State of the secondary market?

[mitchnola]

I’ve been buying/carrying knives since around 2015 but I didn’t start collecting until 2022 which shockingly coincides with finding this place. So this is when I first found and started following the secondary market. During that time in early ’23 the market was on fire. Knives were selling above retail and not just selling but flying off the exchange. Almost every and any knife listed would sell.

From what I have observed it seems the market very quickly went from hot to ice cold in the second half of’24 and has for the most part been very cold and a buyers market. What was flying off the exchange at $500 now sits at $375.

So my question is whether 2020-24 was just the covid bubble and the market is just returning back to normal or is it actually down. I’m hoping some who have been following the market a lot longer than me could shed some light on where the market stands in a long term context.

 

[scorpnsnake]

As the owner of a few businesses, I can say this. It's not the knife market, its the economy at large. In thirty years at this post, I've never seen such a sad state of affairs.

Some from the covid bubble, more from the first supply chain debacle years ago that inflated prices that never readjusted. We're still paying the piper for stimulus and PP programs.

Now inflamed by uncertainty, chaos, taxes on American business mucked up under the idiocy of "terrifs", aka taxes on US business owners. I don't think most people even bother to understand terrifs or who pays them.

Building materials are silly expensive and Mother Earth is banging away at single family dwellings. So HO insurance is through the roof. Catalytic converter thefts have auto insurance up significantly.

I'm confident what we are seeing in the exchange is just shit rolling downhill from surrounding circumstances.

 

[Mk-211]

People aren't spending right now, when the economy looks more stable, it will pick back up.

A lot is what you said, the market is adjusting back to somewhat normal.

 

[adluginb]

Yes, economy at large for sure. People don’t have money and are probably tapped out on credit card debt. I still think current admin is heading in the right direction but there is for sure going to be some hard times in the next 1-2 year. In 2 years I may change my mind about that…

I had to cough up around $10k for fence, garage door and water heater. Installed all those myself otherwise would have been close to $35k at today’s prices. My neighbor just paid $26k for a privacy fence the same size as I put in. I spent $3100 on supplies and did it myself.

People can’t afford to do that.

Fortunately for me I still have some play money around but I am very cautious and have only bought several smoking deals on the secondary.

Still waiting for a smoking deal on a Les George as I have never tried one.

 

[scorpnsnake]

Yes, economy at large for sure. People don’t have money and are probably tapped out on credit card debt. I still think current admin is heading in the right direction but there is for sure going to be some hard times in the next 1-2 year. In 2 years I may change my mind about that…

I had to cough up around $10k for fence, garage door and water heater. Installed all those myself otherwise would have been close to $35k at today’s prices. My neighbor just paid $26k for a privacy fence the same size as I put in. I spent $3100 on supplies and did it myself.

People can’t afford to do that.

Fortunately for me I still have some play money around but I am very cautious and have only bought several smoking deals on the secondary.

Still waiting for a smoking deal on a Les George as I have never tried one.

No worries about me going political. I simply hate them all and feel that nobody vying for political power has our best interests in mind these last several decades. Red and blue don't mean near what they once did, only brown remains on both sides.

My problem with the one to two year scenario is this. We're all coming off of two years of economic slow burn. Businesses and employees. Costs going up and income remaining or in most cases, decreasing. Many have been riding on savings and debt to maintain status quo, betting that it will turn around like it usually does.

Then we step in and make it significantly worse in the name of onshore manufacturing, when the infrastructure is not here for such things. So even if it's a viable plan, the timing is a death blow for so many American business owners and all that make their living working for them. Honest business owners don't have anywhere near one to two years of cash or available credit for this to turn.

Look up US Business bankruptcy announcements. Dropping like flies, every single day and those are the big boys. So imagine it's much worse for medium and small businesses.

 

[mitchnola]

As the owner of a few businesses, I can say this. It's not the knife market, its the economy at large. In thirty years at this post, I've never seen such a sad state of affairs.

Some from the covid bubble, more from the first supply chain debacle years ago that inflated prices that never readjusted. We're still paying the piper for stimulus and PP programs.

Now inflamed by uncertainty, chaos, taxes on American business mucked up under the idiocy of "terrifs", aka taxes on US business owners. I don't think most people even bother to understand terrifs or who pays them.

Building materials are silly expensive and Mother Earth is banging away at single family dwellings. So HO insurance is through the roof. Catalytic converter thefts have auto insurance up significantly.

