Supply and demand

Buffalohump

Buffalohump

Joined
Sep 7, 2006
Messages
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Is it just me or are other collectors/enthusiasts finding it increasingly difficult to obtain knives by certain makers?

I have encountered several instances in the last year, where I stumble onto a particular maker, and before I know it they are no longer taking orders as the demand for their work is so great.

In most instances, through luck and sheer determination, I have managed to get an order in, but I am now facing a wait of over a year for the knife.

Has the demand for custom knives increased substantially in the last decade? What is the cause of this? Are forums to 'blame'?

I would be interested to know what others think about this phenomenon.
 
Yes, demand has increased substantially in the past decade and this is a "Good Thing" in my opinion. And I would say perhaps forums are to "thank" more than to "blame".

If you are just having to wait a year or better for your favorite makers, IMO you are faring better than many collectors. ;):)
 
Well, that's if they are taking orders AT ALL, and now many of them are not...

I'm not even talking about well-established makers, they are relative new-comers to the scene.

Word just seems to spread like proverbial wildfire...

I guess work is still available - from dealers - but I just prefer ordering direct from the makers themselves. And unfortunately that is increasingly becoming a thing of the past.
 
Could this be the reason some makers are going to mid-techs?
 
Thw question seems somewhat ill-defined (or else I just need some stronger coffee ;)). It has always been difficult to obtain knives from "certain makers" and always will be. That is a constant in the custom knife field - not an indicator of recent and significant change. Though it is beyond dispute that word of a hot new maker spreads much faster today than in the pre-internet days when dinosaurs still walked the earth.

Furthermore, we clearly have different perceptions of what is a long waiting period. I consider anything under a year "fast" and anything under 6 months "very fast". The majority of knives I have on order reside on lists over a year, many WAY over.

Roger
 
I am disappointed in the fact that there are a couple of makers, whose work I'm interested in, that aren't taking orders. One in particular, but that is just the way things go. If you are not one that orders exclusively from makers, you can possibly get a knife from a maker that you are interested in from a dealer.

Demand has increased for the better knife makers. The forums definitely have something to do with that amongst the makers that are popular on the particular forums.
 
Have to agree with Roger on this one.

There are about 25-30 makers that 70% of the market is chasing right now.

The Chicago Show was a perfect example of that. 29 dealers with tables and another 5 walking the room. I had several makers tell me they felt that dealers were responsible of 90% of the money spent in the room. That number is probably high. But it illustrates the point.

The other thing is that 95% of knife makers are part time. Of that at least 70% are part-part time (30 knives or less a year).

Consequently, especially if they become a forum favorite, they get booked for years pretty quickly.

Who were you looking at specifically?

WWG
 
For arguements sake, lets just say that the 50 most collectible current makers each build 60 knives a year. I think I am way high, but you are looking at a total annual custom knife production of 3,000 for the planet. That is a tiny drop in the bucket.

If you want to get more selective, the top 20 makers may each build 40 knives. You get the idea. Nobody said this collecting thing is easy.
 
These are some examples of guys who have had to quit taking orders:

Rick Hinderer, Brian Fellhoelter, Graham Brothers, Jones Brothers, Shane Sibert... there are others who's names escape me now. (I should add that in the case of the Graham boys, its a temporary situation).

Of course, Ernie Emerson is another famous example.

WoodWorkGhost said:
Have to agree with Roger on this one.

There are about 25-30 makers that 70% of the market is chasing right now.

The Chicago Show was a perfect example of that. 29 dealers with tables and another 5 walking the room. I had several makers tell me they felt that dealers were responsible of 90% of the money spent in the room. That number is probably high. But it illustrates the point.

The other thing is that 95% of knife makers are part time. Of that at least 70% are part-part time (30 knives or less a year).

Consequently, especially if they become a forum favorite, they get booked for years pretty quickly.

Who were you looking at specifically?

WWG
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Well, you may be right there... patience has never been my strong point :D

RogerP said:
Thw question seems somewhat ill-defined (or else I just need some stronger coffee ;)). It has always been difficult to obtain knives from "certain makers" and always will be. That is a constant in the custom knife field - not an indicator of recent and significant change. Though it is beyond dispute that word of a hot new maker spreads much faster today than in the pre-internet days when dinosaurs still walked the earth.

Furthermore, we clearly have different perceptions of what is a long waiting period. I consider anything under a year "fast" and anything under 6 months "very fast". The majority of knives I have on order reside on lists over a year, many WAY over.

Roger
Click to expand...
 
WoodWorkGhost said:
The Chicago Show was a perfect example of that. 29 dealers with tables and another 5 walking the room. I had several makers tell me they felt that dealers were responsible of 90% of the money spent in the room. That number is probably high. But it illustrates the point.
Click to expand...
The flip side of this is the amount of money that dealers spent on makers work. The buyers aren't all collectors, and many sellers had willing sales, if wished.

Coop
 
Unless you really want a completely custom piece, the secondary market may be the way to go. I've found some makers pieces in much faster time than waiting for an order.
 
Buffalohump said:
Has the demand for custom knives increased substantially in the last decade?
Click to expand...

I would say the demand for a high quality knife at a good price is always going to be substantial. You mentioned Shane Sibert as someone who stopped taking orders so I'll focus my response with that point around him. I love Shane's knives and own several pieces. All of the Siberts I've gotten so far were from dealers or individuals on forums so I didn't have any wait time, just the good fortune to be able to snag them in the right place at the right time. However, if Shane were taking orders I'd gladly place one and take a wait time of 1-2 years because I know I'm getting a hell of a lot of knife for the money. I'm glad that Shane is busy and has so many folks out there eager to support his knives. I don't really feel frustrated that the market has made things the way they are in the case of Sibert knives. I feel lucky that I got the knives I did and really look forward to seeing what he makes in the future.

If it's a knife you know you really want then I think a year is quite reasonable if you consider the demand that led to 1 year wait time is likely to only make it greater as time goes on. I know that a year doesn't exactly feel like you're getting in on the ground floor, but in hindsight it can be.
 
You wanna talk Sibert?

I had a chance just recently to snag a mint Pocket Rocket (that's right) at a ridiculously good price and I had to pass it up.... I just didn't have the readies when it became available. When the good stuff pops up on the secondary market, it goes in minutes.... ya gotta have a slush fund just for those 'must have' opportunities. If only I had the discipline!
 
Even though some have stop taking orders many of them still bring pieces to the major shows.
Don Hanson is a good example, as you can't order one from him but you can sure pick up a real dandy at a show. :thumbup:;)
 
RogerP said:
Furthermore, we clearly have different perceptions of what is a long waiting period. I consider anything under a year "fast" and anything under 6 months "very fast". The majority of knives I have on order reside on lists over a year, many WAY over.

Roger
Click to expand...

No Kidding, a year isn't even long enough to wonder how good it's going to look in your collection once you get it. ;)

I have waited for 4 1/2 years a knife only to have it stolen 12 hours after receiving it. :eek:

I place the order then forget about it; then when you get the call from the maker it's like Xmas Time. :thumbup::):):)
 
ptgdvc said:
You get the idea. Nobody said this collecting thing is easy.
Click to expand...

Peter is right, nobody said it would be easy.

This thread reminds me of wild turkey hunting. Don't let anyone tell you it is easy. There are three things that make you successful at it; patience, patience and more patience.

If you are unsuccessful one day, you go home with a story and try something completely different the next day.

Patience helps those 3 to 7 year waits certain makers require. So does an occasional shot of Wild Turkey. :D

- Joe
 
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