Huge User Market Still Unaware? & Mint Example

[Timstools]

Heres a Thought
Schrade NYs biggest market was not collectors but users!!! Correct???

How many users are aware the Schrade USA closed in Mid 2004. 1 to 5 percent of total users?? I guessing that this is correct and reasonable to assume?? What will happen to Schrade prices when the other 95 percent who arent aware find out they cant easily get a replacement in years to come?? Will they become collectors also??.

Its only conjecture but consider this I had never purchased a Schrade prior to their closure. The only one I had was a was a weapon I had confiscated off some guy and he never came back to collect it.

I discovered Schrade had closed about a year after their closure since then Ive invested a lot of money.
What happens to prices when the users become collectors as I have? How many still dont know??

Imagine how huge Schrades market would have been if even 25% of there user market had become collectors and instead of only investing $50 dollars on a user they each had invested $500 to $1000 or more on a small collection???

It is mint examples that will be rare in the years to come as most of Schrades knives today are in the pockets of those who use them, by those who for the most part are probably still unaware of Schrades closure in mid 2004.

Of the total number of Schrade NY knives distributed worldwide how many would be in mint new condition? 1% or only 1% of 1%??? What happens when demand for that 1% percent increases with no new mint examples being produced???

 

[Bob W]

1 to 5 percent of total users?

I'd guess that at least 50% of all regular buyers are aware of Schrade's closing, for the simple reason that they haven't been able to buy new knives in three years.

consider this I had never purchased a Schrade prior to their closure.

I had a few, but I see your point. I've bought dozens since the factory closed, and at prices sometimes above the original retail price or m.s.r.p.

Imagine how huge Schrades market would have been if even 25% of there user market had become collectors and instead of only investing $50 dollars on a user they each had invested $500 to $1000 or more on a small collection???

I expect that's an exageration. 25% of Schrade's ex-market might be interested in having an extra or two put away for safekeeping, but most of them probably already do. And only a very small % might take up the hobby of "Collecting" Schrade knives.

It is mint examples that will be rare in the years to come as most of Schrades knives today are in the pockets of those who use them, by those who for the most part are probably still unaware of Schrades closure in mid 2004.

I'd guess that nearly all of the mint-condition Schrades being sold are being set aside for safekeeping. Even a large % of the previously used knives are likely being put away.

One other thing that you fail to take into account is the price of collectible Schrade knives relative to other knives. Buy three or four new Benchmade knives, or one rare Schrade? Buy a handmade custom knife, or a plastic-handled factory knife that was made by the thousands?

Just some thoughts.
Best Wishes,
-Bob

 

[Codger_64]

Good questions. No doubt there are far more Schrade collectors now than there were three or four years ago. I was a Schrade user long before I became a collector. And as a user, my knives generally last for years, one of the main reasons my father, grandfather, and I always bought and used Schrades. Replacing a lost or broken knife was not a huge deal because they were plentiful and easy to find, and relatively inexpensive for a good tool.

I'd think that most of today's knife buyers don't give a flip about longevity of a company or it's products. My brother-in-law came over this weekend and seeing my knife display, had to proudly reach into his pocket and show me the 'treasure' he won in a poker game. I guess I disappointed him when I didn't drool over his new "Ozark Trails" China knife, but he honestly did not see the difference between that 'knife-like-object', and the LB7 in my display.

I feel like 60% of the potential Schrade customers will shrug, and reach for the next similar knife. Tayors fit here. Maybe 20% will actually look for a Schrade, and find one or settle for another brand of quality knife. 10% might add Schrades to their collections, if they are collectors already, or users who decide to become collectors. The remaining 10% will buy Schrades to try to make a buck, find out that penny stocks do better, and go on to the next fad. The core of Schrade collectors is smaller than one might think. Certainly not enough to support even a moderatly sized cutlery.

It is true that natural attrition will cause mint in the package Schrades to become increasingly hard to find. But we are really yet to see the 'second wave' of sellers who bought on expectations of a boom in prices, but will start unloading their hoards soon. And bored collectors shifting their interests as well. An eBay search just now returned "1624 items found for schrade". Some are Taylors. Some are just tricky marketers dropping Schrade in as a key-word to increase hits. But there are still a good number of genuine Imperial Schrades out there.

So...what is .5% of seventy five million knives? 375,000?

Michael

 

[Timstools]

Bob
Every one of the points I made was a deliberate exageration, see the questions marks after them???

I was merely asking a question that does deserve consideration.

