Where do you see the custom....

[Keith Montgomery]

...knife industry going in the next five years?

The great topic started by Joss has got me thinking about this. What trends do you see for the next five years. Where do you see this industry going over that period?

I see the internet having an even greater influence.

There will be a trend towards more embellishments on knives. The market for upper end ($3000.00 and up) is going to expand greatly. The unadorned high quality knife will continue to make up the vast majority of knives collected. Mainly becuase that is what most people can afford.

Tactical knives will continue to be popular. The move away from black will continue. I think fighters will become a more popular part of this area of knife collecting.

I think you are going to see an upswing in the collecting of traditional Japanese styles. Time for me to learn more about this fascinating segment of our industry. I'm going to be asking people like Steven for help in this area.

We are going to see more makers expand their market to include collectors of art. Going beyond the boundries set by the number of knife specific collectors will be important for the makers of upscale knives.

You will see a culling of knife dealers that do not have good business acumen, but there will be more that come along to replace them. Those that develop their business skills, learn to recognize emerging talent, and are able to predict and help create future trends will be the ones to succeed.

As collectors become more knowledgeable makers are going to have to make better and better knives. Those that can't will fall by the wayside. Many that are making knives today will be gone in five years, but here again there will be those to take their place. I don't think this industry can continue to see the number of makers increase at the rate it has over the last five years. Collectors are not being pulled in at near the rate that new makers are emerging.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

The best makers will be the ones who can succesfully combine aesthetics, precision, AND performance, regardless of the genre along with a fair value.

I see performance+value becoming more important to the consumer than ever.

 

[HiltonP]

I big trend which has been running for sometime now in the high-end custom folders is the "fully embellished" look, i.e. a combination of many of the following ; damascus blades, damascus bolsters, mammoth, m-o-p, filework, engraving, scrimshaw, carving, etc, etc. Paging through KNIVES, or David Darom's books reveals literally hundreds and hundreds of these "sumptuous" knives. I can't help feel that this trend, which has been on the go for a couple of years now, has run its course. I'm hoping to see a return to the clean look (like the Lake's, Busfield's, Hoel's of the late 1980's) topped with a huge dose of emphasis on fit 'n finish (which has slipped a bit of late). Don't get me wrong, I like a well embellished knife, but when every 2nd one you see has been "given the treatment" it begins to loose its appeal.

I believe we will continue to see the "rise of the machine" in knifemaking. In recent years the use of CNC, either in-house, or outsourced (for liner/blade profiling, etc) has had a massive impact, but it is still perceived as a dirty little secret. Nothing brings up custom knifemaker defences faster than the three letters "CNC"! I think the future trend is that people will overcome that fear, on both sides of the knifemaking table, and it will be embraced more.

There certainly seems to have been a slowing down in the presence of tacticals, or grey/black knives. The years ahead might also be influenced by knife laws. Not governed, but influenced. More and more custom knife shows are placing restrictions on the types of knives being sold. Swordcanes are a no-no, automatics are out, as are gravity feeds, now pressure is being put on "symmetrically ground blades" (i.e. double grinds/fighters). Like it or not this will lead knifemakers to not take these types of knives to shows, which means people will not see them, and out of sight generally translates into out of mind.

I'm interested to read Anthony's comment re. performance. I believe performance has taken a back seat to embellishment of late, at least in the more high-end knives. A good department store kitchen knife will outperform many of these fancy damascus blades we're seeing. I too would like to see a return to the core values of a good custom knife (superior steel coupled with superior fit & finish).

 

[Bailey Bradshaw]

Hilton,

You made some really great comments. I hope CNC will be more embraced. I use a CNC machine in my shop and have for the last 7 years. Always open about it. It opens up so many options for me to explore as a maker that I couldn't do otherwise.

I think the emphasis on performance is maturing nicely. At first, the "high performance" knives could be crudely finished. Kind of like a dirt track car. Never had luck selling them like that, and didn't like haveing them on the table. Now it seems customers want a knife that will perform, but also want more sophistication. I like that. It's like an idea coming full circle. (Not that high performance in knives is anything new, just has been more of a focus as of late)

Fit and finish never go out of style. The education of collectors is ever increasing, and that is a great thing. It will decrease the number is inferior knives with patchwork cosmetics to make them presentable. Quality control for the entire industry sits ont eh shoulders of those who buy.

The strong trend ( but not new by any means) seems to be in the "New" makers who represent excellent value for excellent quality. I like this, as it points to a healthy future for the industry. I don't like that there are so many new makers, as the customer base gets thinner with each passing year. It has reached a point where I too think there will be a "culling of the herd" in both makers and dealers. If you survive as a maker, it will be based on quality AND value unless you are an indusrty main stay.

Japanese style pieces are on the rise it seems. I am excited about that as I love them and love to make them. They offer the biggest challenge as a maker. I also hope that this trend will not see a static adhearance to what many view as the traditional look. Japanese swords came in many different flavors, but are famous for the katana type configuration. If you are getting into these, look at the multitude os mounting styles. It's a big selection and can provide a lifetime of interest.

