The truth is, you just never know. When I was looking for a Strider SMF two years ago, none turned up in almost a month of watching the forum. Some did, but virtually for MSRP and/or tanto blade or that ugly coyote brown color. But when I don't need it, and looking for a Strider PT three weeks ago, I saw no less than three SMFs, at below MSRP, one of them practically across the street from me (next major city over).
The way I look at it, it really comes down to "how much time am I willing to waste watching for one?" I mean, OK, I could have saved $100. Is $100 worth checking the trade forum 5-10 times a day for a month? Two months?
On occasion you get a fantastic deal, but the way I see it this works far better for spontaneous purchases rather than looking for something specific. If you're looking for 2-3 knives, it'll take you months to find them at a reasonable price and/or configuration you want. But if you're not looking for anything specific, you can grab some really sweet deals.
Maybe I'm just not as patient as I should be.
