Are we ruining the secondary market?

[Tai Goo]

In my opinion, personal attacts and responses that are also personal attacks have no place in a thread that has been posted for other reasons. This comment probably doesn't belong here either, but children DO need to be corrected at the time of infraction.

You are right,... I apologize. Back to topic!

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi David,

I understand what bragging and arrogance are. I have been accused of both more times than I can count.

I was raised to accept responsibility for my actions. I realize that this is a trait that is fading especially with younger adults. Accepting responsibility for my actions was reinforced while serving as an Infantry Officer with the 101st.

This was the first time I was introduced to the saying:

Maximum effective range of an excuse is Zero Meters. (Feel free to use that during the hiring process).

I can understand not wanting to hire someone who thinks a lot of their ability. No doubt in Corporate America today, with the Kumbaya environment, one person speaking up, taking charge, setting the example and holding others accountable could have a negative affect on the business.

Is it any wonder that according to the SBA, only 1% of all new business's started will still be in business 10 years later.

When I was a Military Intelligence Company Commander. I caught several of my NCO's talking to Privates and Specialist telling them to 'not try so hard on their Physical Fitness Test". See it was easier for those NCO's to talk those soldiers who were in their teams and squads, than it was to put forth the physical effort to increase their test scores.

It is the same in the corporate sector. The last person you want to hire...is the person who could ultimately become the boss. So many companies shy away from the go-getters.

All of us have a "comfort zone". The older we get the less we want to venture out of our comfort zone. Why..because it is uncomfortable!

At the end of the day, the true judge of an individual...is the individual. If you can look yourself in the mirror and are truly happy with the person looking back. You have achieved the ultimate success.

If you don't like what the boss thinks of you...he fires you or you quit.

If you don't like what your friends think of you...you get new friend.

If you don't like what your spouse thinks of you...you get rid of that spouse.

If you don't like what you think about you. You either change what you don't like. Or you accuse others of being conceited, arrogant or bragging. Why, because it makes you feel better about yourself and it is easier to try and force people to a lower level than it is to bust your ass and move up to a higher level yourself.

Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Tai,

Fair enough.

You are correct, Im not good at giving up. I blame/credit my father and the US Army for that.

If it will make you feel any better. I get a good nights sleep every night.

You don't have to concede any points or give me the "Hey! you da man!

You speak your mind which is what I look for. Too many people are caught up in the Kumbaya that is slowly creeping into too many places.

Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com

 

[Tai Goo]

I think "honesty" is still the best policy...

But I'm not saying, that honesty has to be either negative or positive, it can be both or neither.

The primary market and the secondary market are intertwined and the separation between the two only exists in our concept of "The Market",... and as a tool in our analysis of "The Market".

We are all ONE, "The Market" is ONE, and just a reflection of each other and ourselves.

I'm feeling much better now,... now that I have taken my St. John's Wort.

Hey! It's all good!

 

[Tai Goo]

Hi Tai,

Fair enough.

You are correct, Im not good at giving up. I blame/credit my father and the US Army for that.

If it will make you feel any better. I get a good nights sleep every night.

You don't have to concede any points or give me the "Hey! you da man!

You speak your mind which is what I look for. Too many people are caught up in the Kumbaya that is slowly creeping into too many places.

Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com

That's what I like about you.

You are alright in my book!

Now,... Hit us with some honesty and some "information" towards this topic and maybe we can argue over that!

 

[Trent Rock]

Do we collectors have the ability to at least impact secondary market pricing if not control it by what we ask for or accept for our knives?

Every buyer has an impact
I don't know about CONTROLLING the prices though
That is a pretty bold statement
I say no
If it was an monopoly or (even an oligopoly)==>yes
I see the custom knife market as "perfect competetion"

Your knives are so outside the mainstream

Isn't that called product differentiation??
That is a good thing last time I looked
You call your self an entrepreneur and you criticize the guy for making and/or selling knives that are outside the mainstream??
That's what it is ALL ABOUT dude!!
Got make your knife different from the next guy's.........

In economics, successful product differentiation leads to monopolistic competition and is inconsistent with the conditions for perfect competition, which include the requirement that the products of competing firms should be perfect substitutes.

