Market overload?

T

Tom Carey

Joined
Oct 10, 1998
Messages
811
I have seen a few folks mention that they feel there is an overload of new designs on the factory knife market. I feel there are to many hadmade knife designs and makers floating around as well. So here are the questions.

1 Do you feel the knife market is overloaded?

2 If the answer is yes how do you feel the market in general will be effected?

I think with the state of the economy etc.. that we will see a few company's going out of business and at the very least I think there will be fewer full time makers around in the next few years.

We may also see fewer dealers as well. At present it seems many folks who were selling other items at Gun shows for example have switched to selling knives. Now in my view we also have too many dealers. Especially in the POS knife selling biz.


Regards,


Tom Carey
 
I haven't been seriously involved long enough with knives to be able to give you a strong opinion on question #1. Still, I think it is a very interesting question.

I know that I feel I have a better understanding of the market since I joined BF in February. I don't think the magazines offer a lot of help in that area, since their goal is to put out as much advertising as possible, and to grow the market.

But, I feel that sometimes the forums are pretty insular. I don't think that the typical knife buyer is a typical forumite. Somebody has to be buying all these knives. It is my great hope that it is people who are getting turned on to knives, or who are just really appreciating some of the great new knife designs out there.

Personally, though my own preference is for larger tactical folders, I believe that the increasing emphasis on smaller knives in design is one of the best hopes for a growing and sustainable market for manufactured knives. I think you're right that a few companies will bite the bullet and sink out of existance. This has happened to at least 2 or 3 companies in the last few months.

I think that knives like the SOG Sculptura, the Kershaw Chive, several of the Spydercos, the Camillus EDC, and the Outdoor Edge Paragee are knives that people who aren't knife knuts will be buying, largely because of their "cool" aspects. I really like the looks of the new little Al Mar, the acronym of which won't rise to the surface right now -- SL something, I think -- is another knife that doesn't suggest weapon in any way, that non-knife people may buy.

I think, in terms of the continuing ability to carry knives, etc., that we all need to be missionary-like in trying to turn others on to the practicality of carrying a knife. I hope that we have the most success with females in that area. If it becomes truly common for women to carry a knife of some sort, I think that those who support the Draconian laws may have a tougher go of it. I have been remiss in this area, but I think that gifts of some of these smaller, "cool" knives to people who don't carry is probably one of the best tactics to make as many of them us, as possible.
 
Hey Tom....

I agree with you to some degree..
It's a dog eat dog market....

I don't think people will ever stop buying knives or in my case aftermarket outfitting..It's just like the hunting market or any other market where there is a high targeted consumer..
People will always Buy andExpect the best..

In this case it's knives..

The makers that will float to the top are the ones that have High quality blades, nice designs and Excellent cutomer service...

I as well as many dealers here strive to give that level of quality, service and on a personal level.. I expect it when I'm the consumer,,and treat my customers the way I expect to be treated...

You can see many fine examples of this very thing, Quality,Good brands ,good prices and Excellent customer service right here in our own little ecosystem we call Bladeforums.com

The people on BF.com are the Absolute Elite of knife buyers.. They are probably the most informed group of people on the face of the planet.They see the latest and greatest before it even hits the newstands...

You see many other websites selling Garbage knives, there are Dealers here reading this right now that are selling Garbage,, but no one knows who they are and never will on bf.com because no one wants what they sell,,maybe other than people who don't know any better...

We see this Cheap offshore garbage Everywhere, truckstops,gas stations, flea markets and Especially TV...

Those two knobs on HSN are also probably reading this right now...
What these knives do is flood the market, bring the price of what people want to spend down to a few dollars...
The people who regularly buy this $hit fall off of their chairs when we tell them what a "Real" knife costs..
They don't know any better because all they see is 100 knives for a Buck.... Those two guys wouldn't know a real knife if they seen it..It's guys like this and dealers who sell crap that destroy the market...

