Bug out - What conditions?

R

Racerx2oo3

Joined
Aug 22, 2005
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174
Let me first start this off by saying that I look at the idea of bugging out as a last resort. There would have to be an awfully good reason where staying put was absolutely not a viable option. But given the unlikely event that something was prompting a total evacuation of the area I got to thinking about what conditions might be like. While I live in California, I really don't see an Earthquake causing me to bug out. First off it'll come without warning. And unless the entire neighborhood is on fire, I can't see any reason not to shelter in place. The same is pretty much true of a Tsunami, although the Bay Area where I live has little danger of a Tsunami.

So what conditions have caused people to flee there homes in the past? I thought about it and all I could come up with was:
  1. Huricanes - Both Katrina and Andrew displaced people. As have others thoughout history.
  2. The Dust Bowl - (1931 - 1939)
  3. The Great Depression - (1930's)
  4. The Civil War

Although the middle two I'm not sure I consider bugging out as you were dealing with essentially refugee situations.

Personally the only thing that would prompt me to bug out: Nuclear or Biological attack with in a 50 mile radius. Major industiral or chemical accident within a 10 mile radius.

Or ZOMBIES!

I'm interested in what dangers other see.

Sean
 
I, like you, find very little reason to bug out.....i have alot of preps here at the house and plan on sheltering here. I don't have anywhere to bug out to, no friends or family with good meeting places in secluded, far away mountain homes. So bugging out would mean heading to the Sierra and "really" bugging to the High Sierra jeep trails that I know and living off the land. It would take alot for me to leave my home. Nuclear or bio would be it.....everything else.....I think I can deal with....at least i hope the "zombies" don't show up.:eek: peace, John
 
I have weekly zombie attacks on my home and i use the ninja lazers to take em out.

"got a little captin in you?":barf:
 
Way back when Posters where a big deal there was one one a Flower and the caption read "In Case of Nuculear Attack Bend Over, Grab Your Ankles and Kiss Your Sweet A$$ Good By".

I figure You have 15-20 minutes of the Fighting The Good Fight or Hit the Hills and hope for the best, living off the land...Prepare for both.

Karsten
 
datsgor said:
...So bugging out would mean heading to the Sierra and "really" bugging to the High Sierra jeep trails that I know and living off the land...
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I live in Modesto. I'll be the one shooting at you with a .270 Win to keep your sad Bay Area a$$ moving west.

When SFO takes that North Korean nuc, Mo-town will be fine (assuming normal prevailing winds)...Freno will be up crap creek with out the prevebial paddle.
 
Well, I think there are short term conditions and long term conditions...I would suspect there are a whole lot more short term than long. Staying put is probably the best solution (at least it is for me), but I've been in several situations where a short term bug out was necessary:

1) Threat of forest/range fire
2) Threat of flood
3) Mt. St. Helens-volcanic eruption
4) Nearby railcar chemical spill
5) Ruptured gas line in the neighborhood

There are plenty of other issues that could drive you from your castle for short term, and I think you need to be prepared for that. I was in military housing on base when we had a severe storm and power outage. We couldn't use portable heaters (housing regulations) and my generator was in temporary storage. We could have made it but it was way too miserable and we "bugged out" to a motel and then off to visit the in-laws. It was nice just to grab the backbacks, a few extra clothes and be off within a half-hour once we decided to take off.

When we lived near the Hanford nuclear plant, my parents had plans to depart if needed. That's one situation where it would be "not-coming-back" bug-out. I plan to hunker down, but I'm also prepared to pop-smoke and depart quickly if needed.

ROCK6
 
I agree That Bug out is probably a last resort and aside from the aforementioned

Flood (or threat of)
Fire (or threat of)
Nuclear/biological/chemical (or threat of)

I pack some of my "bugout" gear to respond to my rescue squad During blizards and bad storms in case i am stuck there for a while.


Speaking as someone who will have to come and save people who dont "Bug Out" early enough. Get out at the first warning, dont make me have to come for you in a boat if you are told to get out while its still okay to walk or drive.
 
I agree that unless there is a very good reason to leave stay. If there was some type TEOTWAWKI situation you may have to leave because you may not be able to support yourself at your present location. Short term could mean a night at a local hotel/motel while a Haz Mat spill is cleaned up or flooding goes down. We had a situaion in towm where a neighborhood of prefab homes vents were blocked by snow during a blizzard and they had to be evacuated until the snow could be cleared as CO2 was building up in the homes.
 
In very broad general terms, it would have to be something that was becoming immediately life threatening.

That might be Chems or Bios, run run! The true type of hasty BugOut.

Or as mentioned it may like the DustBowl where it became evident that people wouldn't be able to survive, feed themselves, etc. That is a much slower type of realization.

As long as you don't see or perceive an immenent threat, probably better staying home.

Again, preparedness is the name of the game, do you have a way to keep warm, stay sheltered, get water, etc etc etc.
 