 

[Joss]

Hilton brings up a great point about shows:

"More and more custom knife shows are placing restrictions on the types of knives being sold. Swordcanes are a no-no, automatics are out, as are gravity feeds, now pressure is being put on "symmetrically ground blades" (i.e. double grinds/fighters). Like it or not this will lead knifemakers to not take these types of knives to shows, which means people will not see them, and out of sight generally translates into out of mind."

Combine that with the prevalence of the internet and I suspect that knife shows might be on their way out. I think some highly targeted ones will continue doing fine, as will the largest ones in NY and Atlanta. But the mid-sized regional show might be on its way out as far as customs are concerned. Personally, apart from the ABS show in Reno, I find that shows don't get me anything.

The internet has still much growth ahead of him. People will post better and better pics, and they will soon find that it's much more profitable to sell this way than at shows.

As Bailey said, I suspect we will see a large "culling of the herd". There are just too many makers. I suspect that most of them provide good quality knives in terms of f&f, and I would guess that the chances of survival of a maker will be based on style rather than f&f. Value will be important too.

 

[tom mayo]

I too would like to see a return to the core values of a good custom knife (superior steel coupled with superior fit & finish).

"Details are not the most important thing...........they are the only thing"
Michaelangelo

 

[Kevin Wilkins]

Hilton,

You made some really great comments. I hope CNC will be more embraced. I use a CNC machine in my shop and have for the last 7 years. Always open about it. It opens up so many options for me to explore as a maker that I couldn't do otherwise.

Knifemaking as a profession is a marginal business in the best of circumstances. Using CNC equipement is one of the few ways to make it work financialy. Many – actualy I think the vast majority – of Makers who actaully earn their living making knives use CNC machinery, either directly or through outsourcing parts.

I think the economics of the business will continue to make CNC machines a necessity for financial survival. The recent drastic increases in the costs of materials has to be taken up somewhere. I expect to see prices on knives continue to rise steadily.

I also agree with Baily regarding the enourmous positive impact CNC machines can have on creativity. No machine I have in my shop is more of an aid to the creative process than my CNC milling machine.

BTW: Baily, I had no idea you owned CNC machinery! What do you use? I have a Haas TM-1 from sunny California.

 

[Bailey Bradshaw]

Kevin,

I have a Fanuc W-0 wire EDM. LOVE IT !!!!! Would be awesome to have a Haas machining center too.

 

[db]

I could be way off but I see in the next 5 years the custom market getting smaller. I think with the factory knives closing the gap and getting better and better the custom makers are loosing customers eccept for the more die hard collectors. The custom guys are going to have to become good business men as well as good knife makers.

 

[Tim Galyean]

Kevin,

I have a Fanuc W-0 wire EDM. LOVE IT !!!!! Would be awesome to have a Haas machining center too.

Now that is cool!!!:thumbup: I am starting to play with one at work, quite the learning curve.

 

[Kevin Wilkins]

Cool Baily! I can see how a wire machine would be very useful for your folders. But I don't want to hijack this thread.

Back on topic....

I think db makes a very good point regarding the increases in quality from the leading factory knives. The factories who are now industry leaders are the ones who offer high quality and innovative design. The other guys are either out of business, on their way to going out of business or they are hurting and scrambling to pull up to the bar. Many of the market leaders in the knife industry are market leaders beause they have outsourced their design and R&D to custom makers, who's designs they have purchased and put into production!

The quality bar has indeed been raised way up there for both custom makers and factory product. I certainly think the custom maker who is unable to put out a really top quality knife will see their customer base shrink to nothing. Same story for the factories.

On the good side for us custom makers, the prices for high qulaity factory knives have risen substantially too. Even the Taiwan and Chinese made CRKT are no longer sooooo cheap.

 

[Shing]

The current custom knife market is quite diverse. There is the dedicated user who wants a high performance piece of kit, the gadget buff who always want the latest thing in steel, locks or designs, the art collector who wants beautifully made and finished works of bladed art and the person who wants a connection to an age old craft and the product of a creative and dedicated craftsperson and baulk at anything machine made, wholly or partly.

Apart from the common theme of a blade, these could be considered quite separate clientel and markets. I think the next phase in the market would be greater specialisation from the client and the makers.

To get even higher standards, I think makers will need to become more specialised, concentrating on a narrower range of products but doing it to a higher standard. The danger is that if that market segment shrinks or disappears, all the hardwon skills would be redundant and the makers have to re-train.

The knife business should also be trying its hardest to expand its customer base and increase the prices. The handmade knife buying world is tiny and the price commanded by the top makers do not reflect the skills or creativity they display in their products unlike other areas of art like ceramics, sculpture and high end watch making. This is an area that needs to be addressed with some urgency and resources.