Russia's Present?

SD, I'm a student of the Russian language and culture, and can answer some of your questions with some degree of knowledge.

There are three former-Soviet Republics that border Afghanistan: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. All are heavily populated by Muslims, but all were also major targets for "Russification" during the last 150 or so years. They are all currently poor and mixed between Russian and Islamic culture. Tajikistan has said that it will not allow military action to be taken from its' country. Uzbekistan has said it will allow the US both the use of its' airspace and land bases. Turkmenistan has not publicly announced a position, but will most likely follow the majority of CIS states, and is probably negotiating for economic assistance in return for its' help.

The main problem now is Russia itself. They have announced that they support us in principle, and that they will support our use of force. The problem is that they have also been reluctant to allow us to use their bases or airspace. This could be problematic, because Uzbekistan cannot be reached except though Russia. They are likely also playing the "you scratch my back..." game, too, but we will have to see. The Russians are pretty hard to predict. One thing for sure... they HATE muslims. They will begrudgingly accent those who are peaceful in the Islamic Republics, but in general the Russians don't get along with muslims. They have had too many experiences like their wars with Afghanistan and Chechnya to have any love for the Muslim world, and often they have only those examples as steriotypes.

They also fear war more than most countries. The USSR lost something like 20 million people in WWII, and they have feared wars ever since.

Russians also don't trust the international community. They have traditionally only trusted other Slavs, and currently are still affected by hold-over Cold War paranoia about the west. The young generations love the west, but the old mistrust us deeply. They have not been treated properly by US foreign policy (IMO), and they are, in general, at least sceptical of us.

Also of interest are this weeks' events in Chechnya. One report says that seperatists stormed several cities in large numbers (400 in one city) and tried to take them form Russian Federal forces, but were unsuccessful. The Russian Gov. has downplayed the incedent saying it was only about 20-30 seperatists in one town. Press reports said that Grozny was attacked, but the Gov. denied it. Oddly enough, though, a helicopter carrying two Russian Generals was shot down over Grozny yesterday by seperatists using SAMs. There was also a large bomb defused yesterday in a Moscow suburb. I've heard no other details.

I personally think that Russia and the US should ally themselves against terrorism, and I think it may slowly happen. If any of you want more info on Russia in current events, just ask.

PS: sorry about the long post.
 
Matt,

Thanks for the info. It is very interesting. Maybe we'll be able to forge an alliance with Russia and put down terrorism in that region together...

Alan
 
AC: I sure hope so. I also think an alliance between the US, Britain and Russia could be huge force for peace and positive change in the world, but we will have to wait and see. Right now there are too many variables to really predict what will happen, and I worry that things may also go badly for everyone, but we will all see in the next few weeks and months. Let's all hope for the best.
 
I believe that paying other countries is how this thing is going to work. Paying the bad guys to kill the worse, that is how assassinations go. You have to play dirty to get these guys, and you have to win the hearts and minds of those who house them. In such situations love really is your best weapon...literally and metaphorically.

I just dont want another tit for tat thing going on for 1000's of years like Bosnia.
 
I was just about to ask about those three countries to the north of Afganistan on the map that Dave posted, its been a while since I was in school and they were new to me. I appreciate the history/current events lesson, very interesting info and of importance to be aware of.
Once again this forum is AMAZING, you never know what you're going to find out. Thanks again!
 
Thanks for enlightening info. I keep getting that feeling that this is going to be a very long and drawn out process.
 
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