Chicago Knife Auction Results

HI Coop,

Yes, the facts...a novel concept on most of the forums. :D

Hi STeven....very nice! Excellent retort! :D :D :D

I realized that my writing skills are no match for your absorbing and gripping reviews! So I will not venture over the fence where the "Big Dog" is lurking! :D

Shows are now...shows (Yes the ABS Expo is a show). With the possible exception of the AKI.

Some will sell out, some will do ok and some will sell none.
 
Another show of note this year was Solvang. There were so many variables, it was difficult to guess, before the show, how all of the changes (in the show's new style, in the economy, etc) would play out.

Martin and I talked at Solvang, and we both concluded that the show went really well. It was a star in what otherwise, this year, was an overall lackluster performance (which, if fact, is being rather kind) of other shows. I think Dave Harvey's decision on Solvang's new style may have saved it, ie, an art knife invitational format, in the AKI style, but in the off-year.

Perhaps Boston will confirm the art knife invitational format is a good vehicle for today's higher-end collector, from coast-to-coast. Here's hoping that's the case.

Best,

Bob Betzner
 
no matter how financially insulated anyone might feel, the financial catastrophe which has been unfolding over the past couple of years, (or more, depending on how you look at these things) is DEFINITELY going to affect everybody in significant ways moving forward. Even if it doesn't mean going broke, it will mean that the variety we've come to take for granted will become increasingly limited.

I feel that we are, (or going to be) witnessing the end of a 'golden age' in custom knives, but instead of focusing on the negative, I prefer to envision the rebirth that will come forth. Things are definitely going to change, in my opinion, and those who make their living in cutlery will have to carefully consider how they will move forward in an environment where prices drop and costs escalate, and that will require creativity. This thread should be a sober reminder that this change is occurring RIGHT NOW.

The great thing about knives is that the object is so intrinsic to humanity that it will always be there for us, no matter the hoopla going on around us. Those of us who rely on the knife as a spiritual center or as a tool, or as a livelihood will always have something available and will make do with less choice.

Sorry if this sounds pessimistic, I don't really intend that. I'm seeing writing on the wall, and what I'm reading is telling me that change is in the wind. Better get a handle on our sails before we get blown away.
 
IMO, these shows are pretty much all in the wrong places.

High end custom knives are nothing but luxuries, pure and simple.

Folks without jobs and in foreclosure cannot afford luxuries. Those who are afraid of being without jobs or in foreclosure will not spend money on luxuries. That covers pretty much 90% of folks these days except Wall Street bankers/fund managers/etc., and federal government workers.

Most of the folks who have disposable income these days and the security to spend it on luxuries like this are either on Wall Street or in Washington. These shows should either be in NYC or in DC. And that includes the Blade Show. It is great for restaurants and hotels in northwest Atlanta. Not sure it does much to attract knife buyers.

JMHO.
 
The Virginian said:
IMO, these shows are pretty much all in the wrong places.

High end custom knives are nothing but luxuries, pure and simple.

Folks without jobs and in foreclosure cannot afford luxuries. Those who are afraid of being without jobs or in foreclosure will not spend money on luxuries. That covers pretty much 90% of folks these days except Wall Street bankers/fund managers/etc., and federal government workers.

Most of the folks who have disposable income these days and the security to spend it on luxuries like this are either on Wall Street or in Washington. These shows should either be in NYC or in DC. And that includes the Blade Show. It is great for restaurants and hotels in northwest Atlanta. Not sure it does much to attract knife buyers.

JMHO.
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I must disagree. NYC is rapidly becoming an undesirable place to have a knife show because the city fathers have made it abundantly clear that knives and knife people are not welcome. It remains to be seen how the two shows do now that they are far away from the bright lights of Broadway. Atlanta works well in part because outside of New York and maybe LA, it is about the easiest place in the US to get to from pretty much anywhere in the world and perhaps the easiest place to get in and out of from anywhere in North America. The only other burgs in the country that combine anything remotely resembling that kind of accessibility with reasonable pricing (especially compared to NYC) are Las Vegas, Orlando and maybe Dallas. The one big advantage that Atlanta has over Orlando and Las Vegas may be that it is a shorter drive for the potential customers other than those who live in California.;) Obviously, Vegas and Mouseville have a HUGE advantage in the number of available hotel rooms and convention space. While the Galleria's location Cobb county may not be as ideally sited as say the World Congress Center or some of the other facilities in town, you can't beat the prices if you chose to stay somewhere other than the main hotel. It's disadvantage is that it is nowhere near any of the MARTA lines.
 
