Collectability - other issues

Joss

Joss

Joined
Nov 20, 2001
Messages
7,353
Hi,

A couple threads here have dealt with makers, and what makes a maker succesful / collectable. What about other issues? What about:

- Style: hunter, bowie, dagger, sword, fighter, etc...
- Materials: stainless vs. carbon steel, damascus, ivory, MOP, wood, bone, micarta, etc...
- Embellishments: file work, engraving, carving, scrimshaws, etc...
- Fabrication method: forged vs. stock removal.

What do people think? What are the elements of those that will best contribtue to high collectability and the highest value increase (in %) over time?

Thanks,

JD
 
Joss,

You have hit on some of the criteria.

Now all that has to be done is figure out which criteria to apply to which maker.

Joss, you have moved into advanced knife collecting where homework is a must.

You are also touching on investment strategies.

This should be a great thread. I can't wait to read the variety of answers.

Did you see my "homework" question in the custom knives and stocks: predicitions thread?

Here it is again in case you missed it.

"Quick example: New maker A, is doing what many feel is exceptional work for the money. This maker's next project is going to feature either a Wharncliffe blade, Re-Curve blade or a Up-Swept semi-Persian (futuristic) type blade.

Which blade style should this maker choose and why?

Note the answer is not as simple as you would think. Other variables will affect this blade style.

Your answer will show you what market you like the best. This will also show you how you personally "Skew" the information you put into your knife buying "equation"."

No one answered this in the other thread, maybe they will answer it here.

Again, excellent thread Joss.
 
Well, I still don't think that knife collecting is a viable investment strategy, but we've talked about that before...

So yesterday I went through 5 or 6 Cutting Edge catalogues, and I tried to put my ideas in order.

It seems that classical shapes - basic hunters and bowies in particular - hold their own quite well, even if the prices remain reasonable (for a plain wood handle for example.) Damascus works well too.

Nearly all the knives from established makers, including from ABS MS, sell at some discount, unless they are one of the *very few* exceptional pieces/names. A few top names (Loveless, Moran, England, Scagel, etc...) sell for many $ thousands, but in the England case I am not sure if it's appreciation or just if the price maintains itself.

What was clear is that *radical* designs and embellishments are a risky propostion. There were a lot of engraved, wire inlayed, sculpted, or scrimshawed knives that seem to sell at a fraction of their replacement values. Some of those were of poor taste, based on my own judgement (Pugh knives with brass sculpted guards and butts), but some others were quite nice, if not top quality. I.e., it's better to stay simple & classic or pay for a top name artist when going for a sophisticated art piece. For me, this suggests that some of the flashiest ideas today (heat colored mosaic damascus, anodized Ti, etc) might not be in demand 10 years from now. A lot of work into a knife doesn't make it by itself a long term winner.

Some radical grinds looked very old fashion and steeply discounted, esp. the very wide Southwestern bowies, with a deep curved clip. That suggests that radical grinds that are very fashionable nowadays might not be a good long term proposal. I would stay away from the current most radical tactical designs for the long term, personally... But then I might well be wrong.

I *think* that the tactical trend is a dicey proposition for a variety of reasons. As I've said above, radical grinds are risky. Second, top-of-the-line materials have a small shelf life, and I am not sure that carbon fiber, G-10, S30V, or Ti will be all the rage 10 years from now. That seems esp. obvious from the steels. I think we can reasonably expect new blade materials every few years.

On the other hand, high quality natural materials can only become more expensive as time goes by, and I think there's a lot to be said for ivory, stag, MOP, etc. Not sure this applies to wood or not.

I *think* too that the handmade stock-removal non-unique piece is a risky proposition, based on the fact that the difference between hand-made and not becomes more and more difficult to establish. I think that there's definitely room for unique art pieces made via stock removal, though. This being said, Loveless is a glaring exception, so there might well be the next Loveless available right now - the question is who it is? The hand-forged piece in my opinion will always retain some of its uniqueness, and is worth a small premium.

I'd love to hear from others...

JD
 
Joss,

Question, would you buy a knife you didn't care for stictly for investment purpose?

Also, the next Loveless is already out there. He has been out there for 35 + years. His turn is coming.

Matter of fact when Lovless got so far behind 20 years ago. Loveless himself recomended this maker to his clients.

There is one of his knives in the current Cutting Edge.

Did you spot this makers work?

As for knives being viable investments. Have you identified what your ROI (return on investment) minimums are?

