Future Forum

Lorien

Lorien

Nose to the Grindstone
Moderator
Knifemaker / Craftsman / Service Provider
Joined
Dec 5, 2005
Messages
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In light of the rapidly developing situations regarding COVID- 19, it occurred to me that we will all be facing changes, both as collectors, makers and industry folk over the coming weeks and months, and perhaps well into the future.

I thought that it might be useful to have a place where we can frankly discuss our concerns and areas of opportunity, and catalogue changes as they occur in order to track them and deal with them in some way, as a community.

I expect there to be a great many contentious ideas thrown around, but please treat each other with civility and respect. Obviously any posts regarding politics, religion or things of that sort will be disappeared into Bladeforums' nether regions.

Bladeforums has always been a leader in this community/industry, as a hub for information and communication. It struck me that we might need this forum, as a community, now more than ever.
 
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It may pass, but in the meantime, livelihoods and incomes are DEEPLY affected.

I have just been informed that the Arkansas Knife Show scheduled for next weekend has now been cancelled. There are a LOT of attending makers with knives which represent their income stream. Thank goodness for online views and sales!

I could not believe how costly it would be to fly to Little Rock from the New York airports. But we booked three weeks ago Almost $1000 in tickets for Susan and myself.) I did NOT purchase 'flight insurance'. Usually a well-known scam, and because I was already out this much, another $90 was silly. Today it's not so silly. Silly ME. :(

My other job (Rowing instructor and maintenance) has closed for 2+ weeks.

Our world is also affected. Thanks for the outlet to talk it over.
 
I am writing to you from Madrid, Spain.
We are in the thick of the covid19. Everything closed except food stores and pharmacies, for the moment. The country in a state of alarm and my region will be closed. Do not take it as a joke, it is a very serious thing.
We did not think it was a serious thing and now we are going to pay for it with health, lives and destroyed economy.
Be cautious and do not trust what the rulers say.
Imagine a very bad situation.
 
Don't think this thread will go over well here, at least not yet. I've been noticing a pretty big trend on IG from the knifemaking/collecting community who as a whole are pretty much brushing off any concern about what's going on. "it's just the flu", a "hoax", "ive been through worse" yada yada yada. a lot posting jokes left and right about it, downplaying the severity of what's happening.

Once they see local cases around them, their sales start diminishing with so much money lost globally in last few weks, no shows to attend, and some of our old timers in the knife making community dying from it, that will likely change. But it seems nothing short of that will. I too wasn't too worried, but im from puget sound, ground zero here in the USA for this. 31 dead within 5 miles of me now. and the region is a ghost town at this point. all schools closed, all events cancelled, nobody on the streets. this is something the world hasn't seen in over 100 years, and people need to wake the hell up.
 
I was going to attend Blade for the first time this year...I had put aside all of my 2020 knife funds and a portion of the 2019 funds...Marge and I started following this Virus in early January and by mid-February we were concerned enough that we cancelled our reservations...I’m disappointed but Marge has respiratory issues and I have diabetes and heart issues...we are both in our 70s (me - pretty late 70s) so we feel like this is the right decision...I expect the ICCE show might postpone or cancel...

BUT, I now have some money to spend and I will be looking on line...

Cheers/bg
 
I think it's a great idea to support makers that will be left with inventory, just don't become one of those that "can't let a crisis go to waste", low balling. I ordered a knife from a maker last week and will be ordering another within a week, both makers I met on here. My daughter had a great idea, restaurants are having a hard time, she suggested buying gift certificates to help them out for now.

We haven't let this effect us, we just go on. I have a flight in early April, nieces wedding in NJ, hoping that both the flight and the wedding aren't cancelled!
 
The worst thing any body can do is panic.

I already have tickets and hotel rooms too. If I miss a show or two, I will be disappointed and it will cost me a few thousand dollars. In the overall scheme of things, that's no be deal.

