Concerned about Nukes

W

wade

Joined
Sep 22, 2005
Messages
493
Hi yall,
I havent been on here in a while but figured I would drop in and pop this one. I previously had a "bug out" plan. But I just moved to So Cal, right below LA and as bad as traffic is down here I quickly realized I am not going anywhere fast in a emergency. Now this nuke scare. So if there is a nuke attack what are your plans? My college has a fallout/blast shelter that is the only one I know of. I guess take my bug out bag and head for that. Any ideas? Roads will be frozen, and Im trapped in the ctiy, I grew up in the mountains and know I could survive there but the city is unfamiliar to me. What would you do? Or what are your plans for a nuke attack? How do we prepare ourselves for something like this?
 
#1 - Get outa LA. I did that back in 1954. And I am yet to regret it.

Civil defense info is available on the web, I don't recall the number for the NBC manual, but it is available at a few military surplus stores, and likely also on the web.

Nothing can protect you from a direct burst. IMHO, preparations for dealing with downrange fallout makes sense, and it isn't all that hard to do. You could buy some cheap simple NBC components, like the iodine tabs, a meter or patches, a decon kit, and of course the usual food and water. But as far as having to deal with four million panic stricken sheeple? Duck-and-cover might be as effective as anything else I might suggest.

Codger
 
dont worry so much about nukes from NK yet- whatever they set off was likely so big that they'd need the startship enetrprise to fly it anywhere....give them 3 to 8yrs and they may have somthing that a missile can carry. MAbye a little less for iran?
I'd be more worried about a terrorist dirty bomb- cheep and effective and low tec.
 
I live up north of you in the San Jose area. I'm jammed between the southern tip of the bay and the coastal mountains here. Surrounded by millions of people. Only 3 directions out (if I went by land) and one of those would arguably be unavailable in an "event" since going north means getting through San Francisco and then taking the Golden Gate. I have no expectation that that bridge would still be open/standing if things got so bad that I wanted to bug out.

Long and short of it is, if anything from a nuke to a major earthquake to a pandemic hits here, I'm stuck and good. The only answer to this problem is to leave the area before bad things happen.

So far I have not been able to convince my wife that it's time to leave. The conversation comes up once a week or so. She thinks I'm paranoid. Fortunately for everyone concerned, she's more right than I am. Still, if I was you, I'd be looking for ways to move out of the LA area BEFORE you settle down with a family. That was my big mistake, not insisting on a move before we started having kids.

My only viable alternative, and it is a poor one, is to prepare as much as I can for bad things to happen, and then hope it's all a waste of time and money.
 
Saw an interesting episode of "The Unit" last night where a terrorist built a fertilizer truck bomb in an attempt to blow up a train load of spent nuclear fuel near San Diego. I think stunts like that are more likely than any foreign country lobbing ICBMs at us. I think the first survival strategy, as others have said, is to get out of Dodge before the SHTF. However, that doesn't necessarily make anyone safe from wind-blown contamination.
 
Couple of things.

If you haven't, read this: a great essay by a legendary risk analyst. Pretty entertaining, too.

A "nuclear attack" is something ingrained in the minds of a lot of people over 30 years old, and it's perceived as something raining in from a large ballistic vehicle (that's our collective perception of the old Cold War Going Hot scenario). I'm going to safely bet those days are pretty much over. There aren't many countries capable of striking even the edges of the US with a powerful enough weapon, and the few that are left presently have no strategic interest in pissing off a major economic partner like us.

A dirty bomb scenario is however more likely. Of course, there's astonishingly little practical devestation and even contamination with a dirty bomb... it's a terror weapon, not a tactical one. The reality of a dirty bomb is that it will do more damage through confusion and panic than radiation or direct explosion... and of those last two, the amount of damage caused by the detonation of the bomb itself will likely be more than the radiation released. It will depend on wind speed, but even that will be relatively contained to within a block or two.

In the LA area, you're way at more risk from an earthquake fatality than a nuclear threat. If you've adequately and reasonably prepared for an earthquake scenario, you're (a) already prepared for a nuclear scenario, and (b) now free to worry about a nuclear risk... but I'd put this one way way down on the list of things to worry about.

If, however, you're posting from South Korea or Japan... well, you might disregard my comments in that case.
 
I agree with Watchful’s two points that a) we are unlikely to be struck by a nuclear ICBM given the current geostrategic balance of power and b) dirty bombs have limited efficacy in the amount of actual damage they can do although obviously the fear and terror they create can be highly disruptive. (Chemical and biological weapons, while more effective than dirty bombs, also have limited tactical value. That’s why militaries tried them out during the first half of the last century and didn’t continue to utilize them in their arsenals.)

However, there are scenarios of dirty bombs that would be extremely devastating. Classically conceived, the dirty bomb is some (relatively small) amount of radioactive material dispersed by the action of a conventional explosive. Not a big deal unless it happens on your block or down the street from you. And even then, maybe you’ll get cancer a little sooner than you otherwise would.

But dirty bombs come in many shapes and sizes. If a terrorist used a conventional explosive to disperse the radioactive material from a nuclear power plant or the deadly chemicals of a industrial waste reprocessing facility – well, you’ve got a situation that could take out many tens of thousands of people in an urban environment.

That being said, I don’t think your average terrorist is currently planning any attacks on that scale (I won’t go into all the reasons why since there are many). What is far more likely is a backpack bomb on a commuter train. I ride the NYC subway every single day. Am I worried? No, because although I believe a subway bomb attack is likely, there are four and a half million other people riding the subway too. If a subway bomb killed 100 people – what’s the likelihood that I’m actually going to be one of those 100 out of 4.5 million people? Not too darn likely.