If not, how do you know if a knife is a viable investment or not.

Investing in anything is a completely different game than collecting.
 
Originally posted by Les Robertson
Question, would you buy a knife you didn't care for strictly for investment purpose?
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No - even with stock, I only buy index funds, not individual stocks.

Also, the next Loveless is already out there. He has been out there for 35 + years. His turn is coming. Matter of fact when Lovless got so far behind 20 years ago. Loveless himself recomended this maker to his clients. There is one of his knives in the current Cutting Edge. Did you spot this makers work?
Click to expand...

Ed Davidson. I would have guessed that, but with the info you provided, I'm pretty sure. But I am not sure he's the next Loveless - i.e., someone whose knives will appreciate to such an extent. Of course, the filiation in style is obvious.

As for knives being viable investments. Have you identified what your ROI (return on investment) minimums are? If not, how do you know if a knife is a viable investment or not.
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The ROI is only part of the picture. My minimum ROI requirements are not esp. high (however, knives would have to compete with stocks for my $$$), but I do require some liquidity in the market.

Investing in anything is a completely different game than collecting.
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Totally agree.
 
Originally posted by Les Robertson
Did you spot this makers work?
Click to expand...

Great thread! I'll comment more later.

I'm going to state Steve Johnson as that maker you're referring too. He can't be far behind... Same top quality and classic styling, with the integrity aspect that endures.

Coop

#### (Edit)

Anthony and I posted at the same time. How's that for a close guess?!
 
I am changing my mind.
I just looked in the cutting edge.
George Herron is who Les is referring to now that I think about it some more!

:D

There is a kickass Aida Big Bear too(the Loveless of Japan?)
 
Steve Johnson would have been my top choice but I couldn't find him in the latest CE. But it's totally possible I missed it.

JD
 
I haven't seen the latest cutting edge but my opinion is that it is George Herron also. He is the only guy I know of that makes a better loveless style knife that loveless and does it at less cost. George has an excellent reputation but I always wanted him to have more. He is a real gentleman.
jf
 
I finally found the Herron knife in the Cutting Edge (bottom left of page 42.) :D

JD
 
I would not buy knives I do not like and this would make me a collector, not an investor.

Materials will most definitely make a difference in the future value of a knife. A 10" bowie with damascus blade and stag handle will be worth more than the same knife in 1084 with a wood handle. I am not as convinced that the steel that is used will make that much difference other than in the case of damascus.

An investor must be able to recognize fads and avoid them. Knives that are hot today could be cold as liquid nitrogen in a few years.

Any of the three blade styles that Les mentioned would be usable on an investment grade knife. Before I would even think of making any recommendation I would have to know more about what kind of knife this was going to be. Is it going to be a folder or a fixed blade? Is it going to be a tactical, a gent's knife, a hunter, or maybe an art knife?

Even knowing this information I am afraid that my recommendation would be based on my own personal biases. I have not developed the skill that would allow me to look at only what is important in determining what will make this knife a good investment. My own personal preferences would over shadow my objectivity. Once again, that is what would make me a collector and not an investor.

Edited to add.

Joss, this is a great thread. It has made me think and that is all to rare with many of the topics lately. I learn a great deal from threads like this one. Les sometimes has the ability to make my brain hurt, but that is a good thing.:)
 
Now we need Les to come back and tell us who he was thinking of. In any case, according to cuttingedge.com, someone picked up the Herron knife.

I also would love to get back to the initial post and re-widen the question to all the non-name issues that might increase or decrease collectability: style, design, materials, method, etc...

JD
 
Which style to make?? Well, let's see. If I am going to predict which direction I want to go in my production, and if it matters to my being able to eat, I'd better be either a good guesser or gambler.

I assume Les would want the new maker to develop long-term staying power, not just a short sighted sales strategy. If only short term goals were considered, then go with making only whatever is hot right now. You will make sales, but you are bound to see them showing up on the resale market,
and probably at reduced prices, when that syle has saturated the market, or the next hot fad hits and the impulse collectors want to trade in. Hurts the value of your knives in the long run and they won't coame to you to buy the knife at the price you need to get.

Anyway, to get to Les' question-

The wharncliffe: Could this be a current fad? May not have holding power? Kind of ugly (my opinion, but I think others share my opinion!)So not as broad based customer appeal?

The recurve: Popular for quite a while now, semiproven style, and appeals to fairly broad market. Usable for practical folk and pleasant looking for style-concious collectors.

