturers introduce the new products and shelve the old ones. Maybe they just coasted here on a smaller inventory than usual. Maybe the improved economy caught them by surprise. I seems strange it would be pretty industry wide. Take care.
 
I'm seeing this in other markets as well. Tactical lights (Surefire, Streamlight, etc.), and of course AR15/M16 parts and accessories (A.R.M.S., KAC, etc.). Be patient everyone (I say this as I anxiously await delivery of my MAXX):D
 
Well, the primary difference between March and now is that manufacturers will allow inventory to dwindle at the end of the year for tax reasons. There have always been problems with getting items just after Xmas & such because of that reason. Combine that with the troop deployments in January (instead of March so the system has no time to catch up) and the direct orders, and you have a sudden supply deficit.
 
I wonder if part of the problem, however, is with marketing. It seems to me that in the pst couple of years, there has been a lot more use of showing prototypes earlier and earlier, taking pre-orders, and promoting the development of a gazillion new locks and such. I think the knife industry is using the old Surefire tactics! How many folks have you heard complain that the Surefire catalogs in the past few years were more like big teases, with products in there which would then not be developed, supposed release dates broken all the time, etc. I remember getting an AVON catalog here in November which had some Valentine's Day stuff ion the cover, with a note to shop early for Valentine's Day... 6 WEKS BEFORE CHRISTMAS!

Anyone think there is something to this?
 
Fred, just wondering how much of that 80% bo from Benchmade is for just released items from the catalog?
 
80% of the Benchmade sku's shown to be current are unavailable. It's been over 50% unavailable for months. It's just a little worse now. I hope the problem is that demand is so high they can't deal with it. That's better than the alternative would be.

What did the SEAL's buy? Why Leatherman Waves, of course. We've sold lots of them to the SEAL teams over the years and to some Air Force units as well.

The Navy squadrons aboard the carriers bought Cold Steel Recon Scouts as pilot survival knives during the bombing of Baghdad. Just goes to show that calling something a pilot survival knife doesn't necessarily endear it to pilots. The Army and Marine units in Iraq bought about anything you could name and still do - mostly fixed blade fighters but lots of tactical folders as well. Today I sent everything from a Buck Metro to an Extrema Ratio Fulcrum II to Iraq. You name it, they use it. Take care.
 
Just a thought but the American dollar has been trading quite a bit lower lately and it has been hurting foreign companies that quote orders in American dollars. Are the models in short supply made offshore? If so I would suspect that the suppliers are not eager to deliver and be paid in a discounted dollar.
 
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