Ok Jerry, here we go. All the makers that have been mentioned on this thread qualify for your original question.
There is no such thing as a great unknown. If they are great, dealers such as myself know about them, long before the public at large does. Why? Because guys like me live, eat, breath, sleep and think about custom knives. While most of you have "real" jobs.
There seems to be this notion, that there are great makers out there who knives will be worth 10 times what you paid for them in a few years. There are no such makers. Now if your going to talk 20-30% that is a different story.
A name that should be mentioned but was not, Al Polkowski. There is a huge demand, but little product. Consequently, you can make 20% quickly.
Makers such as Dozier, Nealy, Martin and Fowler make knives at such a rapid pace, they can keep up with the demand. Knives from these individuals will probably not rise much above what they sell for today. Of course there are exceptions. First, if the knife is limited, Bud Nealy is making the LDC F1 for us, it is limited to 50 knives. Rarity causes prices to go up. Randy Martin, personally, I feel his knives are better made and will preform as well if not better than Phil Hartsfield's knives. If you ever have the chance look at the two side by side. Those of you who have done this know what I am talking about. Randy's knives are as good and are half price.
The laws of knife collecting!
1) The maker has to be percieved to be one of the best, wether they are or not is inconsequential. Unfortunately, there are several makers out there that just cannot live up to the hype.
2) The maker has to be percieved to provide value for the dollar. No one wants to pay $400 for a $200 knife. However, people love to pay $200 for a $400 knife.
3) The maker must attend shows. If people cant put their hands on the makers work, they cant make up their mind if Rule #1 is in effect.
4) The maker must advertise. The maker has to get the word out about their knives.
5) The maker must have a catalog (especially if they are a Guild Member...youd be amazed at the makers who violate that Guild Rule!).
They should have photos of thier standard knives and some current work. Now I know from experience that catalogs are very expensive. So expect to pay $5.00 for a good one. If you cant pay $5.00, you cant afford the knives this maker offers. Most, will refund the $5.00 upon making a purchase.
6) They need new designs every year. If all the maker produces is the same old knives, new collectors will not pick up on your favorite maker.
7) They need to make it your way! If this is a truly custom knife (HINT HINT), the maker will have no problem incorporating your ideas(unless of course they are just not possible with the equipment they have or they dont posses the skill, i.e. engraving or scrimshaw).
8)The maker needs to have a following in the aftermarket. Want to know who is hot, visit the dealers tables at a show. Makers have a great deal of knowledge on their knives and possibly others. However, they generally do not have a command of the custom knife market that a dealer has. A maker sells his/her knives, I sell over 200 different makers knives. This aftermarket demand is important because this market will determine wether or not there is demand for the knife you are thinking about purchasing.
9) Dont buy from Makers with attitudes. If they are too lazy to stand up and greet you, brush off your questions, look bored while talking to you (Hell if they cant get excited about your knives why should you) and are just basically viewing you as a wallet with legs. Leave this maker alone, if you dont have a good feel about him, most of your fellow collectors wont either.
10) This is the most important rule.. BUY WHAT YOU LIKE! You may have it for awhile. Always try to buy the best knife you can afford. Learn as much as you can about knives, ask lots of questions (without being a pain in the ass). Also, understand that most of the knife magazines are (because of their publishing deadlines) 6 months behind what is really going on in custom knives. Lastly, learn the difference between a trend and a fad!
For most knife makers it takes 10 years of hard work to become a "overnight sensation".
Treat them with the respect they deserve and in turn they will respect you and your wishes.
Hope this helps.
Les