Understanding market demand

NDallyn

NDallyn

Joined
Jun 22, 2006
Messages
814
What are the main factors influencing demand in the knife market? How does a maker create and/or capitalize on demand for their product? How does a customer "read the market" so to speak, when making an investment based purchase (what indicators are important to look at)?

I had asked these questions on another forum, only to have that thread turn into an argument between individual members. I'd like to avoid that here and get some actual opinions and answers.

From what I have seen in my limited experience, demand in the higher-end of the market is mostly artificial. By this I mean that demand is created by promotion of individual makers by the collectors who support them, and try to create demand for the work already in their collections, especially work from ABS smiths. On the other end, demand in the lower-end customs and the semi-custom side (folders and stock removal market in particular), seems to be influenced by the "newest and coolest". Think folder mechanisms, the newest "super steels", designs that sometimes border on "fantasy" pieces, the rise of the tactical folder market (strider, Hinderer, Lambert, Lightfoot, etc.).

Am I totally off base, what are your thoughts?

Nathan
 
Hi Nathan,

What you are asking for is more that merely a few posts. The market is very complex and few people understand even the sector they love to collect.

Which is why you get people arguing over who is better than who. It turns into a "this is my favorite maker".

Then you want to bring in "investing" that is a completely different thread.

I think if you use the search function you can find what you are looking or has already been discussed at length.

Good Luck with the thread.

WWG
 
NDallyn said:
How does a maker create and/or capitalize on demand for their product?

I think many times we make things more complicated than they are. To create demand a knife maker probably just needs to provide a fine product which collectors want to buy and have integrity and be well liked by his customer and promote himself and his industry just as any successful businessman or artist does in making and selling a product or performing a service.

You seem to be working hard to accomplish the above, however it doesn't happen overnight as you know.

From what I have seen in my limited experience, demand in the higher-end of the market is mostly artificial. By this I mean that demand is created by promotion of individual makers by the collectors who support them, and try to create demand for the work already in their collections, especially work from ABS smiths.

What's artificial about buying great knives that you like from makers that you like and who care about growing the industry. Yes a by-product of the process is the knives in your collection may be in demand and may rise in value.

Yes, I prefer that rather than just buying any knife that strikes me as pretty from any John Doe maker.

I don't believe collecting in this manner is any more prevalent to ABS collectors than to higher-end stock removal or folder collectors. IMO you see it even more in higher-end stock removal knives where dealers and collectors seem to have an agenda.
Click to expand...

*****************
 
Kevin and WWG,

I understand the local market here fairly well (that being users), what I don't really understand is the collector market. It has become fairly clear to me that the collector's market is indispensible to the success of the individual maker. I also understand that there are many makers who make a great product, but never advance to the next level because they lack knowledge of the business side of the trade.

Clearly, market analysis is a complicated task. I don't need to know everything, I just want to learn enough to be capable of finding my place within the marketplace (what style, method, and price range to focus on).

Maybe I'm just overthinking this, but that seems to be a bit of a habit for me.

Have a good one,
Nathan
 
Promotion is how demand is created. Whether that promotion is done by makers, dealers, or collectors, the only way that a maker is going become one that is in demand is through the promotion of his knives. I don't see anything artificial about it. Makers that learn to promote themselves, and to also have others that are doing it for them, are very likely to see a rise in orders. After that it is up to them to be the kind of business person that can take advantage of the increased popularity.
 
Keith Montgomery said:
Promotion is how demand is created. Whether that promotion is done by makers, dealers, or collectors, the only way that a maker is going become one that is in demand is through the promotion of his knives. I don't see anything artificial about it. Makers that learn to promote themselves, and to also have others that are doing it for them, are very likely to see a rise in orders. After that it is up to them to be the kind of business person that can take advantage of the increased popularity.
Click to expand...
Good point, sir. A perfect example is Jerry Fisk. Ridiculous natural skills, years of experience and an incredible eye for what looks "right" are the foundation for his success. But he is the master at promoting his knives.
But you don't have to just look at guys like Jerry who are at the top of the food chain. Think about the success that some makers/companies have had with knives that are pretty pedestrian and yet command high prices. While some may not always approve of Mick Strider's methods of promotion, there is no arguing with success.
I was asking about advertising a while back and Don Hanson commented that if you run a display ad in Blade for a year, you will be a "famous" knifemaker, relatively speaking. The question will be WHAT you will be famous for? Will it be for making quality knives at a fair price or making amazing collectible/art knives? Or could it be that you will famous.....or infamous for shoddy workmanship or bad business practices? The knife game is a funny business and it certainly doesn't show any signs of getting simpler anytime soon.
 
NDallyn said:
Kevin and WWG,

I understand the local market here fairly well (that being users), what I don't really understand is the collector market. It has become fairly clear to me that the collector's market is indispensible to the success of the individual maker. I also understand that there are many makers who make a great product, but never advance to the next level because they lack knowledge of the business side of the trade.

Clearly, market analysis is a complicated task. I don't need to know everything, I just want to learn enough to be capable of finding my place within the marketplace (what style, method, and price range to focus on).

Maybe I'm just overthinking this, but that seems to be a bit of a habit for me.

Have a good one,
Nathan
Click to expand...

Nathan, I have been noticing how you interact here, asking questions, challenging opinions, posting your knives for critiquing. You are on the right track.
In fact to your point regarding collectors promoting makers for their own gain, I buy from makers that for YEARS have been doing just what you are doing now. Makers that are involved, that ask the right questions, that promote themselves and the industry.

Yes, I promote makers that I like and who make great knives. I get knives that I love and that appreciate in value and the maker sells more knives. A win/win situation if I ever saw one. That's the kind of collectors that a maker needs.
 
Don Hanson III said:
It takes 10 to 20 years to become an overnight success :)
Click to expand...

