I'd guess that the electronegativity has less of an effect than the orientation of the bonds due to the valence electrons, the size of the metal ions, and the kinetics of bond formation vs the equilibrium states of the different carbides.
Ion size seems to be the compelling factor within each shell category. Found a great paper on it for those that are interested:
http://www.tribology.fink.rs/journals/2010/2010-2/2.pdf
Page 15 sums it up reasonably simply.
-Sandow