Monopolistic competition=higher ROI :thumbup:

I'm not really into custom knives but I have been trying to analyze the custom knife market from an economic/financial standpoint

Now that I got some "entrepreneurs" in the custom knife market on the line, I have a few questions:

1)What is the ratio of knife show sales to on-line sales?
Has this ratio changed since, say, the mid 90's?
Are the knife shows a dying venue for buying and selling knives with the rise of The Net?
As a typical, lazy, American I like buying my knives online

2)Where on the product life cycle do you think the Custom Knife Market is at currently?
What year do you think was the PEAK?
Or has it yet to reach the PEAK??
On a macro level
As a whole

I have my opinions/observations, but, I want to hear others first
Don Hansen III votes for the GROWTH phase

Art market and the collector knife market huh?
I think there are some similarities
The economics of collectibles are very complex..IMHO
Here are a couple links====>
http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=54330719
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Price+determination+for+a+collectible+good:+the+case+of+rare+U.S....-a015669369
http://www.jstor.org/pss/1059742

I think knives are more liquid than art
I also think that in art there isn't really an equilibrium price like most other goods
One guy will pay 1 dollar and another will pay 10,000
(I guess you could say the same thing for collector knives)

Given the rule of supply and demand, makers creating very refined pieces will tend to hold their value, or even increase, sometimes dramatically

That is from the Classical School of economic thought
See A Wealth of Nations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_theory_of_value
I tend to agree with the Labor Theory of Value myself
I'm not so sure that affects the rate of appreciation though
It applies more to the initial price......

This is an interesting thread:thumbup:
Any thread with secondary mkts, entrepreneurs, trends and cycles is fine with me

BTW
I was taught that the definition of an entrepreneur was===> the keen ability to take risks and manage all factors of production efficiently :
Land
Labor
Capital

The entrepreneur also has the ability to read where on the product life cycle a product lies
The entrepreneur strives to get out of the market at the very PEAK of Maturity Phase
(The money is in the Introduction and Growth stages ya know )
Time to move one to the next product (service)
DECIDING on the next good or service is the hard part


I don't have any custom knives yet
BUT
I am going to the Solvang Show in 11 days!!
It will be my first ever knife show
I'm gonna bring a hundred bucks and my Visa Card (if they take them) just in case I see something I like
(The most I have spent on a knife so far is 62 bucks)
Names don't really mean much to me
I just want something that looks cool and sorta UNIQUE
Maybe a small boot dagger with meteorite inlay and a black matte blade or something like that

What is the deal with the "lottery knives" at the Solvang Show?
If I win a chance to buy a knife, should I swoop on it?
Am I GUARANTEED to make a profit on it if I re-sell it??
It would seem that the laws of supply and demand would dictate so

 

[Kevin Jones]

Wow. Very busy today, but glad I was able to check in and read some post.

Trent, first welcome to the world of custom knives and I wish you luck at Solvang.
And thanks for one of the best post on a custom knife/financials thread I can remember. :thumbup:

Can't wait to check out those links.

 

[betzner]

Trent - One comment to you on knife shows versus online dealers. If you can get into the knife show quickly enough (which is difficult to do at Solvang), you can often buy a knife for less than the online dealer price. Many, many online dealers shop at knife shows to get many of their knives - then mark them up.

Now, as to Solvang, your credit card will come in alot more handy than a hundred bucks. Solvang tends to attract the higher end.

 

[Kevin Jones]

I'm not really into custom knives but I have been trying to analyze the custom knife market from an economic/financial standpoint

Now that I got some "entrepreneurs" in the custom knife market on the line, I have a few questions:

Was hoping one of our resident experts would answer, but since not I will take a stab at it. :foot:

1)What is the ratio of knife show sales to on-line sales?

Good question. If substantiated data is what you seek, custom knives is not a place to find much. I would say the vast majority of sales are on-line sales as they encompass new and secondary market knives as knife shows sales are predominately primarily market sales. And of course on-line dealers have access to many more collectors.

Has this ratio changed since, say, the mid 90's?

Yes, of course as the INTERNET has grown by leaps and bounds.

Are the knife shows a dying venue for buying and selling knives with the rise of The Net?

No, as IMO knife show sales are still strong, it's just that on-line dealers are tapping other markets such as collectors that don't go to shows.

2)Where on the product life cycle do you think the Custom Knife Market is at currently?

IMO, the primary market is still growing and the secondary market is peaking. If the secondary market starts to decline the primary market will most likely peak and then start to decline if the secondary market is not brought into check.
In less confusing terms, one drives the other.

What year do you think was the PEAK?

Is yet to peak.

I don't have any custom knives yet
BUT
I am going to the Solvang Show in 11 days!!
It will be my first ever knife show
I'm gonna bring a hundred bucks and my Visa Card (if they take them) just in case I see something I like
(The most I have spent on a knife so far is 62 bucks)
Names don't really mean much to me
I just want something that looks cool and sorta UNIQUE
Maybe a small boot dagger with meteorite inlay and a black matte blade or something like that

What is the deal with the "lottery knives" at the Solvang Show?
If I win a chance to buy a knife, should I swoop on it?
Am I GUARANTEED to make a profit on it if I re-sell it??
Nothing is GUARANTEED in custom knives. I GUARANTEE that.