It is actually impossble to really to know exactly how many users there are out there at present who still dont know about Schrades NY closing down.

Yes true, Many of them may buy few a few Schrades (I didnt know any) every few years and may already be aware that Schrade has closed down but there are still many who would buy only 1 or 2 knives in 10 years or even a lifetime so it will be sometime yet before we can get a true indication of what demand will be.

My point is this:
Even if 50 percent of users are unaware of the Schrades closure as you guess then you only need a small percentage of them to start collecting for mint peices for supply to outstrip demand by huge proportions.

I expect it is far more than 50 percent still unaware but time will tell.

 

[Bob W]

Every one of the points I made was a deliberate exageration, see the questions marks after them???
I was merely asking a question that does deserve consideration.

I agree. It's a very interesting topic and I'm curious to read others' thoughts on it. My comments weren't intended to slap your's down, but merely to present my own opinion, exhausting my fortune-telling skills.

My point is this:
Even if 50 precent of users are unaware of the Schrades closure as you guess then you only need a small percentage of them to start collecting for mint peices for supply to outstrip demand by huge proportions.

Yes, I think that's correct. But the "glass ceiling" to collector values is still the resale prices relative to other knives on the market. Someone would like to start collecting Old Timers but finds out the price for a mint 34OT is $100 (an exageration, but perhaps in the future...) and they'll immediately forget about it.

-Bob

 

[Timstools]

Thanks for your input Bob, I value your opinion! I was stirring the pot to get to the meat, so your comments may have helped!!

I think it would be interesting to see how much of the total World market Schrade supplied in a single production year. Schrade would probably have to consider both current Schrade users who were regular customers and new prospective buyers in a production year to meet demand.

I believe the only reason prices havent increased more rapidly to date is because of Factory surplus stock being sold off but this wont last.

For those whose are in doupt check how many factory prototypes are in Schrade listings against Buck Listings. Ive been keeping a careful eye on it for some time now. A conservative estimate would be 4 to 5 every 10 days for 6 months and almost none in Buck knives on ebay.

That is largely if not entirely due to factory Prototypes being sold off now that Schrade has closed. Prototypes are held in the factorys own stash and are not normally available to the public!! Whatever other factory and dealer surplus there is (lots of it) I cant predict how long it will take to sell but it is sure not to last indefinitely.

It will be interesting to see what happens to demand for mint new pieces once this occurs a demand the Schrade has supllied for over 100 years and even now indirectly continues to supply.

Regards Tim

 

[Bob W]

That is largely if not entirely due to factory Prototypes being sold off now that Schrade has closed. Prototypes are held in the factorys own stash and are not normally available to the public!! Whatever other factory and dealer surplus there is (lots of it) I cant predict how long it will take to sell but it is sure not to last indefinitely.

SMKW made a comment in one of their recent auction listings that said they are getting down to the last few items from the Schrade factory display.

believe the only reason prices havent increased more rapidly to date is because of Factory surplus stock being sold off but this wont last.

Not only was the market flooded with super-low closeout specials when the factory closed, but it seemed that mountains of knives simultaneously came out of peoples' closets. That's the unpredictable factor. How many people hoarded the closeouts, far more than they intended to keep for their own collection needs? How many thousands and thousands of vintage knives are sitting in drawers, garages, and closets that will continue to be gradually released into the market.

And once (if) the faucet stops flowing, what happens to collector interest? Will casual collectors move on to other things, leaving the serious collectors to fight over the "good ones"? Or, as you suggest, will even more people begin collecting?

-Bob

 

[Timstools]

I think demand will still be there. Schrade was just too big. 20 years ago when I was a kid just out of school in this little tiny corner of the world I used to go down to the corner store to buy a knife or 2 and the only knives I can recal from that time were Buck and Schrade and perhaps Puma also.
Thanks Bob
Regards Tim

 

[Larry303]

..just a point I have noticed for some time, whenever someone whips out a pocket knife to cut a plastic tie,or rope or whatever and I notice its a Schrade I invariably say ..thats a nice LB8 Schrade with Staglon Handles...had it long...you wouldnt be using it like that if you saw what they are bringing on Ebay.. and they invariably say,its a what with what? They either bought it from our Stock Firms as a user or were given it by Uncle Cyril and rarely do they acknowledge its a SChrade. Our local fishing shop proprietor just cut his finger badly binding a rod ferrile and he pulled it out to show me "the little bastard" that did it....I said that's not a bastard its a 885UH with Staglon handles and great little knife if you dont cut yourself with them...he knew what it was but was staggered that I knew,noone has ever seen my collection except my brother who is also a knifeaholic who I have to frisk everytime he leaves my place....always reckons he gets moist just looking at my knives! My point is very very few average people in the street know anything about Schrade but Ebay is turning people into armchair experts motivated by financial gain and very little appreciation of a real knife. Hoo Roo