Hi Virginian,

Most of the folks who have disposable income these days and the security to spend it on luxuries like this are either on Wall Street or in Washington. These shows should either be in NYC or in DC. And that includes the Blade Show. It is great for restaurants and hotels in northwest Atlanta. Not sure it does much to attract knife buyers.
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Im guessing you missed the news where the Manhattan DA went and confiscated knives from several different merchants in NYC. Steve D'Lack was smart enough to get the New York Custom Knife show out of Manhattan.

So go ahead and strike NYC off your short list. As well NY, because of their ridiculous tax laws...are loosing (at a rapid rate) those people with a lot of disposable income.

DC...probably not...maybe Virginia!

The dynamics of a show location go way beyond how many people with disposable income are within a certain radius from the show.

Too many shows, the Internet and the economy (read cost of travel and associated hassles regarding knives and the Airlines) have had the most impact on the amount of people attending shows.
 
I agree that that there are too many shows. As a maker I can only do so many shows and make so many knives. The internet has changed the knife game. Collectors shop for knives like they do cars. Then can click on multiple websites and buy the knife they want at the price they want. If you have been to the blade show a few times you know how it works and the novelty wears off. To quote Les " The blade show is no longer a knife show, it's an event". People go to hang out and see lots of knives but not all go with the intent of buying knives. Instead of spending the money on a hotel, airfare ect the collector can stay home and purchase another knife.

I have taken a Darwinian approach to my knife making, Adapt or die. So far it's working.
 
Chuck Gedraitis Knives said:
I agree that that there are too many shows. As a maker I can only do so many shows and make so many knives. The internet has changed the knife game. Collectors shop for knives like they do cars. Then can click on multiple websites and buy the knife they want at the price they want. If you have been to the blade show a few times you know how it works and the novelty wears off. To quote Les " The blade show is no longer a knife show, it's an event". People go to hang out and see lots of knives but not all go with the intent of buying knives. Instead of spending the money on a hotel, airfare ect the collector can stay home and purchase another knife.

I have taken a Darwinian approach to my knife making, Adapt or die. So far it's working.
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i agree.

the Pew Report a couple of years ago ID'ed the new trends. I read it but here is a bit of my reasoning for sales in a niche market.

1. Internet sales makes a brick and mortar store almost worthless for cheap priced high grade products.

2. Internet ( 2.0 ) is across town, across the room, across the world. no limits to distance. or lets say distance is no problem.

3. Delivery is VIA DHL, FedEx, UPS, USPS and the dozen others out there. the Boeing 747 ( airplanes 2.0 ) and the Boeing 777 made anywhere in the world only 24 hours away. Distance is reduced to time and not miles. the next generation ( 3.0 ) will be even more efficient for speed and savings.

4. Internet sales at this time means no sales tax. this savings makes up for the shipping that must be paid.

brick and mortar will keep the toilet paper, milk, butter and eggs off the net.

low cost products will still be brick and mortar as they can not pay the shipping charges.

I just read on the news that Chattanooga, TN was getting a Internet speed of 1 G per second. Internet ( 3.0 ). so things are changing.

I have heard if you don't change with the times you will fall by the wayside as the world rushes by.
 
A lot of prestigious names in that list, and a lot of very knowledgable purveyors...the knives were there.....the public wasnt
A very well attended show in Vegas the week before, the Guild show the weekend after (think thats right) and a lot of people who told me they wouldnt go into downtown Chicago for anything...........I heard it from a number of people, especially those that live near there, they preferred the first venue, near the race track, much more.
 
The reduced attendance at recent shows can really create great purchasing opportunities for those collectors who do show up. :thumbup:
 
One of the real problems today is, in fact, trying to figure out which are "great purchasing opportunities", or really nice knives that are about ready to drop again in price.