Futuristic persian: Limited customer base. Not for users, but may be able to get a little more money for "artsy" style blades. Fadish perhaps.

Whatever style I go with, I'd better use solid, proven classic materials in constuction. Not gaudy, fadish, or cheap (or overly expensive for the knife) components.

Result: If I am going to take this knifemaking for money thing seriosly, I'd better make ALL THREE. I will let the people tell me where to concentrate my efforts. Constantly re-evaluate (and talk to Les for advice of course!) Man, this "homework" thing is never over !
 
Well, thought I'd chime in, I really enjoy these threads. Not because I'm any kind of investor, the only hopes I have for anything I buy is that it retains its value (in as much as I retain it's condition) or doesn't depreciate that much. The enjoyment I get from having them and playing around with them is what I'm looking for.

I thought I'd give a whack at Les' question. If maker a was well received I think I'd look for the style that was most different from what he has become known for. Both to reach a diff't audience and to prove he's a versatile/talented maker. To me, if he's a new maker, he's got plenty of time to establish what his long term goals and strengths are, so he should really be doing a lot of different things to exercise his talents in a variety of ways. *shrug* but that's just my opinion and what the hell do I know. :)
 
Ok Guys,

The Herron is of course the answer. Notice it sold very quickly at $750. This is a knife that 4 years ago sold for $325. About 140% profit in 4 years not bad.

Now where are those guys Im butting heads with in the Custom knives and stocks Thread! :D

Now compare and contrast pro's and con's of collectability between the Herron Drop Point Hunter and the Loveless Drop Point Hunter. Materials and construction being the same (well not really, George's knives are much better in the fit and finish area).

Your "equation" should include things such as your Return On Investment (ROI), availablity, market dollars available* (BIG HINT), opportunity potential and of course the Time Value of Money.

Ok, next question.

In a down market like last year. Would the buying of more expensive knives
($,1500 and UP)be up or down and why?

In a continued down market such as this year would the buying of more expensive
($,1500 and UP) knives be up or down and why?

Taking your answers to the two parts to the previous question. What knives would you look at buying this year to sell next year for a profit?

Skyman,

You are definetly on the right path, well your on 3 or 4 of them. You have to decide on one path (or one knife).

As Mr. Miage says "Danielsan, walk on right side of road..ok, walk on left side of road..ok, but walk in middle of road...get squished like grape"!

Nybble,

You to have touched on an important issue. It is key for a makers continued improvement to show versatility in both designs and materials.

Now, back to the question...what knife does this maker produce next?
 
Mr. Miage had it wrong. What he meant to say was:

"Walk on right side of road, only be seen by conservatives, walk on left side, only be seen by liberals, but... walk in middle, ah.. be seen by (and have better chance of contact by) ALL"!
 
In years where the market is soft, or down, due to larger economic downturns I would predict that the buying of the more expensive knvies ($1,500+) would, if not increase, at least stay on par with previous stronger years. The kicker is though, the knives are likely to be in "stronger" hands [more immune from market fluctuations due to finances] meaning the odds of seeing them quickly in the secondary market will be on the decline. This phenom has been seen in the Class III firearms market for some time now.
 
Not sure Les... I would think that a down market is a down market, i.e., there's less money available for knives, period. What that means is that people interested in expensive art pieces would maybe wait, or buy less fancy, etc. That's for the first owner though.

On the pre-owned side, I think we would mostly see a slow down. People who paid dear money for something would just not be selling, knowing that they wouldn't recover their investment. People who would HAVE to sell probably would lose money (see the Steve Schwarzer folder on eBay right now - I'm not sure what it retails for, but I can't think the person is making a profit in this case.) So overall I would expect a slow down rather than depressed prices, with deeply discounted pieces once in a while. That's mostly valid for expensive pieces though. I'm not sure what would happen reg. cheaper pieces, esp. reasonably priced pieces from top makers with a long wait. E.g., Ed Caffrey's EBK that retails for $127.5 from his site, might be a easy to sell at a premium now that he's unavailable for 6 months.

JD
 
In years where the market is soft, or down, due to larger economic downturns I would predict that the buying of the more expensive knvies ($1,500+) would, if not increase, at least stay on par with previous stronger years. The kicker is though, the knives are likely to be in "stronger" hands [more immune from market fluctuations due to finances] meaning the odds of seeing them quickly in the secondary market will be on the decline. This phenom has been seen in the Class III firearms market for some time now.
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I would have to agree with that.
 
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