It would seem that the laws of supply and demand would dictate so

***********************************

 

[topher]

Well said, Sir.

 

[Trent Rock]

LOL
Yeah I know custom knives are expensive!!!
I took a look in Nordic Knives a few weeks ago

I'm gonna go on Friday early (hopefully) :thumbup:

Like I said
I have limited knowledge of the custom knife world====>
It seems to me that the market is over saturated with makers
Too many names

Bill Ankrom
Van Barnett
C. Bennica (France)
Gary Blanchard
Phil Boguszewski
Frank Centofante
Joel Chamblin
Bill Cheatham
Joe Cordova
Dellana
T.M. Dowell
Kaj Embretsen (Sweden)
Ernest Emerson
Curt Erickson
Paul Gerard Farina
H.H. Frank
Dennis Friedly
Larry Fuegen, MS
Stanley Fujisaka
Tom & Gwen Guinn
Tim Hancock, MS Koji Hara (Japan)
Phill Hartsfield
Jay Hendrickson, MS
Gil Hibben
Harumi Hirayama (Japan)
Howard Hitchmough
Steve Hoel
D'Alton Holder
Jess Horn
Tom Hutton
Steve Johnson
Linda Karst-Stone
Joe Kious
Randy Lee
Steve Likarich
Wolfgang Loerchner
Simon Lytton
Jeff Morgan
Ken McFall
Bud Nealy
Ron Newton, MS
onny Walker Nilsson (Sweden)
Nordic Knives
Ken Onion
Warren Osborne
Oso Famoso
Chris Reeve
Zaza Revishvili
Scott Sawby
Eugene Shadley
Scott Slobodian
John W. Smith
Jim Sornberger
Rhett Stidham (RKS)
Masao Takahashi (Japan)
Leon Thompson
P.J. Tomes, MS
Ricardo Velarde
Julie Warenski
Daniel Winkler, MS
& Karen Shook
Owen Wood
Yoshindo Yoshihara
(Japan)
Etc...Etc....
http://knifemakersdatabase.com/CustomKnivesKnifemakersDB.html
I'm guessing back in the old days there were say maybe 50-100 makers??
More along the lines of an oligopoly??
Getting a custom knife was hard(er) to get??
Having a Darryl Ralph was special and rare?
The 1st and ONLY one on the block with a Darryl Ralph??
I read the Custom Forum and I see every day===>"Hey guys!! I got my new Jim Smith today!!!"
That is what got me thinking about too many names/over saturation
Maybe it's because home forges/machinery are getting more affordable?
Maybe because of the internet/easy access to info on knifemaking?
Or it could be just because it is a fun hobby
To me it seems like "everyone and their mother" is making knives

I guess there is no real way to quantify the amount of custom knives produced every year
Has growth in the ABS been linear? I wonder
How many ABS members are there compared to say the early 80's
Do ABS members command a higher price than non-ABS members??

I do think with the rise of low, quality, foreign made import knives, that the Custom Market will attract more collectors who put a premium on quality

Maybe the Custom Market is in a settling in period
Economic Darwinism
The strong survive and the weak fall by the way side
The ones who make "good" knives at fair price will remain strong, while the n00bys who make "bad" knives will go insolvent and fade away

At first I thought the market was either in the tail end of the Growth stage or very near the Maturity PEAK
Now I am beginning to wonder

So what will the Decline phase look like??
Ebay, Wal-Mart and 7-11 will be selling knives by every Tom (Mayo), Dick (Atkinson) and Harry (Matthews)

And thanks for one of the best post on a custom knife/financials thread I can remember

I am an economist
So naturally I am fascinated by how markets "work"
Ebay has been one GIANT economic experiment for me this last year :thumbup:
If you want to know what it is like living as an economist I suggest:
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
And
The Undercover Economist: Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, Why the Poor Are Poor--And Why You Can Never Buy a Decent Used Car!