Ten years ago we had a SAC air force base 10 miles away, so we generally considered ourselves to be at ground zero for a nuclear attack. I hoped then to have enough early warning to get into the basement and hoped the mountain between me and there would act as a blast shield.

The base is now closed, opportunity missed.

I live in a rural area. There's a maximum security prison (Clinton Correctional Facility, Dannemora) six miles away from me.

In a SHTF scenario, it is possible that there could be a massive prison break and these guys would be roaming the area looking for food and shelter and everything else. These "guys" are killers and father rapers. Zombies.

So I would have all guns on deck. On the other hand, my community is settled by current and retired corrections officers and I think some of them own things that can't be mentioned. I think I would be safe. But it might turn into a shooting gallery.
 
All I have to say is that over the last few months, I've prepared a couple different bug-out kits, designed to let me and my family camp out for a few days, if need be. I'm an hour or less away from fairly "wild" land where my family could lay low. More importantly, I just signed a lease on a house with a full, sturdy basement and lots of closet/pantry space for food and drinking water.

I don't live near any military bases, nuclear facilities, prisons etc. so I don't think that's a problem. Very few hurricanes or earthquakes here... you can easily wait out a tornado, blizzard or storm here. Frankly, the more I think about it, the happier I am to live in central WI.

One thing I definitely recommend, is to buy an extra case of water or canned goods and so forth every payday. It adds up fast but doesn't really impoact the family budget.
 
The university in my city has a nuclear reactor, it's in the west end of town, I'm in the east end, still not very reassuring. We're located along the Niagara escarpment so the older & more central parts of town are below the escarpment while the newer suburban sprawl is mostly a couple hundred feet higher in elevation. In the winter "downtown" is often sheltered from the worst winds & blowing snow that can plague people living "up the mountain". In the spring or when it rains heavily there is sometimes localized flooding (mostly when the water treatment plants reach capacity) in the east end. I'm looking at buying my first home next year & have been thinking quite a bit about both natural & man made catastrophes. Seems like no matter where you plan to set up shop there is something nearby that could potentially end up being a liability to you or your home.

Where I am now I have a pantry and generally 15 to 20 gallons of bottled water on hand so I can sit through a few days of whatever hopefully but this is a woodframed, sided house so with too many windows so I don't expect it would hold up to too much huffing & puffing. As for bugging out, I'm ashamed to say I'm not really prepared, although I've been thinking about it. Don't really have a back-up place to head to though...
 
GibsonFan said:
...One thing I definitely recommend, is to buy an extra case of water or canned goods and so forth every payday. It adds up fast but doesn't really impoact the family budget.
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An excellent idea. I don't normally eat generic brand foods, but you can find store brands of canned goods like "Cost-Cutter", etc. on sale for 4/$1. But four of each variety, a case, or half case a week. If you get to know a manager, you might even get to buy with an employee or bulk discount. Modern canned goods have a long shelf life. Some vegetables get mushy over time, but if you rotate them in a reasonable schedule, they will keep you supplied in tough times. You can make what I call a "five can stew" from white potatos, green beans, yellow corn, stewed tomatoes and spam, roast beef or any other meat of choice. And of course, the creole foods are easily prepared and stretch well with rice and natural thickeners. I can burst the bellies of my family of six on six dollars with leftovers.

Posted this before, but back on track with the original question:

Bug out - What conditions?

You may think you are living in a relatively safe area, but problems can arise anywhere that might require you to leave your home for a week or longer. Some of the people from New Orleans are still not returned. I read recently of a factory fire which cause a wide evacuation. And then there are train derailments, truck wrecks, and isn't there a major power outage still going on in the Pacific Northwest? Gone are the days (we hope) where we have to be so mindful about "duck and cover", and living too near a Stratigic Air Command base. I used to live near the missile silos themselves, and again at the end of the runway of a SAC base. But trucks quietly roll down our nation's highways every day carrying some mighty nasty stuff. Yeah, nerve agents and nukes are being disposed of, but they have to get them to the facilities still.

A "chicken little" mentality is just as bad as a "what, me worry?" outlook. The first prevents you from enjoying what life and society has to offer, the second pretty much gurantees you will be a "ward of the state" if you do make it through a disaster. I don't want to be herded into a sports arena for my own good to await the benevolence of the powers that be.

Codger
 
Codger_64 said:
I don't want to be herded into a sports arena for my own good to await the benevolence of the powers that be.Codger
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Exactly.

Indulge me for a minute....

In a worst-case (I HAVE to get my family out of town) / best-case ( I have an established, stocked, quiet little cabin to go to) scenario, of course I'm going to bug out, as soon as we decide it's more dangerous to stay.

Unfortunately, I don't yet own a back-country hideaway. It would have to be real REAL bad to make me take up the woman and kids and run, frankly. So for now, our "retreat" happens to be in town. We just signed the paperwork on a house that's above the flood plain, in a safe neighborhood, and has a full basement and tons of closets.