 

[Timstools]

Not only was the market flooded with super-low closeout specials when the factory closed, but it seemed that mountains of knives simultaneously came out of peoples' closets. That's the unpredictable factor. How many people hoarded the closeouts, far more than they intended to keep for their own collection needs? How many thousands and thousands of vintage knives are sitting in drawers, garages, and closets that will continue to be gradually released into the market.

Yes there is an unpredictable factor, many of these may eventually just get passed on from one collector to another (recycling) many of them dont want to pay too much so that could keep prices down.

Although if Schrade supplied 5% (dont know figures) of the current worldwide market with new Shrades in a production year then where are these new Shrades going to come from??

I can only assume that all the current new Schrades that have been hoarded still only represent a small number of the total Schrade knives Distributed in homes worldwide over 10 or 20 years and that given sufficient time these hoarded stockplies may become highly sought after???

I cant be emphatic on it as I dont have the exact data, it seems a reasonable assumption given that Schrade can know no longer supply the market with new peices indefinitely. But then their powerful marketing tool is not there either?

 

[sheathmaker]

Okay, here's one scenario I'm actually positive about. I joined the forum a couple of years ago oddly to get information on how to sell my one and only mint Schrade (I think it was a 51OT). Oh I did have a stag Millenium Schrade/D'Holder also. Since that time I have an accumulation/collection of 22 Schrade Knives, all of which are mint NIB with all documentation papers etc, because I won't buy anything less. I would sell any one or all of them, but this is the first time I've mentioned that fact. I don't actively solicit the sale of any of my many knives. Having said that,...whoever buys one of my Schrades will REALLY know he's been to the store, because they won't be cheap.

Now apply that scenario to whatever you want to try to prove. I will buy more if the price is right for me and the knife strikes my fancy. I will release them back into the market if the price obtained trips my trigger. I will hold them indefinitely because they don't eat anything and I enjoy looking at them in my display cases. Multiply me by however may thousand there are like me and if you are like me, you still don't have any idea of what's going to happen.

I still like it because I/we can come here and have discussions such as this and share Schrade and other knife talk any time.

Paul

 

[Timstools]

I will release them back into the market if the price obatined trips my trigger. I will hold them indefinitely because they don't eat anything and I enjoy looking at them in my display cases

Paul I am same as you I enjoy them!!

I dont intend getting rid of my Schrades for a long time so I personally am not very concerned if a projected rise in value is very slow or minimal. I think its a good way to be.

If they do increase in value more than I anticipated then it will be a nice bonus but Im really not too concerned as I didnt primarily buy them for profit as I enjoy them. Besides I hope to have them around for at least another 20 years?

How about others how long do you intend keeping them??

 

[Bob W]

How about others how long do you intend keeping them??

Indefinitely, regardless of what happens to the values.

I did pick up a few duplicates along the way, including a few hugely-discounted Old Timers and a couple of limited editions from eBay that I couldn't stand to see sell so low. Most of the extra Old Timers I've already given away. I'm hanging on to the 'special' items as future trade items.

-Bob

 

[thawk]

Trade around and obtain more. Use some of them. Buy more, sell a few as tastes change. Right now I kind of buy ones that look nice to me and seem collectable, if the price is reasonable. I'm kind of into the open stocks now that my Uncle Henry and Old Timer collection is healthy.

I enjoy the slippies more than fixed blades for playing with. Knives can be a fun show off item.

Pass them down to my sons, eventually.