I'm confident what we are seeing in the exchange is just shit rolling downhill from surrounding circumstances.

I get the economy is struggling. And the knife market will always somewhat parallel the economy but how much of the last 4-5 years was an exaggerated bubble vs the market as it is now is closer to the norm in the long term.

Another example would be the interest rates. There is data to show that 2-3% interest isn’t the norm at all but rather closer to an all time low. So while the overall housing/construction market is down because people now think 6% is outrageous when in reality it’s closer to the norm than 2-3% which we may never see again or at least for a long time.

I’m in construction and we very much had a covid bubble and it fell off in ‘24 and is still slower than what the norm would be prior to the bubble. Everyone is still waiting on the interest rates to come down when in reality they just need to accept them as the new norm. I could certainly see everyone wishing they had borrowed at 6% in a few years.

 

[XJ-linux]

Prices are up on necessities, but wages are not for most folks. Second hand knives are an easy expense to cut for most.

 

[mitchnola]

Yes, economy at large for sure. People don’t have money and are probably tapped out on credit card debt. I still think current admin is heading in the right direction but there is for sure going to be some hard times in the next 1-2 year. In 2 years I may change my mind about that…

I had to cough up around $10k for fence, garage door and water heater. Installed all those myself otherwise would have been close to $35k at today’s prices. My neighbor just paid $26k for a privacy fence the same size as I put in. I spent $3100 on supplies and did it myself.

People can’t afford to do that.

Fortunately for me I still have some play money around but I am very cautious and have only bought several smoking deals on the secondary.

Still waiting for a smoking deal on a Les George as I have never tried one.

Well first of all, shame on you for not trying a LG yet! You may just have to bite the buullet to get one cause they’re so exceptional that they’re an outlier in this current market. Primarily because once you get that first one you will have to have another.

And the question isn’t so much as to why the knife market is down but rather is it actually down or just returning to normal. Should we ever expect it to be what it was during the covid bubble?

 

[mitchnola]

Just to clarify fellas, the question isn’t why the market is down but whether it’s at a actually low or just returning to normal from the covid bubble. Is this what we should expect over the long term.

 

[Lorien]

I feel like the cutlery market has been in a bubble since shortly after the sub prime crash and financial crisis of '08

 

[mitchnola]

I feel like the cutlery market has been in a bubble since shortly after the sub prime crash and financial crisis of '08

Interesting, that’s what I’ve been wondering from a long term perspective.

 

[Quiet]

I get the economy is struggling. And the knife market will always somewhat parallel the economy but how much of the last 4-5 years was an exaggerated bubble vs the market as it is now is closer to the norm in the long term.

Another example would be the interest rates. There is data to show that 2-3% interest isn’t the norm at all but rather closer to an all time low. So while the overall housing/construction market is down because people now think 6% is outrageous when in reality it’s closer to the norm than 2-3% which we may never see again or at least for a long time.

I’m in construction and we very much had a covid bubble and it fell off in ‘24 and is still slower than what the norm would be prior to the bubble. Everyone is still waiting on the interest rates to come down when in reality they just need to accept them as the new norm. I could certainly see everyone wishing they had borrowed at 6% in a few years.

I will say that one element of the C19 situation is that it lasted for a couple of years with many areas of the country either shut down, or severely diminished, and folks who had money to burn since it wasn't being spent on going out to eat/drink, gas and lunch money spent going to an office every day, taking vacations, etc. were spending it on knives here. I remember for a couple years, knives would get snapped up quickly at almost new prices, and of course, some brands commanded more. So, in my observance, the bubble was that people had discretionary funds that weren't being spent elsewhere, and so spent it on their hobbies. I saw this same pattern on forums/online marketplaces for other hobbies I follow as well.

 

[Steely_Gunz]

I will say that one element of the C19 situation is that it lasted for a couple of years with many areas of the country either shut down, or severely diminished, and folks who had money to burn since it wasn't being spent on going out to eat/drink, gas and lunch money spent going to an office every day, taking vacations, etc. were spending it on knives here. I remember for a couple years, knives would get snapped up quickly at almost new prices, and of course, some brands commanded more. So, in my observance, the bubble was that people had discretionary funds that weren't being spent elsewhere, and so spent it on their hobbies. I saw this same pattern on forums/online marketplaces for other hobbies I follow as well.

