Joaquin - category 4 may become cat 5

Stacy E. Apelt - Bladesmith

Stacy E. Apelt - Bladesmith

ilmarinen - MODERATOR
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The storm track is shifting a little farther east....thankfully. I talked with my NWS buddies in Wakefield and they think it will miss the mid east coast and hit around NY/Mass. That is the good news.
That still makes it pass by Norfolk and Va.Beach just about 100 miles east of us. It will create a massive Nor-Easter and we will likely get bigtime flooding and rain. It has rained and poured for a week solid already, and the ground is saturated. We have had coastal flooding twice a day for a full week, too. Any wind with Joaquin will drop trees like it did in Isabel. Low areas will likely be underwater. Last time we had a storm like this I had no power for a week. Luckily I have generators and use gas for cooking and hot water....not everyone does, though.

We should have a good idea of the track by Saturday morning. Monday morning is when we will be most affected.

For you New England chaps, get ready. This will be hitting you the next day.
 
Yes, the forecast is tracking farther east now. Let's all hope it keeps that track.
 
The Out Islands of the Bahamas are getting bitch slapped because the forward motion of the storm has slowed to a crawl again. There must be some weird steering currents working on it because it has stalled twice and when it gets moving again it will have made like a 120 degree turn to starboard.
 
Ooooo! The Bahamas are getting their asses handed to them on a platter. I have weathered a couple 80+mph storms here in Cocoa Beach. A relatively minor blow by hurricane standards but quite impressive. I can't imagine what 150 mph would be like. It looks like the storm is going to stay off shore, which is a good thing but rain is going to be the issue. Hopefully not as bad as predicted. Good luck to all in the path of the storm.

On the flip side, one positive note on the storm is the surfing conditions are great.
 
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Yes, there is no directional wind to steer the storm right now. It is just wobbling like a top. Sometimes motionless, occasionally at a whopping 5-6mph movement, currently at 2-3mph. I feel really bad for the folks in the Bahamas. Sustained 135+mph winds and 150mph gusts for a couple days has to wreck havoc.

Click here and put your cursor over the left side words "Satellite Image Loop". http://www.weather.gov/akq/Joaquin#rain
You will see that the storm is just gyrating.
Now, run down the left legend and change the map to the various things. When you get down to the "5 Day Total" look at the Mid-Atlantic states ... 15+ inches of rain in the next five days for SC and NC on top of coastal flooding due to the storm and seasonal high tides. While the rain will vary in degree as the storm moves up the coast, the flooding will be the same.

Latest discussion has the steering winds from the mainland strengthening and the mid Atlantic winds weakening. This will keep the storm in the Atlantic and move it parallel to the coast one to two hundred miles out. Thus is very good for the East coast as far as wind and direct storm damage, but bad for rain and flooding. It will also keep the storm strong all the way to the Maritime Provinces. It will likely still be a hurricane as it gets to Canada.

Currently it is pouring cats and dogs, maybe an inch an hour, ... and this has nothing to do with Joaquin. Our town and area is full of big old oak trees. Lovely, but shallow rooted. Right now the roots are in soft earth and mud. Add to that the streets have made the roots grow only on one side of the tree. Even a 30-40mph gust from the street side direction will topple one. Sadly, that means it almost always falls toward the house.

One last thought to make this all show how bizarre weather is - If this system that has been over the East Cast for a week plus and the hurricane were on the west coast, it would be a large enough system to extinguish almost all of the current fires from California to Canada.
 
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It has missed the Catskill Mtns ! I think many in the media and others wanted a serious storm as we hadn't had one this year !
 
glassguy said:
Ooooo! The Bahamas are getting their asses handed to them on a platter. I have weathered a couple 80+mph storms here in Cocoa Beach. A relatively minor blow by hurricane standards but quite impressive. I can't imagine what 150 mph would be like. It looks like the storm is going to stay off shore, which is a good thing but rain is going to be the issue. Hopefully not as bad as predicted. Good luck to all in the path of the storm.

On the flip side, one positive note on the storm is the surfing conditions are great.
Click to expand...

When I was a kid we would jump the barrier then run to the end of the pier. Then jump off with our surfboards.
That way you could easily get past the breakers and wait for a good wave.
Lots of good memories from Cocoa Beach.
 
Looking pretty safe now. Track is turning well out to sea.

The coastal storm we have been having for nearly a week has slowly moved inland and we are now down to just light showers today and tomorrow. It even looks like we might see the sun on Tuesday. All we will get from Joaquin will be some coastal winds and maybe a little tidal flooding on Monday/Tuesday. After more than a week of 5-6' above normal high tides as well as inland storm flooding, that is no big deal.
 
Ain't no thing but a chicken wing.

I was stacking firewood during the storm... the tarps were fun.:rolleyes:
 
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