Sounds like bubbacatfish knows what I mean.

We also keep our camping gear ready to go. No reason not to, after all. And it's no big deal to grab a couple flats of bottled water and canned goods to throw in the trunk with the tents and backpacks.

Codger_64 said:
I don't normally eat generic brand foods, but you can find store brands of canned goods like "Cost-Cutter", etc. on sale for 4/$1.
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Well, yeah... maybe. We stock up on the same stuff we usually eat. We don't turn our nose up at generic labels, but we don't just buy whatever's cheapest, either.

I got two little girls and a woman to deal with, man :D In a tough situation, I do NOT wanna hear 'em bitchin' that the food sucks!
 
I'm ready if I'm at work - I'll just have to knock the guy out who drives the Ford F-350 crew cab 4x4 packed to the roof with survival gear :D .

Seriously though, There isn't much that could happen that would make me leave home. I live right between the port of Los Angeles and LAX and only ~16 miles from downtown LA (Three of the most probable terrorist targets in CA). Even if I knew that dirty bombs were going to be set off in all three places in half an hour, I'd stay put. Dirty bombs are more weapons of mass "disruption" than "destruction" anyway.

Chemical or bio attack by a swarm of Osama's cropdusters? I still wouldn't leave without being forced to at gunpoint. Where would I take my family to? Somewhere via a Southern CA freeway? I can hardly get up to 25 miles an hour on a NORMAL day on some of them, so what will they be like during an emergency situation? Conditions would quickly deteriorate to look like a scene out of Mad Max around here. I'm sure everyone remembers the Rodney King riots. No thanks, I'll take my chances at the pad.

Not much other than an H-bomb or serious earthquake is likely to be much of a widespread deal (And I'd STILL do my best to stay put even if it came to those). Why take chances with a mob of desperate people? Many will be out to take your stuff (And maybe kill you in the process) out on the road. Why not just wait for them to come to you at home in the castle where you can have a big pile of ammo and a six pack next to the couch?

The above said, I still have an emergency bag ready to go in the unlikely event that it's ever needed...
 
Vee3 said:
Not much other than an H-bomb or serious earthquake is likely to be much of a widespread deal (And I'd STILL do my best to stay put even if it came to those). Why take chances with a mob of desperate people?
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I heard that. For the really paranoid, you've got to admit it's easier to defend a home or basement than to fight off marauding idiots in the open.

Tip from Captain Obvious: the perfectly-outfitted BOB is every bit as useful and worthwhile in your backyard as it is in the deepest boonies.
 
Vee3 said:
Chemical or bio attack by a swarm of Osama's cropdusters? I still wouldn't leave without being forced to at gunpoint. Where would I take my family to? Somewhere via a Southern CA freeway? I can hardly get up to 25 miles an hour on a NORMAL day on some of them, so what will they be like during an emergency situation? Conditions would quickly deteriorate to look like a scene out of Mad Max around here. I'm sure everyone remembers the Rodney King riots. No thanks, I'll take my chances at the pad.
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Hey Vee, I know exactly what you mean. I'm stuck in the over-populated mess that is Silicon Valley. If an "event" ever did occur here, there would simply be no where to go, unless I got lucky and (1) met a helicopter pilot who (2) had a helicopter ready to go and (3) was willing to take me and my family to safety.

Anyway, I've always thought of a bug-out situation around here as being a kind of a numbers game. By that, I mean I need to have enough so that I can outlast everyone else. Once the area has emptied out (because people have left or, to put it coldly, have died), then we can try to evacuate. Fortunately, I can't think of a truly likely "run for your life" scenario (such as a class 5 hurricane bearing down on my city) that might make we want to ignore my plans and bolt out of here.

Once I get out of town, there's a couple of places I can take the family for shelter. But it's that first 150 miles that's a killer.
 
In the desert city in which I live, a complete bugout would be mandated by any disaster of any kind, natural or man-made, that stopped the water pumps for a few days. Sure, there might be some kind of relief operation that would deliver minimal drinking water a while after the disaser--but, then again, there might not. That would be my most-likely "bugout required" scenario, and could take many forms.

The other would be any kind of disaster that led to enough of a social breakdown that the choice would be between living in the midst of hundreds of thousands of starving, desperate people in a paved-over city which is incapable of providing for its residents' food and water needs, on the one hand, and trying to get to a place where the food-to-consumers ratio was higher.

Of course, one key to any bugout is to figure out that it's the thing to do, and to do it, before everybody else has the same idea. I've often wondered if I'd have read the signs in time and bugged out in time had I been a Jewish man in what became Nazi-dominated Europe--or a Tutsi or moderate Hutu in pre-April-1994 Rwanda.
 
I will stay home unless my home is destroyed. No bug out. My house is my bug out. The only disaster would be nuclear or significant biological that would force leaving. I would stay to help as best I could and maintain order.
 
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