I started collecting knives about a year ago
I always liked knives since I was a kid but never really thought about collecting them as a hobby
I'm like a lot of you here===>
I sell a few knives here and there to make a profit to offset the costs on the knives I REALLY want
I was thinking about buying 2 knives at the Solvang Show and selling one to offset the other
Who knows
I'm mostly going because I want to check out some cool custom knives and Solvang is only about 30 minutes from my house
And even though I get great pleasure sitting on my lazy a$$, and clicking BUY or BID and buying knives
I do believe in handling the knife in person (when possible)

****************************************************************************************************
So
I bought a couple Russell Green River knife blanks
I bought a couple of books on knifemaking and want to get into knifemaking as a hobby
I was surfing on EBAY and saw meteorite "slices"===>
"That's it Trent!!! Your rich!!! You can make a knife with meteor inlayed into the wood handles!!! You're gonna win the Bladesmith Rookie of the Year Award with this knife!!!"
I was counting my money then I did a search
Looks like people are already making meteorite BOLSTERS
Doh!!!
Lost out again
Too late..You snooze you lose...

BTW..I wasn't trying to be rude calling out Mr. Robinson on his entrepreneur tag
I think everyone has entrepreneurial traits in them
Some are better at it then others===>
They have the "vision" to see when it is time to get out of the current market and into a new, emerging one
And actually taking risks..That is the hard part and the one that takes the most guts
It sounds like Les must be doing something right if he has been in it for 30 yrs...:thumbup:
********************************************************************************************
Thanks for the warm welcome
I'm gonna bring my beloved Canon S80 to the show
Not sure if the allow pictures inside or not
If they do..I'll post some pics and give you my observations as a n00by knife show dude

 

[thombrogan]

Trent,

Les' last name is Robertson. Though it may as well be Robinson as he seems to get Caruso-fied a whole lot.

Sorry to read that you gave up on the meteorite-inlaid knives. It doesn't matter that others are using meteoite for their bolster material as there are myriad ways to apply said material to a knife including doing it the same way only better.

 

[betzner]

Trent, didn't notice you were "Central Coast, Ca". Morro Bay here.

 

[Tai Goo]

Trent, One of the things you will see with mainstream trends is that the market becomes saturated with certain types of knives. When that happens prices tend to drop off,… people get tired of seeing the same things and start to look for something different.

Established trends fade and new trends emerge...

 

[Keith Montgomery]

I'm guessing back in the old days there were say maybe 50-100 makers??
More along the lines of an oligopoly??
Getting a custom knife was hard(er) to get??
Having a Darryl Ralph was special and rare?
The 1st and ONLY one on the block with a Darryl Ralph??
I read the Custom Forum and I see every day===>"Hey guys!! I got my new Jim Smith today!!!"
That is what got me thinking about too many names/over saturation
Maybe it's because home forges/machinery are getting more affordable?
Maybe because of the internet/easy access to info on knifemaking?
Or it could be just because it is a fun hobby
To me it seems like "everyone and their mother" is making knives

I guess there is no real way to quantify the amount of custom knives produced every year
Has growth in the ABS been linear? I wonder
How many ABS members are there compared to say the early 80's
Do ABS members command a higher price than non-ABS members??

Maybe the Custom Market is in a settling in period
Economic Darwinism
The strong survive and the weak fall by the way side
The ones who make "good" knives at fair price will remain strong, while the n00bys who make "bad" knives will go insolvent and fade away

At first I thought the market was either in the tail end of the Growth stage or very near the Maturity PEAK
Now I am beginning to wonder

So what will the Decline phase look like??
Ebay, Wal-Mart and 7-11 will be selling knives by every Tom (Mayo), Dick (Atkinson) and Harry (Matthews)

Depending on how far you go back, in the old days there were only a handful of makers keeping the art alive. It really wasn't until the sixties that things started on the upswing. About the mid nineties the custom knife industry started to explode. Now there are thousands of makers worldwide.

Actually, back in the sixties and early seventies it wasn't difficult to get a custom knife. Makers like Bob Loveless didn't have huge backlogs. You could get a knife pretty quick and for a decent price. In the late sixties a really good custom hunter would cost $35.00 to $50.00. You could pay that much for a Puma at that time.

I think there are too many makers, but I also think the market will level things off after awhile. Oversaturation will lead to thinning out of the number of knifemakers.

When it comes to how many custom knives are made each year, I don't have an answer to that. However, I believe it to probably be over one hundred thousand. When you consider the number of knifemakers worldwide, that number may even be an underestimation.

Growth in the ABS has seen the same kind of explosion that has been seen in the rest of the custom knife world. You are seeing an ever expanding number of apprentice smiths joining the ABS each year. In the early eighties there were only a handful. ABS JS and MS do usually command higher prices than other makers, but this is not always the case. The are lots of makers that command as high, or higher prices than these ABS makers.

I agree, the strong will survive and the weak will perish, but there will always be more weak to move in to replace them.

I think the custom knife market is still going to expand, but the current economic situation may put the brakes on that for awhile.

The phases will go up and down. The decline phase will just see more makers unable to sustain a living. You will see a culling of those that aren't strong enough to survive.

