When "the plan" fails

Shorttime

Shorttime

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Oct 16, 2011
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Forgive me if this has been done before in some form, and feel free to post a link, if it has.

Obviously, the subtext of knives and gear is preparedness, so that even if something unexpected happens, you have the tools and training to deal with the situation.

So, in order to prevent this from becoming another hypothetical "what knife/tool/flashlight/lighter/axe/etc would you bring for scenario X", thread, take it as a given that you have your usual kit with you.

What I'm trying to get an idea of is how to recognize the moment when things have gone wrong, in various situations.

Choose any one you like: on the way home, out in the woods for the day, or anything else you can imagine.

How do you know when things have gone wrong enough that it's time to stop trying to accomplish your goal, and start looking for firewood and other basics?
 
Dude, you just have to be realistic and look at every situation independently. I would ask you this: what makes you think you need to build a camp anyway?

If you're in a position where you need to make camp, you are almost definitely in the midst of some activity or traveling that led to that situation. I haven't heard of a guy on his daily work commute having his car break down and pitching a tent beside the I-10.

In a wilderness survival situation you're always weighing your options - it's a calculation of likelihoods. As a human you do thousands of mini calculations every day. When you pull out onto a road and a car is coming you're doing a mathematical calculation about if the car will hit you or not. Same thing applies to survival; you take all the information that is available to you and make a decision based on that information. You know that it takes 30 minutes to set up a lean to with the local materials (what trees and fallen wood is immediately available), you know that you need another 20 minutes to get a fire started and gather wood. You also want to get some material for bedding, which is another 30 minutes. Ok, you know it's 2 hours from being dark, and you're a 4 hour hike from being back to your car - you have to make a decision to either make camp or make 2 hours of your hike out in dark. You're really risking injury or getting lost if you travel in the dark, and it compounds the amount of time it will take you. Other factors will weigh in including your available food supply, the ease of obtaining food in the environment you're in, your supplies, the weather, chance of being found (does anyone know you're even missing?) - I think the most overlooked and important is probably experience. Do you have the experience to really survive? Not meaning how many survival books you've read, but have you succeeded at living off the land and spending several days providing shelter, food and water from native material in the wilderness before? If not, you need to be much more cautious in your decisions and allow for more time for everything. You're not going to ever have all the variables (you may not have a good fix on your location or surroundings, you don't know if that rabbit will hit your trap, you don't know if it's going to rain tomorrow), but you consider what you know and weigh the dangers.

In every scenario there are going to be way too much information to consider to make a clear guide for what to do. That is why wilderness survival is such a dynamic subject, and why your average American that fancies Starbucks and electric heat will NEVER be very good at it.
 
I was on a day hike with some folks I had just started working with. It was a semi-sanctioned team building exercise at a camp I was working at. Our fearless leader (Activities and programming director) had done the hike before, so had a good idea of what we needed. Or so I thought. The goal was to crawl a small cave, which was rated by him as fairly novice, after an easy two hour hike. The hike turned into three hours... "Oh yeah, we brought bikes the last time I came up, so we were able to get to the actual trailhead much easier" The first hour was a private blacktop road, not fun for the feet. Then two hours up what I would call a moderate hike. This should have been another clue that something wasn't right. While most of the group was doing alright, myself and one of the girls (now my wife) were having trouble. I'm in decent shape, but the rest of the group were natural athletes, and my hiking partner had just left university, so hadn't gotten back into out of school shape. We paused for a breather at the cave mouth, and were told that we were behind time. again, a bad sign I missed. Bad thing three hit five minutes after that, "there is way more ice in the cave than there was last time" We were fairly well equipped, coveralls, helmets, headlamps. But no one had a backup light they could carry, and the token mountaineering gear got left at the cave mouth, since there would be no way to drag it along. First squeeze, no problems, second squeeeze, bit tougher and a bit wet, but nothing major. Never in my life have I been in dark like that. the room was the size of a stadium, or so it felt. Third sqeeze, everyone buddies up, the leader and the possibly insane salvage diver are a pair, followed by the two type A hyper competitive sisters, leaving myself and a girl I had barely met to bring up the rear, (neither of us had caved before) the third squeeze was a nightmare. the shelf we had to crawl down was about half a rib-cage wide, covered in ice, with about a foot gap to the opposite wall, over a very deep chasm, full of water... I have no idea how far in we got, I'm guessing that it was maybe 12 feet, maybe a bit more when we heard from up ahead that both other groups were in the next chamber. At this point, the muscles are starting to lock, my partner has said nothing for far too long, and the water has gotten through everything. I'm a very low R-value type human, so when I run out of energy, I get cold, fast. First shiver... oh sh!t. So I called ahead that we were going back. I have no idea how we turned around, but some how were able to shove each other back out of that crack. Next problem, where is the door? We made it out, but in the car after double-timing it down the mountain (including one minor fall which could have ended very badly, due to the fearless leader guiding someone with no mountain experience down a scree slope in a rush) we found out just how badly the leader had miss judged that trip. we made it back, but he had a bit of a rough summer, given that he was supposed to be my boss, but there wasn't much trust left....

