As you are gaining experience, suggest you take advantage of some of the science out there. You can look at the
KBDI Drought Index to get an idea of the fuel and soil moisture at the present time for your geography.
Even better is looking at your states fire weather forecast as it takes many variables into account. Even if I know there has been recent moisture in the region, when traveling even a short distance I check it as an area down the road could have a lack of rain. Just Google
(your state) fire weather forecast and you should find it easily. Here is an
example of mine.
Here is some more science on the subject.
As mentioned, avoid or address soils with roots at the surface or close. Also avoid soils with organic (duff) layers. These soils can hold embers underground for long periods of time and pop up later under dry conditions. Mors Kochanskis book Bushcraft (as previously mentioned) addresses this.
Science aside, the best thing you can do is pay attention to fire behavior under differing weather conditions as well as noting fuel moisture to gain your own experience. Eventually you will get a feel for it like knowing when it is going to rain.
Fire is easy to control but does not burn as well in a stable atmosphere. Things you can actually see in a stable atmosphere are clouds in layers, stratus-type clouds, smoke columns drift apart after only a slight rise, visibility is less from smoke or haze or fog, and usually if there is any wind in a stable atmosphere it is steady.
Fire burns much better and is more likely to get away from you in an unstable atmosphere. Things you can actually see in an unstable atmosphere are vertical cloud growth, cumulus-type clouds, smoke rises high, visibility is usually good, wind currents may go up and down, there could be dust whirls, and winds are gusty.
In addition to the visual indicators above, make mental notes of your campfires behavior based on fuel moisture, temperature, time of day, and relative humidity in particular. Overtime you will have a better idea for your location when its safe and when its not
in some cases that time could be just a few hours.
I've had on my to do list to make a video on extinguishing a fire sans water. Will post it here at Bladeforums when I do. Peace, Chris