Remember, Y2K lasts 12 months

[Doc Ron]

I'm not claiming gloom and doom, fact is I'm not a bit surprised by the way things went so far. Sure, our power went out but then it does that evey other day anyway which is why we have alternative power systems.

The real issue is that jokes about selling off the supplies could indicate, or help promote, a poor understanding of the real problem which is the incredible interdependency of our economic systems. (I know that wasn't the intention)

Let me explain. My father-in-law owns a company that makes thermostats for the largest heating and airconditioning company in the world. His company contracts with a company in Taiwan. This morning he learned that the company that makes the circuit boards for them is not compliant and to make matters worse the company that ships them the etching chemical is also down.

What does this mean? It means that it may be a few weeks to a month before they can produce product again. At 20K units per day that amounts to a problem. Roughly one million dollars a day for pop in law and more for their client by a factor of about 10.

Oops! Thermostats don't mean anything right? Well, if yours goes out it might. Most companies don't keep a lot of product in the pipeline or in inventory. "Just-in-Time" inventory is the rule. Some folks will get cold and some new constructions will be held up for a week to a month. The cost escalates.

GM, Ford and others all loaded up on inventory from smaller firms so they can continue to produce vehicles in the event that any of these firms could not provide their product on time. Now there will be no new orders to these smaller firms while the giants go through the inventory on hand... cash flow problems now...defaults.

There are tens of thousands of examples, any of which can effect us in serious ways. A slowing of the shipping of oil, a breakdown in coffee shipments (NOOOOO!) etc.

My point, though labored, is this. Just because we dodged a bullet, don't expect things to go smoothly. Some things can be very uncomfortable. There are some big "What if's" out there yet. We will hear about them in the coming days, weeks and months. This includes the wierdos that Jeff mentioned.

Just stay aware and if someone is selling off their supplies now... buy them. I plan to 'cause way back where we live it is nice to be able to eat even if a mudslide closes the road for a month or two like it did two years ago.

I advise caution. At Hoods Woods we are making plans for our next video and for trips and programs for this next year and doing all of the normal planning and dreaming we do every year. We are maintaining our cautious stance too.

I am paying $10.00 for full cases of MRE's if anyone wants to sell off

Ron

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[MichLee]

Ron, you are quite correct that some issuse can still rear their ugly heads and bite us later down the road because fo the supply chain, and also JIT delivery systems. But I for one, having worked specifically on Y2K, being in charge of it for my place of business, think that most of these will be more inconviences than life changing. There are few suppliers that cannot be replaced, granted not without some inconvience or expense. It does have the possiblity to do major damage to smaller companies without capital to replace and upgrade their hardware and systems, and this is where I feel the real damage will be felt. Another example of the rich shall get richer and the poorer, poorer.

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Lee

LIfe is too important to be taken seriously. Oscar Wilde

 

[wmerrin]

Like they say, it all depends on your perspective (a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours). My biggest fear was infrastructure - as long as we have power, water and sewer in the commercial/industrial areas we shouldn't go into a society-threatening crisis mode.

Sure some companies are going to go under, and that's very unfortunate for the people who work there or depend on their product. However, I believe someone else will pick up the slack fairly quickly... mankind can be very innovative when there is a buck to be made.

My problem with all of this is that we always seem to be in an either/or mode - either society will collapse or nothing will happen. Personnaly, I believe it will be somewhere inbetween. Since my lights, water, sewer and Internet connection are all working I think it will not be as bad as it could have been.

And no, my reserves are not for sale. We may have an earthquake today, tomorrow, six months from now, or never. Y2K served as a wake up call for many people who had not thought about their vulnerability and dependence on a fragile infrastructure.

As far as Microsoft is concerned, Bill Gates had to eat a lot of crow after he claimed (n the early days of Y2K fear) that it was only a mainframe problem. It was afterwards that he found out that not one of the products Microsoft made at that point was Y2K compliant.

Wally