Hell of an experience, looking back I should have pulled the pin earlier, but I had trust that I could do what he said I could do. Now I pretty much don't listen to people who try to tell me what my physical capabilities are.
I've gone on other trips since then where things have gone a little sideways, but its all about your acceptable level of risk. Also who you are with, I've had other trips go pretty wrong, but I wasn't worried due to my traveling companion, I knew that we can work together and get it done.

Sometimes its about heading back to the parking lot, sometimes its about pulling the car over for a sleep. Any plan might need changing so its more about the situational awareness of re-evaluating your goals and plans as conditions change.
I try to have as many things in place day to day to adapt myself as much as possible. Part of that is I really like being comfortable. I hate being cold and wet, I hate being hungry or thirsty, or over-heated. So yeah, I could just suck it up, or I can carry a towel, water bottle, granola bar, and hat. Sure its a bit of a chore to carry stuff around every day, but to me its more than balanced out by the number of times a day has not gotten worse because of something I brought with, so I didn't have to change plans, Or so I had something available that opened up other options, for when the plan changed without me.
 
You can answer this question for yourself with real empirical facts rather than asking strangers who have no clue of your skills and capability. Here is how. Load up your vehicle with your typical pack or gear. Be honest and only take your typical load out. Go out into a new setting in the wilderness. Hike ten minutes from your vehicle - as a safety net/fail back plan. Then simulate your not going to make it back as it is too hazardous to continue. Start a timer and begin building a sustainable fire, shelter, and prepare to hunker down for the evening. Once you've reach an acceptable stopping point and your satisfied then stop the timer.

Look at the time it took you to complete this process and add at least 15 additional minutes for Mr Murphy who always seems to show up in bad situation and now you have a REAL estimate of how long you need. Now you can use this as a decision making guideline if you should push onto completing your goal-objective or stop for the night in a real outing and your running out of day light.
 
The easy answer to your question is "when it starts getting dark" and you have no idea how long it will take you to get out.
When you are wet and cold and have no idea how long it will take you to find your way out.

But it is very hard to decide just when the moment arrives that you need to hunker down and take precautions. Honestly, I have never been in a situation where I had to spend the night out in the elements unprotected and have no desire to set up a sitution that forces me to go into emergency mode.

I stay out of caves in general. I have no desire to squeeze through a hole or crack that when what you are squeezing though has absolutely no give and always envision... what happens if I get stuck and can't back out? I don't call that fun.

I have on occasion been in stituations where I am in the elements and had no practical control. They concern me a great deal. An example is to become stranded on an interstate highway in the winter due to an accident up ahead of you (and totally blocked behind due to traffic) and really have no idea how far it is off the highway to find shelter if needed. So my shelter is my vehicle and use the remaining gasoline supply with care geared toward protection rather than how far the next exit is and a gas station.
 
Shorttime said:
What I'm trying to get an idea of is how to recognize the moment when things have gone wrong, in various situations.
Click to expand...
Bottom line is that the situation changes, whether it be due to weather, injury, realization you're lost, etc. When that happens the goal is to stop doing what you were doing, and start doing what you can to change your situation back, or at least to one that's more manageable.
It's not complicated, though it may be hard to accept if it happens gradually, like weather you think or hope will blow over worsening instead. Sometimes it's hard to stop when you think you're going the right direction, too. Several years ago, when I got far enough past an injury that I could start hiking and backpacking again, I had several instances of being temporarily lost. Stupid as it sounds for someone who's spent a lot of time outdoors, done land nav courses in the military, and all that, I would argue with my map and compass("huh, my compass must be screwed up...whoever made this map is an idiot") when I wasn't where I thought I should be, even when exploring areas unfamiliar to me. Confidence is great; overconfidence can make you defy reason. Leave that ego off the "things to bring" list, and remember that Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance. Know your weather possibilities, your area, your route, your equipment, your options, and most importantly, yourself.
On the other hand, things that drastically change your situation in an instant(like an injury that impedes your mobility) are pretty hard to ignore when they happen, but at least the next course of action has been simplified for you.
 
