There does seem to be a quick turn-around on the newest and hottest knives as they come out. Folks will buy 2 or more, and keep the perfect examples, or try out a new knife, and find it's not the ideal. For regular production pieces, you can usually find them at a slight discount soon after release, but as folks are saying, they go fast!
I usually wait for a popular knife to saturate the market, and then wait for people to get bored with them, and then I start to search daily for a knife I'm interested in trying out. It can take up to a year, or more before the really popular knives start showing up in discounts high enough for me to get interested. If you're looking for NIB (New In Box) then the cycle is a bit quicker, but the prices don't drop nearly as fast as used. Yeah, it's all logical, and I'm sure any market is the same. This is just how I operate.
Limited Releases are a different story. They will sky-rocket in the first few months, then slowly come down. If they are popular enough, it may never come down, though. Really, it comes down to supply and demand. Some are more desirable than others. You can't always tell which ones it will be, though.
When a popular model gets discontinued, it's another story. There could be an initial rush on remaining stock, which is usually slightly discounted, and then the prices start slowly spiraling up, until folks start to forget about the knife, or find the next best and greatest knife to replace it.
I was about to go out on a wordy, nerdy analogy, comparing knife collecting, as an investment, with Stocks, Funds, IRAs, and the like, talking about Day-trading, vs. long term investments, and ROI. Stuff I know nothing about. But then I realized, that I could never be into knife collecting for the money. There's just too much risk.
My advice is Carefully Buy what you LIKE. Don't expect to make money. Just do it for the enjoyment of the hunt, or pleasure of admiring, fondling and/or using the knives.
If you happen to have something that's worth more $ later down the line, so be it. Maybe leave a decent inheritance to your children. Just try to have fun!
