Joss,
From my more recent observations, I've gotten the same impression as you have. Things appear to be heating up. But that doesn't mean there are no bargains to be found.
In the world of forged fixed blades, we've been able to observe knives like a Fisk Sendero go from the $400 range a few years ago to $600 or so last year to perhaps even more than that now (Les Robertson, I believe, will be offering one soon, but I'm not sure what price he will be asking). This knife may be a good benchmark because it's very desireable within the collector community and trades frequently enough that we can collect some good data points. That said, there's no shortage of makers who continue to offer tremendous value for their work. There is a very large group of talented Apprentice Smiths and Journeyman Smiths in the ABS who are very much worth looking at.
Many of these new makers represent a new breed of smiths, those who seek to raise the bar and build upon the discoveries and successes of their predecessors. I often find it much more exciting to engage one of these talented, enthusiastic young makers than to chase a highly collectible "benchmark" product in the secondary market.
Dan Farr, Burt Foster, Dan Hockensmith, Nick Wheeler, Dennis Riley, Jason Knight, and Jon Christensen are just a few that come to mind. Each of these ABS smiths, in my opinion, offers exceptional value to the forged fixed blade collector. Then there are overseas makers like Shawn McIntyre, Jason Cutter, Gustavo Vilar, Luciano Dorneles, Rodrigo Sfreddo, Ricardo Vilar, and countless others as well, who offer the collector an excellent opportunity to buy a knife that will perform, but perhaps also one day appreciate significantly in value.
Outside of the forged knife market, there are tremendous technology and productivity improvements that are helping to keep the price of certain types of knives well under control. The younger kin of more established and collectible makers, like Kit Carson's Mike Obenauf, or John Smith's Aaron Frederick, build upon the experience of their mentors. Larry Davidson and RJ Martin, meanwhile, use their twenty-first century equipment and technical expertise to make ultra precision, ultra cool knives at affordable prices. The quality of their work is simply stunning, and would be impossible to deliver at their prices even just a few years ago.
So while there does seem to have been a spike in the prices fetched by certain knives in the secondary and dealer markets recently, there's no shortage of great knives at bargain prices out there. All you have to do is look.