Out of all the people you know how many would spend more than $20-$30.00 on a knife,, not many I suspect.. The only ones I know are also addicts like you and me...

So yaa the market is flooded in a way.. Lots of makers doing some wild beautiful blades to attract people with..The ones who will be in this Biz in 5-10 years will be the ones who know what they are doing.. The rest get weeded out,just like any other part of life...

**Rant Mode**

OFF

ttyle

Eric...
 
Sadly, the POS knife market dwarfs the quality knife market, always has and always will. It takes an educated consumer to appreciate paying more for a quality production knife, and more knowledge and spendable cash to appreciate custom knives. Some people don't get the custom collectible aspect of knife appreciation, even if they use their production knives a lot.

I agree with you on almost every point. Right now, there are more custom knife makers, dealers, and 'high end' custom knife manufacturers than ever before producing an ever increasing number of models. Certainly a lot of them will disappear in time, failing to make a profit. It is simple supply and demand economics really. The only constant thing is change. It's a dog it dog world out there and only the fittest survive.

This is where I am reminded one of Les Robertson's (a successful custom dealer) points about understanding the business side of custom knives. Not all of the current makers are going to be around in 5, or 10, or even 20 years. If they can't make it, and stop producing, the value of their work will stop appreciating and the market for their work will disappear on both the primary (from the maker) and secondary markets (resale by dealers and individuals).

So if you are serious about collecting knives to watch a makers career develop over time, and hope the value of the knives you purchased will appreciate, you have to pay attention to how good a businessman the knife maker is. Lots of people who have made wonderful knives are completely unknown to most of us. Some makers remain part-timers all of their lives. Some rare few manage to make knife making a career and keep it going. Some fail pretty quickly. Not because their knifemaking skills were inadequate, but because their business skills were inadequate.

I think you are right that some of the high end knife companies are going to disappear. But it has always been so. It is very sad, but not altogether surprising, that 99% of the market for all kinds of knives is what we would call the POS market. Obviously sellers of this crap do very well, or we would not be entertained by idiot comedians like Tom Odell and Shawn Leflar on the Home Shopping Network TV program. These guys probably sold more POS knives in a month than Spyderco sold in a year.

The production knife market always seems to favor supply side economics, because most people simple do not realize that a quality knife is something worth more than the additional money it will cost. So demand for the higher end of the knife market (anything more than $100) will always be less than the demand for POS knives.

Like it or not, POS knives are here to stay, and so are high end production knives, and single maker 'custom' knives. The names we call the companies, and prominant makers, and dealers will change. I would guess the most difficult market to try to make a living in would be the custom knife dealer. Lots of these business are doomed to failure.

I am not to worried about what happens to the knife market, but then, I do not make, sell, or trade knives. I do not follow trends, and I buy only what I like. There will always be plenty of those, thank goodness. It also saddens me that some of the worlds finest knife makers make very little money while dealers in the POS market like Shawn and Tom run laughing to the piggy bank.

Para
 
Let's also remember that we live in a 'Disposable' world. Disposable lighters, diapers, cameras...
I've heard:
"You paid what?!!! I got a cheap knife at the flea market. When it breaks, I'll throw it out and get another..."
 
Custom knife makers and high-end manufacturers are not living in an inelastic market -- they're not selling to people who buy a knife to cut things with and don't buy another until that one wears out. The whole concept of market saturation is inapplicable -- quite the reverse. The guy who buys a good knife for the first time doesn't drop out of the market for the next five years; he enters the market.
 
I sharpened what I would call a high end disposable knife, for a kid today. He has been carrying it for four years, taken good care of it and is proud that he has not lost it. He has also in keept a fair edge on it. I admire his kind of pride. These are entry level knives and without them much of the knife world would not exist for they keep the knife spirit alive, well and guarantee that we as a culture will survive the next generation and hopefully more. While these kinves do not mean much to us, many are the child's prize possesion and may be all many adults can afford or really need.
 