16,000 people died of the flu last season. Up to 30,000 may die from the flu this season, with 14,000 all ready dead. Just to put it into perspective, as I write this, 5,798 people have died from the Corona Virus.

Be smart, do the right thing, and after this is over, everyone will start going to shows again and buying knives and getting pictures taken.

BTW, Coop, I am sending you a new knife for pitchers in the next day or two, some of my best work ever.

I live, and have my store in a tourist town. This town and my livelihood depend heavily on tourism (this is supposed to be the busy season for Chinese tourists to come see the northern lights), but I'm not too worried. I'm using this extra time to catch up on orders and do some of my best work, instead of talking to so many tourists all the time.

Life goes on, we're advertising more on social media and posting more materials than we ever did (now that we have more time). Come on people, be positive, be proactive.

The only things that are permanent are if you jump out a window, or cash out your 401k. Do the things you need to do so that you don't actually catch the virus.

Heck, I've been charged by grizzly bears, six in all. This ante even scary.
 
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There appears to be a fairly large difference between what the CDC has been recommending and what is being reported.

Sure COVID-19 is a problem and a fairly significant one, but there needs to be a balance.
A certain level of paranoia in daily living isn't a bad thing. But it needs to be kept in perspective.

I'm retired so I'm laying low partly by choice and partly because I have family members that are practically crying if I don't. However if I need to go somewhere, I go.
I have curtailed some activities, such as the gym, but I'm not going to sit behind closed doors for days on end either.

I follow the CDC's recommendations on hand cleaning and avoiding those that are ill. Other than that I do what I need to do. Sure there's a chance I'll get it. but there's also a chance I'll get hit by a car.
 
I closed my business, (temporarily) for the most part, although I'll be able to do work on an appointment basis. My plan for any spare time I have off, as it relates to knives, will be to make the most of my Skillshare account and start learning how to use some graphics programs.

Part of the reason I created this thread was remembering something I'd stated years ago here in this forum, (which didn't go over very well at the time) that the custom knife industry was in a bubble. Watching knives inflate in value from $500 to $2000 seemed unsustainable to me at the time and I convinced myself that things would eventually collapse. Over the years I looked back on my words and felt like maybe I was being a little too 'sky is falling' minded. Indeed, after the recession, the industry came roaring back hotter than ever and my fears seemed unfounded.

Well, at this point, I'm not sure what to think. I guess we'll see with each passing day what changes will occur. I'll admit to being a little catastrophic in my thinking, but I really wonder what the market for hand made knives and other luxury items is going to look like in a couple months. For collectors, we might be entering a moment of opportunity again, where pricing in the secondary market starts to decline. The last period of time when I was able to buy some knives was shortly after the recession, where the Canadian dollar was almost at par and the market was saturated with good deals. I don't think I'll have the liquidity to take advantage if we're entering a similar phase, but I have the feeling that the market will positively impact savvy buyers.

If that's the case, some makers and collectors are going to start hurting pretty bad. Collectors who are forced to sell at a loss could lose their shirts, and the makers who rely on the secondary market to bolster the value of their work may find themselves undermined by a flood of knives whose value is now greatly discounted. Anyway, these are just thoughts, I don't pretend to know what's going to happen. I just wish the best for our community and hope that not too many of our peeps suffer much.

They say that if you're going through hell, keep going.
 
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Lorien said:
I closed my business, (temporarily) for the most part, although I'll be able to do work on an appointment basis. My plan for any spare time I have off, as it relates to knives, will be to make the most of my Skillshare account and start learning how to use some graphics programs.

Part of the reason I created this thread was remembering something I'd stated here in this forum, (which didn't go over very well at the time) that the custom knife industry was in a bubble. Watching knives inflate in value from $500 to $2000 seemed unsustainable to me at the time and I convinced myself that things would eventually collapse. Over the years I looked back on my words and felt like maybe I was being a little too 'sky is falling' minded. Indeed, after the recession, the industry came roaring back hotter than ever and my fears seemed unfounded.

