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- Mar 26, 2002
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This is a long post from my friend in Nepal.
"Dear Bill & Anne,
I have been getting a lot of queries from clients this past week about my take on the tumultuous situation here in South Asia. I will paste below the "op-ed" from, as I figured you all might also wonder what the view from ring side looks like on the Indo-Pak fight.
As usual I have to wonder if I'm taking things too lightly and my optimism is just a way of shielding my self from the implications of what an all out war with nukes would mean to me and my own little world - expat life style, etc. I hate to think about it. Sure we could get out fast enough, but what about our household, our dogs, our Asian based business. It does worry me, but I just stick with the resolve that "it can't happen". Well we all know the unthinkable does happen with increasing frequency in our troubled world... still I hope to be settled right here, until I see fit to leave. A couple of folks have asked if we felt safe here. Anyway, here's the post:
We do feel safe here. Of course in Nepal, the most immediate problem is the Maoist insurgency, and its a serious matter indeed. Lately the army here seems to be taking a serious toll on the Maoists, and the Maoists seem to be hurting. Its hard to get a real sense of how much of their support is genuine, and how much of it is simply based on intimidation. Quite a lot of it does seem to be fear based. People are afraid to speak out against the Maoists in the more remote areas as they have a reputation for heinously violent retribution.
As for India and Pakistan... well its a very serious situation as well. However it is not a new situation, and I doubt that it will go nuclear. I wouldn't be surprised to see conventional escalation though. India has a BJP (Nationalist Hindu leaning political party) government in power now, and they have subsidiary wings - VHP, Shivsena, etc. which are fairly fanatical Hindu groups who love to fan the flames of this sort of Hindu vs. Muslim and India vs. Pakistan situation for their own political ends. Now having said all that... Pakistan is a pariah nation (of course there are millions of good citizens there, but I'm speaking from the "actions of the nation/govt." perspective) , led by a general who took power in a bloodless military coup and who has self-assumed the title "President". Sometimes Mushareef seems reasonable, but he has a lot of domestic pressure on him and he is, in the end, a military man who does military things. The Pakistani posturing on controlling the activities of militants and terrorist outfits is just lip service in many cases. That goes for Talib / Al Qaeda, and Kashmiri groups and other hardline militant groups that they claim to have no connection to, but obviously do. The attack on the Indian Army base that set off this most recent escalation was outrageous and heinous, as many of the victims were women and children who were family of soldiers living on the base. Senseless.
It is not surprising that India would retaliate, it would not surprise me even if a non-BHP govt. was in power. In fact, I think they have shown considerable restraint all things considered. If India and Pakistan did go at it, India would thrash them. In strictly financial terms India is much better prepared to fight - Pakistan has a tottering economy. India's army is much larger, and much better equipped. There in lies one of the great risks. Pakistan could be beaten and backed into a corner where they use the nuclear option as a "we're beaten but we are taking you down with us" act of desperation.
Now, as I mentioned above, this is an old problem - the Kashmir issue. 50 years and two all out wars, and plenty of proxy war related to Kashmir. I don't think it will be all that different this time. Still, the unthinkable seems to happen all the time these days, and I think that is what troubles a lot of people and keeps them from taking the situation too lightly. It is very serious. I also would expect some kind of "dramatic" intervention by.... well, the usual intervener - the US, but also a coalition of other countries. A nuclear war would just be too damaging to the rest of the world, to allow it to happen. Again though, that is just my opinion... I could be way off in terms of the breadth of choice and ability to carry out that choice that India and Pakistan have. The US has been stroking Pakistan's ego, and handling them gently since the events of September. Obviously for the US's own reasons. I doubt that they have been fooled by the Pak govt. claims of non-involvement in militant groups that use Pakistan for everything from staging grounds, to a convenient arms bazaar. Also the US and France both conducted joint military exercises with India this past month, so it isn't too hard to figure out which of the two countries is viewed as a more reliable ally by the West.
Bottom line... it wouldn't surprise me to see escalation of the situation, and some real ugliness, but I have my doubts about it going nuclear. Its so unthinkable. I guess we all just tend to cling to that sliver of optimism just because it is so unthinkable. Unfortunately it is not impossible, so we can only pray for peace and cooler heads to prevail."
Let's pray for Steve, his household, family, our kamis and a peaceful end to this situation.