I know that when ammo was hard to find/expensive during the couple of Covid years, I switched from purchasing guns to just plunking down money on knives. Instead of a Glock, I bought a nice Microtech, etc.

I think the hobby market as a whole is down. I also think that folks are maybe hanging onto what they have as it's more expensive to replace them right now.

 

[LimpCroissant]

I was big into the secondary market through Covid until now, and very big into it years before for about a decade. What was talked about during the big knife boom (around these type of parts and on knife podcasts and the like) was that during Covid a huge percentage of the citizens suddenly weren't working, they were sent home. This gave those people a lot more time to themselves, and since we were on a lockdown and couldn't do much outside (except nature, which is the best), people started surfing the net a lot more than usual (an all-time high?). These people were bored and looking for a new hobby, something interesting to occupy their minds. They landed on knives through social media. Then... Everyone got stimulus checks... Now you had a whole crap ton of new people in the knife hobby who were chronically online, and they all had a nice pocket full of cash. I think that was probably the all-time high on the secondary market that we'll ever see in our lifetimes. Now we've equalized back to a normal market, however we also have a lot of uncertainty in geopolitics and other things that are contributing to people holding onto their money a bit more than normal.

And... A random knife picture, cuz why not.

 

[fieryimp]

I think it's more than simply economic. I think the younger generations value new technologies, materials, and techniques more than craftsmanship. They might buy the hype over a new steel or a new lock type, but collecting many similar but slightly different versions for the sake of having a large collection belongs to the older folks.

 

[SharpBits]

Let’s not overlook the fact that a certain country is dumping tons of new knives on the market at unreasonable/impossible low prices. The young people are buying new for less than the cost of used. It’s a sure fire way of dominating a market.

 

[Huntsman Knife Co. LLC.]

Let’s not overlook the fact that a certain country is dumping tons of new knives on the market at unreasonable/impossible low prices. The young people are buying new for less than the cost of used. It’s a sure fire way of dominating a market.

THIS. This certain country has taken over the knife game by ripping off designs from US makers and flooding the market with goods made by slave labor. "NOT POLITICAL" but I think its important to remember that these young people vote with their dollars and it will have a huge impact on the knife market long term. The next generation values what totalitarianism can provide (cheap products) vs. quality but more expensive goods that are a product of democracy, workers rights, and fair wages.... I go above and beyond to source every component of my knives from here, use USA made equipment, belts, you name it. My knives support the local and US economy. I don't think the young customers care....

Same thing has happened to home gym equipment. Everything is made overseas and US companies like Rogue Fitness are struggling to keep up.

 

[DMG]

As Quiet said, people were staying home and spending less while the government was passing out "free" money. That definitely created a bubble. My wife works in e-commerce and I own some e-commerce stocks. Both were booming during covid and are a little soft now.

On the other hand, I own an auto repair shop. People weren't driving during covid so cars didn't need nearly as much work. A few local shops didn't make it. I run a fairly lean operation and made it through fine. Now there are less shops so my shop and the other shops that survived are having record months. The same thing happened with restaurants in my area.

This confirms what i have observed, that people are spending more on necessities and less on toys right now.


I have a few friends in IT. They are having a hard time finding jobs right now too. They all bought knives.


Edit: I have been looking at the larger OTFs like the Combat Todoon. They seem to be strong on the secondary market. There may be a glut of the more common Benchmade, Spyderco, etc being sold by people that bought during covid.

 

[WedgeAntilles]

THIS. This certain country has taken over the knife game by ripping off designs from US makers and flooding the market with goods made by slave labor. "NOT POLITICAL" but I think its important to remember that these young people vote with their dollars and it will have a huge impact on the knife market long term. The next generation values what totalitarianism can provide (cheap products) vs. quality but more expensive goods that are a product of democracy, workers rights, and fair wages.... I go above and beyond to source every component of my knives from here, use USA made equipment, belts, you name it. My knives support the local and US economy. I don't think the young customers care....

Same thing has happened to home gym equipment. Everything is made overseas and US companies like Rogue Fitness are struggling to keep up.

Depends on what you mean by young. I'm a millennial and buy U.S. made when I can. I would posit that many from my generation are socially conscious and think similarly. If we're discussing Gen Z, don't trust only what's on the TikToks. That's a vocal, but likely minority perspective.

 

[jbmonkey]

even the primary market seems much slower moving. i see runs sit longer than they would have during the raining free cash from the gobermint days.....