 

[A. G. Russell]

Depending on how far you go back, in the old days there were only a handful of makers keeping the art alive. It really wasn't until the sixties that things started on the upswing. About the mid nineties the custom knife industry started to explode. Now there are thousands of makers worldwide.

Actually, back in the sixties and early seventies it wasn't difficult to get a custom knife. Makers like Bob Loveless didn't have huge backlogs. You could get a knife pretty quick and for a decent price. In the late sixties a really good custom hunter would cost $35.00 to $50.00. You could pay that much for a Puma at that time.

I think there are too many makers, but I also think the market will level things off after awhile. Oversaturation will lead to thinning out of the number of knifemakers.

When it comes to how many custom knives are made each year, I don't have an answer to that. However, I believe it to probably be over one hundred thousand. When you consider the number of knifemakers worldwide, that number may even be an underestimation.

Growth in the ABS has seen the same kind of explosion that has been seen in the rest of the custom knife world. You are seeing an ever expanding number of apprentice smiths joining the ABS each year. In the early eighties there were only a handful. ABS JS and MS do usually command higher prices than other makers, but this is not always the case. The are lots of makers that command as high, or higher prices than these ABS makers.

I agree, the strong will survive and the weak will perish, but there will always be more weak to move in to replace them.

I think the custom knife market is still going to expand, but the current economic situation may put the brakes on that for awhile.

The phases will go up and down. The decline phase will just see more makers unable to sustain a living. You will see a culling of those that aren't strong enough to survive.

In 1968 I was able to find, and visit, only 15 knifemakers, from Alaska's Sigwine to Florida's Randall. While visiting Ed Henry in Northen California I saw a unique boot knife in his collection marked R. W. Loveless, Lawndale, California and added a 16th maker to my list. I am busy cleaning up my list of makers and find that there are now over 3,000 world wide. I am sure that this list in by no means complete. I find that over 50 makers have died and another 50 or so have retired or moved on to other areas of interest.

Over the past 44 years I have watched many makers fail for lack of talant and many more with talant fail for lack of business knowledge.

The one thing that has increased steadily year after year has been the supply of people willing to spend greater and greater amounts of money for quality knives.

Someone asked if the internet would wipe out knife shows. Not hardly! There is nothing like holding a knife to bring about a sale.

all the best,

A. G.

 

[ptgdvc]

Established trends fade and new trends emerge...

...and old trends re-emerge as new...

It is like the tides and the circle of time...Kumbaya

P

 

[Tai Goo]

...and old trends re-emerge as new...

It is like the tides and the circle of time...Kumbaya

P

Given time,... on this you are correct!

History repeats itself and the pendulum swings in both directions.

 

[Kevin Jones]

In 1968 I was able to find, and visit, only 15 knifemakers, from Alaska's Sigwine to Florida's Randall. While visiting Ed Henry in Northen California I saw a unique boot knife in his collection marked R. W. Loveless, Lawndale, California and added a 16th maker to my list. I am busy cleaning up my list of makers and find that there are now over 3,000 world wide. I am sure that this list in by no means complete. I find that over 50 makers have died and another 50 or so have retired or moved on to other areas of interest.

Over the past 44 years I have watched many makers fail for lack of talant and many more with talant fail for lack of business knowledge.

The one thing that has increased steadily year after year has been the supply of people willing to spend greater and greater amounts of money for quality knives.

Someone asked if the internet would wipe out knife shows. Not hardly! There is nothing like holding a knife to bring about a sale.
all the best,

A. G.

Very true AG.
Without shows knife collecting would not be the same.

 

[peterinct]

In 1968 I was able to find, and visit, only 15 knifemakers, from Alaska's Sigwine to Florida's Randall. While visiting Ed Henry in Northen California I saw a unique boot knife in his collection marked R. W. Loveless, Lawndale, California and added a 16th maker to my list. I am busy cleaning up my list of makers and find that there are now over 3,000 world wide. I am sure that this list in by no means complete. I find that over 50 makers have died and another 50 or so have retired or moved on to other areas of interest.

Over the past 44 years I have watched many makers fail for lack of talant and many more with talant fail for lack of business knowledge.

The one thing that has increased steadily year after year has been the supply of people willing to spend greater and greater amounts of money for quality knives.

Someone asked if the internet would wipe out knife shows. Not hardly! There is nothing like holding a knife to bring about a sale.

all the best,

A. G.

That's really interesting information from someone that undoubtedly would know such things.

Also, I agree that there is no substitute for holding a knife, or any item of interest for that matter.

Thanks,
Peter