 

[gradall5200]

I'll try to help you stir the pot a little here. I also came here a year and a half ago or so to get the value of a knife. I was immediatly sucked in. I had always collected knives but not to any great extent, but Im 28 years old now and when I came here I had maybe 20 or 30 random knives. But I will say this; I never got sucked into the chinees or walmart ozark trail junk. sure Ive got a few but you would of never found one of thoes in my pocket.
I was always partial to my very first old timer. something about them just intrigued me the color ,the quality blade whatever ,but same goes for uncle henry. I dont have a huge wallet but I buy what I can, and my collection is here to stay, pretty much. Sometimes I will pick up a few old timers in clam packs on the bay or at k-mart when I can find them to save for a rainy day 10 years from now. my thought on that is maybe when the demand goes up I can trade a few of these average ones off for some higher dollar schrades that I just cant afford right now. Im not one of thoes people with a closet full of schrades just waiting to capitalize on the market. More importantly my collecting of schrades has brought me here, where I can proudly say I have made some good friends, and Id like to think this keeps me out of the bar a little bit. My money now has a more important place to be- filling out my collection ,and trying to start a simple collection for my son. so maybe someday he will have some thing to do other than drugs or mischief. I couldnt be happier that I came here that one day and never left- joel

 

[ducks_and_bucks66]

My knives that I buy and trade for are for my enjoyment and to be passed down to my children. If I was going to buy something to try and make a profit off of it, I'd be buying real estate. I just feel like every purchase or trade I make is a piece of American history and as we've seen with Schrade and now Camillus, the history is slowly dying. My small collection (compared to most here) is proudly displayed in my office and has been a conversation piece on many occasions. Not sure you can put a price on how I've used them to spend time with my son. With all the distractions of life, these are another tool to help keep my son and I close.

 

[delander]

Initially I started by building a collection of the Old Timer and Uncle Henry folders and saw that my young people (children) and younger-young people (grandchildren) were interested, so I built each a collection(a bit smaller than mine though!) .
Over time I managed to put together a fairly respectable collection of Schrades, and then, my direction changed to D'Holders.
Over the past year and one-half or so, I've sold a lot of these (but, not the original collections - mine and my families).
Whatever Schrades I've let go have been replaced by D'Holders. I still (and likely always will) carry an 897UH. My original 897UH has been retired because the blade became so thin the nail nick was no longer accessible.

 

[El Lobo]

Del,

If you need a user 897 UH, just drop me an email...I'm sure we can work that out for a couple of those old run down D'holders...

Billy

 

[kevins73cigars]

Tim,
Good topic, you've got me interested enough to post. I've gone through a few stages with the Schrade-aholism over the past two years. I think alot of guys have.

It started when I went to the hardware store to pick up a replacement LB7 in March of 2005. When I heard the bad news, I thought I would "stock up" and get a few LB7s while they were still around (phase 1). Then the fever gripped me and the "buy and hold - to cash in!" idea took hold (phase 2). I started collecting all the patterns (and multiple mint examples) that I could get my feverish little hands on.

I sold the bulk of my collection in Nov./Dec. of 2006. I kept a very small/very cool collection of my favorite Schrade knives. (phase 3)

Now, I'm buying one or two, tradeing, collecting other makers, etc... I recently traded a mint Schrade 206 barlow for a mint Case 6308 5 dot red bone whittler.

I'm probably still in the early stages of Schrade-aholism.

In regard to your topic, I don't think there will be a big "boom" or a run up in Schrade prices. I think as time goes by, the prices for mint, boxed Schrade knives will rise/hold for the most part and continue to slowly rise in general. I think carbon steel will do better than stainless - some patterns will do better than others. i.e. 194OTs and 77OTs will gain value faster than 885UHs and 285UHs.

Regardless, the good news is, you have a hobby that costs very little in the long run. You can sell them later on and not loose your shirt - if you're real lucky, you may even make enough to buy your favoritr pocket knife.

My advice to a fellow Schrade-aholic is as follows: Have fun, learn as much as you can, make some friends, and don't worry about getting rich collecting Schrade pocket knives.

All the Best,
Kevin

 

[Timstools]

Kevin
I couldnt have said it better than you!!! as follows:

Have fun, learn as much as you can, make some friends, and don't worry about getting rich collecting Schrade pocket knives.

It would be nice to think that I could eventually pass them on to my kids after I am gone and that they would value them as much as I do but I think Im being niave so Ive decided that the best person to sell them before I go is me.

I can just imagine them being placed on a silver tray and all being taken down to the nearest second hand store and getting $50 to $100 dollars for all of them. That is unless they become proficient on ebay and have all the info??

Nope Ive already decided it would be wise if I did it but as Im 38 Im hoping I have a little while to go.

Maybe Im wrong about this maybe they would love them all as I surely would have Loved a few of my Grandfathers knives when he passed away a couple of years ago. Ill keep just a handfull for them for keepsakes. Perhaps they can have the cash from the sales of the others??

I cant hold on to them forever!!!

Larry!! What are your plans !!
Anyone??