Well, at this point, I'm not sure what to think. I guess we'll see with each passing day what changes will occur. I'll admit to being a little catastrophic in my thinking, but I really wonder what the market for hand made knives and other luxury items is going to look like in a couple months. For collectors, we might be entering a moment of opportunity again, where pricing in the secondary market starts to decline. The last period of time when I was able to buy some knives was shortly after the recession, where the Canadian dollar was almost at par and the market was saturated with good deals. I don't think I'll have the liquidity to take advantage if we're entering a similar phase, but I have the feeling that the market will positively impact savvy buyers.

If that's the case, some makers and collectors are going to start hurting pretty bad. Collectors who are forced to sell at a loss could lose their shirts, and the makers who rely on the secondary market to bolster the value of their work may find themselves undermined by a flood of knives whose value is now greatly discounted. Anyway, these are just thoughts, I don't pretend to know what's going to happen. I just wish the best for our community and hope that not too many of our peeps suffer much.

They say that if you're going through hell, keep going.
Click to expand...
I say, don't do anything rash, don't sell your investments be they in the stock market or in knives.
 
The irony is that China will probably still be buying knives while we panic...strange world we live in for sure. Folks should keep their heads, wash their hands, and take care not to wipe with poison ivy if the toilet paper runs out...buy an ear of corn, eat it and wipe with the cob
 
Well, I happen to be one of those "old and infirmed" at 87 and history of heart and respiratory problems, so I will reluctantly, voluntarily not show up at any of the knife shows in the near future. I do see that two of them rescheduled so I might still be able to attend those. While I may not be present at the shows, I am still very much "at your service" and the US Mail, UPS, and FedEx are all woking also, so to some degree, I'll be able to serve my friends as usual.

Paul
 
With more people staying home I think there might be an upsurge in part-time makers making more knives. Don't know how that will effect prices, etc. if at all.
 
This has dominated my work life recently
I work at an academic medical center and we have built out an enormous infrastructure for this
critical care space is the major issue
PPE is in major shortage (and a storm destroyed a lot of our supplies), that is a concern


For most people and fortunately for children this will just be a rather contagious respiratory virus. Some are asymptomatic, others it is like a bad flu

testing is a problem, even at a center that has expertise in virology, testing is slow and not as simple as people think. that will improve over the next few weeks.

some will get viral pneumonia and need oxygen.
some will get really sick. age 60+, chronic health conditions are risk factors. we need to protect these vulnerable populations. no country in the word has enough critical care capacity for a large outbreak like this

i have friends and fellow nurses and doctors who have covid-19. they are doing ok. they did not get it from work, but it will happen. i am certain i will get it as well at some point. i am at some increased risk for complications but i will continue to care for others as long as i can

we need to practice social distancing and care for each other. the cdc website is excellent. i have good friends who work there and they are really doing good work and listen to what they have to say. the length and severity of this will really depend on people being careful and doing the right thing.

if you are sick, self isolate!

as an aside, my wife has been out of town and i have worked every day for 2 weeks. when i went to the store to get laundry detergent to clean my scrubs it was clear panic buying had occurred. just buy what you need. hoarding will hurt others
 
while this is not "the end of the world" this will cause significant problems if people don't take it seriously

the economic effects are already being felt

the death rate will be hopefully only 1% but could be higher. it is higher than that now (5%?) and part of the issue is we don't know the denominator (ie how many people actually have it). that is actually pretty high for something that will infect so many.

and complicating that there can be a long delay between being infectious and having symptoms. up to 2 weeks. i think the real rise in hospitalized patients could be in 2-3 weeks in the usa

for symptomatic people in high risk categories the death rate has been estimated to be 10%. who (world health organization) is calculating 5%. those are sobering numbers


also most people requiring hospitalization or icu care are having that happen day 7-10 of illness
 
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