Call me crazy but I've been thinking there have not been too many new high end production pieces come out lately...

:D
 
There is a proliferation of new designs and such. Welcome to the revolution! In the 70's there was a revolution, and this is the next one. new materials, new grind ideas, new locks and such, etc.

Here's where things will go wrong: I don't think this new lock design business will be big soon. Benchmade did well with the axis lock, as it was the only alternative to liners and lockbacks. Now every company has their own lock and Walker has, I hear, a whole bunch of other patented lockign methods waiting in reserve. So, people will just buy their favorite brand instead of going for the fancy lock of the week. And you can only do so much with folders before you bore the market. There has already been a few knife companies go kaput. Blackjack has come and gone a lot. Knife companies that want to stay in this market are in a dog-eat-dog market, and you have to be tough to survive.

Here's where I think things will go well: new markets. get people hooked on GOOD kitchen cutlery! get people buying spydercos and other folders as EDCs instead of $2.99 POS knives. Get Kayakers hooked on blades, hikers hooked on blades, military and police, martial arts, etc. All of these markets could use a good tapping! I think the military markets are booming, but Police and others could use some good blades. Jerry VanCook has done a wonderful job informing cops of good blades to buy. Emerson has their PUK knfie, soemthing ALL cops should have. A good fixed blade is great. Oh, by the way, that is the boom we're in now too. People are used to carrying folders, and now they want small fixed blades. Makers of good small fixed blades should do well too.

If we really want to keep the boom going, efforts need to be made on the LEGAL front. Banning gravity knives is dumb. The ability to flick open a folder by no means makes it a bad tool. It would be nice if the law would lean a little more towards the INTENTIONS of people, instead of what they are carrying. So, support AKTI and other organizations that protect rights. Write your political reps and INFORM them about knives. In the near future I'd like to get a letter going from all of us Canadian knife nuts. I can carry a dagger, but a balisong is a no-no because law makers saw silly movies or heard of gang members carrying and using these blades in altercations. Gangs these days in Canada use guns (NOT the registered ones either! but that is another issue...) and more stabbings are from screw drivers and kitchen blades than anything else. If we can clean up our legal environment, our knife world would be much better.

I am happy to see cops in my town carrying folders in their pockets. I check every cop when I see them out of curiosity. Get people educated, and they'll be cool. Get people hooked on how great a blade can be. if I had a knife store, I thought of a great advertising idea. I'd have a bunch of those POS $2.99 blades and a big sign inviting people to carry one of these. Try it for a week, but MAKE SURE you sue it! Use it to cut threads, try it in the kitchen, etc. And if you really enjoy using it, come back and see me. If you buy a new blade, I'll buy your little blade back from you. When I started carrying a 440-A folder (I didn't knwo what that was then) I didn't know how I survived without a blade in the past! IF we can do this to others, we can get people using good kitchen cutlery, nice folders, and great blades for all tasks. That would take some of the bite out of the dog-eat-dog world.


Man, this has been my longest post in some time!
 
The t.v. knife shows that sell POS knives reach a mass audience and people are buying these POS knives in bulk. This is part of the reason for over saturation.
 
The concept of market saturation does apply in a different sense -- someday we're going to reach the point when the number of new knife knuts entering the market equals the number of old ones leaving (personally, I'm planning to leave feet first, but we all stop buying knives eventually, one way or another). I think market saturation is still a few years in the future, but it's bound to come eventually.

If I were selling knives I would take out ads in the women's magazines; there's a vast untapped market there.
 
Never! You can never have too many knives to pick from and there is always room for improvement. Besides, you need the competition to keep the prices in a fair market range!

Grandpa Troll
 
It's called free enterprise. The stronger and shrewder will survive, whether they are custom or manufactured products.
 
I was just wondering if the people who purchase those HSN knives, have a garage full of Beane Babies?
Good work is not cheap and cheap work is not good.

Jeff
 
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