A poll: Murphy's Law

[Happy Camper]

How many of us in here have the utmost respect for Murphy's Law? I have extended it beyond "whatever can go wrong will" with: "and be extra wary of those things that can't go wrong that do anyway." By keeping those things in mind, I've been able to avoid countless mishaps that could have really snagged me.

I think, in a nutshell, survival is synonymous with Murphy. Am I wrong?

 

[HM]

IMHO, most people are more or less prepared for mishaps that often heard of or occur. Bigger danger may rely in ones that rarely happen but when they do their impact is potentially deadly. Other potentially catastrophic situ when more than one thing go wrong and escalate into unexpected mishaps.
Example for the first scenario: heavy snowstorm during the time of the year when it is absolutely unexpected happens once in a decade. If you have seen The Perfect Storm you know what I am talking about. Example for the second one: lone hunter gets lost and injured.
Similar combinations are known in the fields of engineering and avoided by increased (by several fold) overdesign and overlapping safety precautions. Same might apply to outdoor preparations (several different fire starters, tripled number of waterproof matches, back-up folder/shelter/layer).

Hope that makes sense,

HM


[This message has been edited by HM (edited 04-29-2001).]

 

[Alberta Ed]

And TWO knives... maybe three...

 

[coyotlviejo]

I like to keep in mind the "Rule of threes" that is credited to the Nez Perce tribe. It says that you should always seek three different sources of fulfillment for all necessary resources.

So, if possible, try to find three different sources of water. Three different sources of fuel for your fire. Three different sources of nutrition. Three different sources from which shelter could be made.

Of course, this philosophy is mostly applied to natural resources around you, but it would be applicable to gear, as well. A bic, a ferro rod, and waterproof matches. A filter, iodine drops, and something to boil water in. A knife, another knife, another knife, another knife, another knife...

You get the picture...



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Camine con tranquilidad, sirva con humildad, y viva en paz.

 

[Happy Camper]

I like the rule of threes, but what I had in mind was a more general approach to estimating risk; Looking for risk where there seems to be none, or even minimizing any factors that aren't certain.

One example is a 15+ mile hike through a rugged arid region. Along route are two small streams that always run during May, but are dry most of the summer. Now water is very heavy, especially two full days worth. But I choose to cary it because I've met Murphy before in the form of a dry streambed in May that forgot it was supposed to be running.

Two knives is great minimum! I once had a brand new "survival machete" fail on me due to a defect on my fourth chop, and I was left with carefully wrapped meat and no campfire to cook with.

But the best defenses against Murphy are the little things, like gathering water the night before just in case something happens to the source before morning; Planning a backup route in case the primary is flooded by a swollen creek during a heavy rain; bringing enough flashlights and batteries to last everyone for at least four hours in case events lead to an emergency midnight hike.

All those things have happened to me, and unfortunately many of them caught me with my pants down. "What were the odds of this happening?" is more fun to say when you prepared for it than when you didn't.

Me and Murphy are tight. Perhaps it was that damn mummy's curse I got in that mineshaft...

 

[coletassoft]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by coyotlviejo:
I like to keep in mind the "Rule of threes" that is credited to the Nez Perce tribe. It says that you should always seek three different sources of fulfillment for all necessary resources.

</font>

Yep, that´s why important computer system run on "triple redundancy". This means that there are 3 ´puters running the exact same thing at the same time; the fist one is doing whatever it is suppossed to be doing, the second one is the backup, it is running the same operations as the main machine, in case it goes down; and the third is -you guessed it- running the same operations the other two are doing just in the *very* unlikely case that the second one goes offline.

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The Truth is out there. Go out once in a while and look for it.