That depends. In todays internet world, where people can immediately see what a maker has to offer, becoming a success can happen virtually over night. It depends on the maker and how they go about getting there name in front of those that can make them a success.
 
Don Hanson III said:
It takes 10 to 20 years to become an overnight success :)
Click to expand...

I've personally seen it happen in as few as 5, granted this is not the norm.

Ken Onion's SpeedSafe, and Kershaw's adoption of it rocketed Ken to a real serious success, by any definition.

If a knife manufacturing company shows interest in a new makers' ideas or product, this can be the beginning of a beautiful relationship.

How a maker handles this "instant" success can be another story entirely.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Keith Montgomery said:
That depends. In todays INTERNET world, where people can immediately see what a maker has to offer, becoming a success can happen virtually over night. It depends on the maker and how they go about getting there name in front of those that can make them a success.
Click to expand...

Perhaps what Don means is "sustained success" that is created over many years by satisfied customer after satisfied customer.

So many times these overnight INTERNET successes are here today and gone tomorrow.
 
Kevin Jones said:
Perhaps what Don means is "sustained success" that is created over many years by satisfied customer after satisfied customer.

So many times these overnight INTERNET successes are here today and gone tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Yep, Kevin. This is pretty much what I'm saying. Also a maker can be successful for years and not be in the spot light. Then seemingly overnight there is a buzz around his name and his knives are in demand.

Steven, Ken Onion was making knives long before Kershaw found him. His years of knife making are part of his over night success.

But ya'll are right, the internet has greatly sped up the process.
 
Don Hanson III said:
Steven, Ken Onion was making knives long before Kershaw found him. His years of knife making are part of his over night success.

But ya'll are right, the internet has greatly sped up the process.
Click to expand...

Ken's first knife sold in 1991. Patent for SpeedSafe was granted in 2000, however it was filed by Ken in 1998, assigned to Kai USA.

That means a 7 year knife making career at longest before hitting it big, which is PDQ in this business, and I seem to remember Ken telling me he made knives for 5 years before the SpeedSafe hit.

This is not to dispute your contentions, Don, not at all. I posted this for historical accuracy, and because other members might find it interesting.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
3 Keys to the Internet Overnight Success

1) Be a favorite maker of a forum and start out cheap

2) Get at least one person selling your knives for double

3) Make fewer than 20 knives a year.

Note,

Once you are no longer a "favorite" of the forum...your done.

Once you make enough knives to satisfy the demand...your done.

Remember many who scream and howl the most for the knife are the ones who can't afford the knife...but want to still join in the fun.

If the maker makes the mistake of raising their prices to match what is going on in the after market....your done.

If you are a new maker and take 40+ orders for the same knife...you are probably done. By the time you make all of those knives, people have

1) Moved on to another maker and will cancel the order without letting you know.

2) Have picked up a used one in the after market and no longer need the new one you are building for them.

3) By the time you fill the order, the next maker has been discovered and you may or may not get your chance at "Forum Favorite".

Just some observations from over the years.

WWG
 
Kohai999 said:
Ken's first knife sold in 1991. Patent for SpeedSafe was granted in 2000, however it was filed by Ken in 1998, assigned to Kai USA.

That means a 7 year knife making career at longest before hitting it big, which is PDQ in this business, and I seem to remember Ken telling me he made knives for 5 years before the SpeedSafe hit.

This is not to dispute your contentions, Don, not at all. I posted this for historical accuracy, and because other members might find it interesting.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
Click to expand...

Steven, you are a wealth of custom knife information. I just remember Ken peddling the Speedsafe before Kershaw put him on the map.
 
I bought from about 8 hand made knife maker here and am completely happy with there knives and sheaths.

After being happy with the first purchase I look for more from those makers, I actually own two or three from most of the makers. If a new maker posts I do try to support there work also. All of these knife maker's are very nice to deal with and completely upfront stand up people.

It's a two way street that should go in the same direction to me. Both knife maker and buyer/owner are happy in the end :)

I have had a couple not work out, which you have to just right off in the end.
 
Good points Les. I have had 3 go out so far, all through the forums. I have another one going out this week and one more when I get back from Europe. The 3 folks who have my knives seem to be pleased with them and hopefully the next 2 will be. When I posted them for sale on BB cheap, there were many cries of "darn....wish I had been quicker" HOWEVER, I have seen many instances where something gets posted at a reasonable price and there are as many, if not more people saying "wish I had the money right now" The foruma are a rather small part of the knife world as many of you have said.
 
If you lay out the last 10 years of Knives 1997-2007 and look at how the market has moved in style it will give you ideas on what styles are lasting and what has had it's peak and in now trailing off.

Concentrating on one style can be risky because some do not have the legs to last while others are perennial favourites. Like any investment portfolio a mix of product is probably safer than one single investment.

As a maker I prefer the broad product line approach rather than tying everything to one specific model or model line. This allows me to weather cyclical market downturns and still put groceries on the table
 
NDallyn said:
From what I have seen in my limited experience, demand in the higher-end of the market is mostly artificial. By this I mean that demand is created by promotion of individual makers by the collectors who support them, and try to create demand for the work already in their collections, especially work from ABS smiths.

Nathan
Click to expand...

Demand for the higher end of ANY product catagory, is always artificially created. No one needs to own a Tim Hancock or a Maybach.

Most of the makers that I collect, need promotion like a hole in the head. Three, Don Hanson lll, MS Kevin Cashen, MS and Jason Knight, MS have recently closed their order books. I am still waiting patiently to take my first direct delivery from Russ Andrews ll, JS, Tim Zowada and Tim Hancock, MS. Outstanding designs and workmanship deserve public recognition and I am not shy with my opinions. People are perfectly free to make up their own minds about their validity.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top