My worst case wasn’t that bad but was a definite learning moment for me. Anything can happen and take NOTHING for granted. It actually had nothing to do with equipment or preparedness but was more a lesson in not forgetting your fundamentals, no matter how experienced you are.
It was day three of a multi-day hike / climb in the NH whites. We were going across the Kinsman ridge (the general vicinity of the cannon balls, heading towards Cannon mtn - for anyone familiar with the area). I was the most experienced hiker and climber on a small team of 3. The day was unseasonably hot and I somehow got dehydrated and was suffering from that and heat exhaustion. This was very unusual as I am religious about hydrating and had been hiking and climbing both solo and as part of large and small groups for years at this point…. But it happened. I wasn’t the first to realize something was wrong. One of my partners thought something was unusual when he saw me stumbling a little and bumping into a few trees. A general loss of coordination. Then at a trail junction, I pulled out my topo map and compass (which we didn’t actually need at that point) and could not figure out how to read it. I was convinced we were lost and unusually argumentative about it. I kept flipping the map’s orientation around and could not make heads or tails of it. I was swearing a good deal which is unlike me. Once they pointed out my behavior and I admitted I had had a headache for some time, the issue was fairly obvious. They hydrated me and got me the heck off the mountain. Had I been alone, I probably wouldn’t have realized my situation until it was full-blown heat stroke.
 
I nearly had a heat stroke once from snorkling in the Caribbean. I know about heat exhaustion.
 
I think , there is the moment things go wrong , but then , there is the moment the individual gives up his ( or her ) control of the situation .

Its not always a voluntary putting hands in the air and giving up ... a person could be knocked out or forced by default thru injury to give it up .

Each persons break point is different , some people have pushed on thru ridiculous odds , and just refused to give up , others have been so affected by shock and or fright that they never took control .

I take stock of a situation maybe different to some , I begin with basics , am I alive , am I injured , if so what am I capable of doing .. are there others with me , are they alive , what are they capable of .. and work from there , looking at what we have . What we do not have doesnt enter the picture untill we are safe and stable and can reflect on that .

I have never yet been in a situation that I have seen at the time as a survival situation , it has always been after its over and looking back that Ive let the possibilities of what could else have gone wrong , and how bad it could have got enter my head . At the time its always dealing with what is here now , and getting back on track as best as possible .

My view on it anyway .. seriously interesting question OP , thanks for making me think
 
Every situation is fluid
And being experianced is being aware of the shift and nuance of your own situation

Map reading and compass work is an example
Good map reading is not finding yourself when lost, but always staying found
Constantly checking where you are

Getting lost can be because of a wrong turn 4 km ago
Experiance is the nagging doubt 3 3/4 kms ago of something is not right, and 3 km ago for sure
But you did not pay attention

There can be no plan without risk analysis
Planning must include plan B or C or D
Conditions change then you change your plan
Be aware
 
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The idea of redundant planning makes sense. Have your backup plans and when the situation dictates that a backup plan is better than the primary plan make the switch. If nothing else sit down for a cup of tea every now and then to think about your options. People do not stop to think enough.

If you are looking for triggers here are a few for outdoorsy activities
-changes in weather
-running out of daylight
-trip or halfway point taking longer than expected
-unexpected terrain
-injury and discomfort
-general unease or gut feeling on your part or of others in the group
-water running low
-inadequate clothing or shelter

All of these should give you pause to think about if what you are doing is sensible. Sometimes turning back or taking the long way around is the smart thing to do. Many problems come from people being too stubborn to admit they are lost, unprepared, or just out of their depth. Know your limits. Example I had to turn back crossing the alps by car and take the long way around... The reason was a lack of snow chains and winter kit.Turns out that was a good call since there was heavy snow higher up. It didn't feel manly at the time to turn back but we got to our destination safely.
 