In my view, for the collector that has some interest in buying knives that hold value, trying to determine which are the "right" knives, in this economic environment, can be a difficult proposition and may well be keeping some buyers away from shows. The "uncertainty" factor.

Bob
 
These "drops" in price could well be more of a "correction," akin to what the real estate market has experienced. I said for years that all the real estate flippers were eventually going to crash the real estate market, because EVENTUALLY, someone has to actually LIVE in the house that went from $100k to $350k and pay a mortgage and taxes on it. Well ... And no, I'm not claiming to be some kind of expert; it's plain common sense.

I'm seeing a similar trend in knives. Heck, just read all the board posts by members talking about how much money they made by flipping a knife they bought moments earlier, likely to someone who is ALSO going to flip it for yet more profit. Are they knives to collect, or are they some kind of commodity or bond? Auction prices and reports of slow sales at shows are -- at least to me -- giving a hint to something. Not as many people have the money to pay big bucks for numerous knives over and over. Fewer people to "flip" to. Prices go down. You know what happens to "bubbles."

Sorry if I offend anyone (I'm really not intending to), but eventually, just as greed gets the better of an individual, it gets the better of an industry that has become motivated by it.
 
BowieBooster said:
These "drops" in price could well be more of a "correction," akin to what the real estate market has experienced. I said for years that all the real estate flippers were eventually going to crash the real estate market, because EVENTUALLY, someone has to actually LIVE in the house that went from $100k to $350k and pay a mortgage and taxes on it. Well ... And no, I'm not claiming to be some kind of expert; it's plain common sense.

I'm seeing a similar trend in knives. Heck, just read all the board posts by members talking about how much money they made by flipping a knife they bought moments earlier, likely to someone who is ALSO going to flip it for yet more profit. Are they knives to collect, or are they some kind of commodity or bond? Auction prices and reports of slow sales at shows are -- at least to me -- giving a hint to something. Not as many people have the money to pay big bucks for numerous knives over and over. Fewer people to "flip" to. Prices go down. You know what happens to "bubbles."

Sorry if I offend anyone (I'm really not intending to), but eventually, just as greed gets the better of an individual, it gets the better of an industry that has become motivated by it.
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Has nothing to do with greed. There is a bit of greed everywhere in the world, not just in knife collecting. It's all about economics, period. Fewer dollars chasing more goods makes prices go down. Fewer people willing to spend, or without the ability to spend, is an economic issue, not a knife issue. Simple as that.
 
Greed has been running the show for a long time, and it's what's got us into this mess, (I mean that generally).

Greed is a rottenness that eats at the core of all good things, and Good People is the only preservative that can keep the rottenness at bay.

Fortunately there are many Good People in custom knives.
 
3_hard_boiled_eggs said:
I have heard if you don't change with the times you will fall by the wayside as the world rushes by.
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I find this fascinating coming from you!
Marketing blades made in one of the oldest of school ways, using your knowledge of changing technology to do so. I will definitely follow your posts even more closely from now on:thumbup::cool:
 
betzner said:
One of the real problems today is, in fact, trying to figure out which are "great purchasing opportunities", or really nice knives that are about ready to drop again in price.

In my view, for the collector that has some interest in buying knives that hold value, trying to determine which are the "right" knives, in this economic environment, can be a difficult proposition and may well be keeping some buyers away from shows. The "uncertainty" factor.

Bob
Click to expand...

I'm taking a slightly more positive view. I believe it's a good time to be a custom knife collector if your disposal income hasn't been hit too hard and
you realize the economy will most likely turn around.
When things are robust, the best knives are harder to get as are the bargins. ;) :)
 
TennKnifeman said:
The pure fact of life is if a knife does not meet reserve in an active open marketplace--then the reserve was too high. This comes usually when collectors pay too much to start with or get too optimistic about their expected return.
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Isn't the answer in the link/data DDD posted?
Can't you get an "avg asked cost to realized cost ratio"
For example, let's take the top dog in the auction:
Lot# 16
High Bid: $16,500.00
SOLD
Ron Lake
A very special folder recently made. Double logo. G10 interframe with 15 gold tubes.
OAL = 6-1/2"; BL = 2-3/4"
EST $18,000 - $24,000====>
16500/24000=.6875

and 49/100 (I may have counted wrong...no downloadable .csv file :( ) lots SOLD

If this is supposed to be some signal of the bottom of the Great Custom Knife Recession
Trent don't buy it
I still see A LOT of $$$$$$$$$$
(somebody add up the total $$ sold outta 100 lots for me)
The state of the custom knife market is (semi?) strrooongggg...imho
Unless of course, we can compare these auction results with past ones, right?