Bill and Anne Marsh
"Dear Bill & Anne,
I have been getting a lot of queries from clients this past week about my take on the tumultuous situation here in South Asia. I will paste below the "op-ed" from, as I figured you all might also wonder what the view from ring side looks like on the Indo-Pak fight.
As usual I have to wonder if I'm taking things too lightly and my optimism is just a way of shielding my self from the implications of what an all out war with nukes would mean to me and my own little world - expat life style, etc. I hate to think about it. Sure we could get out fast enough, but what about our household, our dogs, our Asian based business. It does worry me, but I just stick with the resolve that "it can't happen". Well we all know the unthinkable does happen with increasing frequency in our troubled world... still I hope to be settled right here, until I see fit to leave. A couple of folks have asked if we felt safe here. Anyway, here's the post:
We do feel safe here. Of course in Nepal, the most immediate problem is the Maoist insurgency, and its a serious matter indeed. Lately the army here seems to be taking a serious toll on the Maoists, and the Maoists seem to be hurting. Its hard to get a real sense of how much of their support is genuine, and how much of it is simply based on intimidation. Quite a lot of it does seem to be fear based. People are afraid to speak out against the Maoists in the more remote areas as they have a reputation for heinously violent retribution.
As for India and Pakistan... well its a very serious situation as well. However it is not a new situation, and I doubt that it will go nuclear. I wouldn't be surprised to see conventional escalation though. India has a BJP (Nationalist Hindu leaning political party) government in power now, and they have subsidiary wings - VHP, Shivsena, etc. which are fairly fanatical Hindu groups who love to fan the flames of this sort of Hindu vs. Muslim and India vs. Pakistan situation for their own political ends. Now having said all that... Pakistan is a pariah nation (of course there are millions of good citizens there, but I'm speaking from the "actions of the nation/govt." perspective) , led by a general who took power in a bloodless military coup and who has self-assumed the title "President". Sometimes Mushareef seems reasonable, but he has a lot of domestic pressure on him and he is, in the end, a military man who does military things. The Pakistani posturing on controlling the activities of militants and terrorist outfits is just lip service in many cases. That goes for Talib / Al Qaeda, and Kashmiri groups and other hardline militant groups that they claim to have no connection to, but obviously do. The attack on the Indian Army base that set off this most recent escalation was outrageous and heinous, as many of the victims were women and children who were family of soldiers living on the base. Senseless.
It is not surprising that India would retaliate, it would not surprise me even if a non-BHP govt. was in power. In fact, I think they have shown considerable restraint all things considered. If India and Pakistan did go at it, India would thrash them. In strictly financial terms India is much better prepared to fight - Pakistan has a tottering economy. India's army is much larger, and much better equipped. There in lies one of the great risks. Pakistan could be beaten and backed into a corner where they use the nuclear option as a "we're beaten but we are taking you down with us" act of desperation.
Now, as I mentioned above, this is an old problem - the Kashmir issue. 50 years and two all out wars, and plenty of proxy war related to Kashmir. I don't think it will be all that different this time. Still, the unthinkable seems to happen all the time these days, and I think that is what troubles a lot of people and keeps them from taking the situation too lightly. It is very serious. I also would expect some kind of "dramatic" intervention by.... well, the usual intervener - the US, but also a coalition of other countries. A nuclear war would just be too damaging to the rest of the world, to allow it to happen. Again though, that is just my opinion... I could be way off in terms of the breadth of choice and ability to carry out that choice that India and Pakistan have. The US has been stroking Pakistan's ego, and handling them gently since the events of September. Obviously for the US's own reasons. I doubt that they have been fooled by the Pak govt. claims of non-involvement in militant groups that use Pakistan for everything from staging grounds, to a convenient arms bazaar. Also the US and France both conducted joint military exercises with India this past month, so it isn't too hard to figure out which of the two countries is viewed as a more reliable ally by the West.
Bottom line... it wouldn't surprise me to see escalation of the situation, and some real ugliness, but I have my doubts about it going nuclear. Its so unthinkable. I guess we all just tend to cling to that sliver of optimism just because it is so unthinkable. Unfortunately it is not impossible, so we can only pray for peace and cooler heads to prevail."
Let's pray for Steve, his household, family, our kamis and a peaceful end to this situation.
Bill and Anne Marsh