Good plans don't tend to "fail," because good planning isn't rigid. Have a plan (or several) but expect the plan to need to be continually updated as the situation evolves. Adhering to a plan too much can kill, adapting and responding, on the other hand generally has a much lower mortality rate. There is no easy set of rules for any of this, and the balancing act between sticking to a plan and changing it as needed can be a fine one that there simply is no formula for, since there will inherently be too many variables unique to any situation.

I would highly recommend giving this book a read if you are pondering this question. It's a "survival" book that isn't about gear, which is probably why it is one of my favorite books on the subject. Lots of so-called "prepared" people die, and there are lots of examples of people who didn't seem prepared at all being the lone survivor who walks out of the jungle or off the mountain (or whatever). This book explores why that is:

Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why
 
Plans
A master of their trade is one that finds their own mistakes before others and fixes them
 
I do my best to be prepared but go by the motto "survival is". I believe that you can come up with all the hypothetical situations and train/prepare to the very best of your ability (which I honestly try to) but in that moment when you truly know that plan has failed, I believe you have to just do whatever it is you need to do to survive. That will change from second to second, decision to decision. Strong will, physical capability understanding, knowing what resources you have on and around you, etc. will be a guiding factor.

What always throws me off is thinking of what I'd do with my wife and kids stuck in a bad situation with me. Sure I've gone over a zillion scenarios, doesn't mean that I'd truly be prepared if my plan failed with them along.
 
"Life is what happens when you are making other plans". Yeah, good to have a plan, but as others have said, need to be able to change, adapt, improvise. etc. Flexible mindset, plus thinking of alternative scenarios might be good. I often pass a sign in a railroad yard that reads "Think of what could go wrong". Seems like good advice. Maybe we can think of the most likely things, but who can really pre-imagine everything?
 
You can't pre-imagaine everything, but you can keep aware of things that come up. From that info, then you can adapt your strategy or kit. Like the next time I hike a waterfall in the rockies in spring, I'll take a helmet. Also talking about things that happen here and sharing ideas helps as well.
 
Shorttime said:
Forgive me if this has been done before in some form, and feel free to post a link, if it has.

Obviously, the subtext of knives and gear is preparedness, so that even if something unexpected happens, you have the tools and training to deal with the situation.

So, in order to prevent this from becoming another hypothetical "what knife/tool/flashlight/lighter/axe/etc would you bring for scenario X", thread, take it as a given that you have your usual kit with you.

What I'm trying to get an idea of is how to recognize the moment when things have gone wrong, in various situations.

Choose any one you like: on the way home, out in the woods for the day, or anything else you can imagine.

How do you know when things have gone wrong enough that it's time to stop trying to accomplish your goal, and start looking for firewood and other basics?
Click to expand...

It comes down to experience, when you spend enough time in the field you soon learn your limits. If you want to recognise the moment when it goes wrong I suggest you get out and gain some experience.
 
Worse-case is a mechanical injury or extremely severe medical issue that ceases your movement and mobility. Other than those which often require medical evacuation, the most probable, even for those experienced, is just misjudging time/distance in conjunction with sundown and/or weather. Traveling in the dark or severe weather is foolhardy; knowing your limitation and being able to take stock in your surroundings is where experience comes in.

We’ve been on numerous hikes where we just didn’t reach our goal. We often just made sure we located a spot for the night with enough daylight to setup camp and cook our meals. Water is probably the only crucial factor and making sure you have enough or can get to it within 12-24 hours.

ROCK6
 
ROCK6 said:
Water is probably the only crucial factor and making sure you have enough or can get to it within 12-24 hours.

ROCK6
Click to expand...

Yeah , just that .
water , enough of it , and drinkable .
At least here while its hitting 80 F at breakfast time and the day is barely starting to warm up water is a real issue .
Ive helped out a few people now who have cooked their cars and are waiting on help / waiting for a mug like me with a mobile to ring help for them , it is rare to find someone actually has water with them in their car , enough for an extended wait in the heat waiting on a tow truck / roadside assistance .
scary part tho really , is that some folk dont have a plan b .. they heading between towns relying on servos selling 750 ml bottles of refridgerated water and cool drinks , and car air conditioning . No thought for ya know , we having extreme heat / record breaking temps right now .. we might break down tween here n there , are we prepared ?
now tho there are gawkers and ghouls heading into bushfire areas for a look see ... with no plan b ... interesting times we live in .
 
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