Very interesting question. I think the best designs will survive and all the mall-ninja crap will be swept away with the passage of time. The best 'traditionals' of our time will continue to be produced as well as the truly good modern designs, after all Laguioles and Opinels are still going strong as are trappers and three blade stockmans, Spanish navajas as well. Don't forget there are still friction folders, whose designs haven't changed significantly in hundreds of years, still being produced today. Styles like the CRKT M-16 and Benchmade 710 may be candidates for traditionals of the future but only the long term usefulness and the viability of the companies that produce them will decide for sure. Hope this thread takes off I would love to hear more opinions on this matter.
I think thats very well put.:thumbup:
One thing to think about, is the economy. If times get really hard, not many people will spend a lot of money on a knife. The 'fad' knives will go under and the companies that make it will be some of the old ones that people recognize the brand as being good. With a family to feed or a car to repair and keep running, or even needing to go look for a new job, the knife of the month thing will go south in a hurry. And that's just among knife knuts. But even good times couldn't save Schrade or Camillus. Look how many good companies went under in the great depression.
We Americans have been spoiled compared to the standards of the rest of the world, or even just Europe. Opinel and Laguioles and Victorinox have been around a century or more. But then Europeans in general are more conservitive in personel spending than we are. I don't think you see many people the other side of the big water buying a new knife of the month like over here. From what I see, a great bulk of the knife sales are repeat buyers, who own several if not more, knives. They are buying whatever the latest knife magazine is saying is the new hot lick knife from some movie. This is not the majority of the public, but in fact an extreme small fraction of the populace at large. Its a creation of an artifically created market, and the spending of a very small percent of the public in a repeat buying cycle.
In the long run, I think the classic pocket knives will be around, like sak's and some of the traditional patterns. The really old ones that most people never heard of, will fade away. I think even then, the sales of traditional knives will creep down a bit. Some of the more simple one hand folders will be around, like the more affordable Spyderco's and such. A lot depends on how society goes. If we get more in line with the PC standards of Europe, one hand locking blade knives may go the way of the dinasour.
I think there will always be a part of the public who are not knife knuts, who don't really care about them, but know they need one. They will keep buying the standard pocket knives like Buck companions, basic sak's like tinkers and recruits, or a economical Opinel, just because they may actually realize they need a knife now and then, but don't want to spend a lot on it. I know people like this, and they really do not want to bother with a knife for the most part. They've never heard of, or know who, or even care who, A. G. Russell is, nor know who Benchmade is. But they know Buck knives are good knives, so they go down to Dick's or Bass Pro shop and buy a small pocket size Buck or Victorinox. Everybody knows who MacGyver is. It will come down to brand recognition in the end, with a great deal of depending on how the economy is going.
I think the classics of the future will be what has already been around for a while. Remember those Case display cases that had 50 different knives in them? Most of those patterns are not made anymore, and probably never will be again, unless by somebody like Tony or Reese for an afficinado of the old ones. I think the future is going to be a little harsher climate for business, and things are going to have to be a little streamlined.