Thanks for DDD for the link:thumbup:
Link of the Year:thumbup:
Can I look at past proxibid.com auctions?
How often does proxybid.com do these custom knife auctions?
Then maybe I could track the data with the consumer confidence index or something like that...hehehhehe
Is there a way to see how many bidders we're online?
Sorry...I'm not too familiar with proxybid.com
What is proxybid.com's cut of the action?

The descriptions are kind of weak
If I'm gonna pay $15,000K plus===>
I want more details than:
Magnificent fixed blade.


I found it interesting to see the top dollar knives
Isn't that sort of a snap shot as to what custom knife buyers want? As in the hot trends? As Les always says, "know your postion in the market"?
Is this the future of knife making?
Shouldn't fellow knife makers take note?
Get their finger on the pulse of the their target market and all that good stuff?
Magnificent fixed blade
71.jpg.jpg

On a side note
How come a knife with an inverted tang stamp sold for 15 large??;):eek:
16.jpg


On the flip side
How come Warren Thomas only got $250 for this knife?
http://www.proxibid.com/asp/LotDetail.asp?ahid=1732&aid=28397&lid=7872388#topoflot
What is his position in the market? Why is his knife all unclean and dusty? :confused:
 
Kevin Jones said:
I'm taking a slightly more positive view. I believe it's a good time to be a custom knife collector if your disposal income hasn't been hit too hard and
you realize the economy will most likely turn around.
When things are robust, the best knives are harder to get as are the bargins. ;) :)
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Kevin-

You know me - sometimes I pound this subject to death, haha.

I also think it is important to keep a positive attitude. I suppose my main purpose here was to create the contra arguments. I agree, we need to talk up the positives, too! Just adding my own "balance", I suppose.

Bob
 
Why do you think the economy will "most likely turn around?" The last time we came back from a rescession (which was nowhere NEAR as bad as this, I might add), we still had something of an industrial base left, and millions of our jobs hadn't been "outsourced" overseas yet. Where do you see the foundation upon which this recovery will be built? What will people be manufacturing here in newly-created jobs to sell abroad to bring foreign currency into our economy, and to rebuild our domestic market? That assumes 2 things: jobs and manufacturing. We have neither. Most of our manufacturing infrastructure is gone. Who's gonna pay to rebuild it? Will anyone even bother TRYING when Chinese labor is so much cheaper? Construction isn't going to kick start it if people don't have incomes to pay mortgages with.

This is a new animal, and NOBODY has the answers yet. It's going to take a lot ingenuity and a bit of luck to bring prosperity back in this glorified barter economy we've had since NAFTA.
 
BowieBooster said:
Why do you think the economy will "most likely turn around?" The last time we came back from a rescession (which was nowhere NEAR as bad as this, I might add), we still had something of an industrial base left, and millions of our jobs hadn't been "outsourced" overseas yet. Where do you see the foundation upon which this recovery will be built? What will people be manufacturing here in newly-created jobs to sell abroad to bring foreign currency into our economy, and to rebuild our domestic market? That assumes 2 things: jobs and manufacturing. We have neither. Most of our manufacturing infrastructure is gone. Who's gonna pay to rebuild it? Will anyone even bother TRYING when Chinese labor is so much cheaper? Construction isn't going to kick start it if people don't have incomes to pay mortgages with.

This is a new animal, and NOBODY has the answers yet. It's going to take a lot ingenuity and a bit of luck to bring prosperity back in this glorified barter economy we've had since NAFTA.
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I'm not sure who you were addressing this comment to, because I didn't go back and read every post. But I know it sure wasn't me. Agreed, it ain't gonna get much better anytime soon. Throw the models out the window.

Bob
 
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