The simple fact of life is that you are unlikely going to be a direct victim of a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t mean you aren’t likely to be impacted by a terrorist attack. We live in a global, interconnected world. Several times terrorists have mounted attacks against Saudi oil facilities in the last couple of years. Eventually, they may prove successful. The terrorist attack you need to prepare for is the one that’s going to drive oil to several hundred dollars a barrel after Abqaiq has been taken out. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4747488.stm

Imagine what your city and neighborhood is going to be like when a barrel of oil is $300-$500 – that’s the scenario you need to plan for.

I apologize if this is somewhat off-topic in terms of the original posting - my basic point is don't be concerned about nukes from "evil-doers". Worry about the fact that you live in a highly industrialized society that depends on an uninterrupted flow of petroleum the way you depend on an uninterrupted flow of air as you breathe. A terrorist attack in the middle of the Arabian desert could effect you far more than one in your own backyard.
 
akennedy73 said:
I apologize if this is somewhat off-topic in terms of the original posting - my basic point is don't be concerned about nukes from "evil-doers". Worry about the fact that you live in a highly industrialized society that depends on an uninterrupted flow of petroleum the way you depend on an uninterrupted flow of air as you breathe. A terrorist attack in the middle of the Arabian desert could effect you far more than one in your own backyard.
Click to expand...
Very good essay by Akennedy73.

And I don't think you're off-topic at all--I think you've captured an element I completely missed: it may not be the attack, but the results.

That's also true for non-nuclear attacks, other disasters, and even bad weather. It's vital to plan not for the immediate response, but the after-effects. As we know, the law of unintended consequences reigns supreme in survival situations.

Well done.
 
If you're in SoCal, you're way more at risk for an earthquake than for a nuclear event.

As said above, prepare for the earthquake, and you're pretty well prepared for the nuclear event.

Choose your anxieties wisely!
 
Frankly, if you live in any major urban area in CA, the big thing to worry about is water. San Francisco, Oakland and LA all get their drinking water by piping water very long distances. This supply line is quite fragile in that it can be damaged by either natural disaster (both earthquakes and a broken levee system can harm the aquaducts) or deliberate human attack (terrorist activity).

In fact, as far as I know, the only major city in CA that gets its water locally is San Jose, which gets all its water from resevoirs in the hills around the city.

Bottom line is, the Red Cross ain't kidding when they tell you to have 4-6 weeks of water on hand for everyone in your household.
 
Watchful, that is a great essay on risk analysis by Gavin DeBecker. And there's a link to another great essay by him on Media Fear Tactics.
 
Coldwood said:
Watchful, that is a great essay on risk analysis by Gavin DeBecker. And there's a link to another great essay by him on Media Fear Tactics.
Click to expand...

That "media fear tactics" essay is hysterically funny and spot on. But it's pretty close to one of the last chapter of his Gift of Fear book, but this one had a few more good one-liners.
 
First, to believe what an enemy lets you see, is a fatal mistake.

Second, NK has announced that within a week, either they will be defeated, or Washington DC and NY city will be. This could be taken several ways, but to underestimate them would be a dire mistake on our part.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Also, look to a variety of news medias, instead of relying solely on the mainstream media here.
 
Not that i know much about what to do in case of a nuke. But here is my take on it. First of i live in Los Angeles and if we get hit close to where i live. Im going to bend over and kiss my @#$ good by. There is only one way to prepare for it......... dont be there. In case if im not very close to the blast. Im getting as much water and food i can into the house and sit tight. Dont let people know you there. Wait untill you are as sure as you can be for the fall out to pass. Find what ever runs and go in the apposite direction of the blast. The most important thing is common sence. About how to survive while moving and everything else is a diffrent topic.
its never a funny thing when some fools get a nuke to play with. If someone things NK is all talk well China listens to them and they are worried. That alone must says something. Even China wants NK to stop playing with nukes. Every one talk and plays the game but no one wants to die. BUT with NK and Iran is a diffrent story they do have some thing to prove and they dont care what it takes. For me Earthquake is higher up on my list to be ready for anyway.
Just my one cent worth.

Sasha
 
Click on "What To Do If A Nuclear Blast Is Imminent" and check out the FAQs at the bottom of the page.

http://www.ki4u.com/

Not endorsing this site or information, just passing along as I found it interesting.
 
I would not want to live in any big American city in the event a nuclear detonation on America soil.
We probably have more to fear from our fellow Americans though than the actual 'nuke'.

Think several million hysterical people hell bent on not getting turned into dust. Think about one detonation then the rumors that will cause further panic , think about the multitude of welfare mentality people and thier screaming , hungry and scared children , think about widespread looting and nowhere near enough cops NG to even attempt to handle that situation.
Bad case scenario I know but prepare for the worst , pray for the best.

Hopefully none of us will ever experience this but it is going to be an interesting future.

Live in a big city and know you cannot get out ? Then hole up in your apartment/house/condo.
Buy a personal weapon and learn how to use it well , very well (as well as all the necessary do-dads and ammo you will need). Put back bottled water and easy to prepare food , extra 'tough' clothes like jeans etc and good walking/hiking shoes.
An Atlas or detailed map of your area so you know alternative routes of escape.
 
This is a problem I have pondered at length in the past. I assume the CNN would broadcast the source of the blast in short order. This would be all the info required to put in motion the only good solution. I would leap into the air and fly up to the stratosphere (less parasitic drag), accelerate to appx. 300,000,000 meters per second and put some miles on my cape, as it were. Then I would go back "ground zero' and turn off the switching mechanism. If no switch were present i'd swallow the whole mess and take some indigestion for the team!;)
 
A good essay on risk assessment. But now Skippy is a problem. I have noticed her grinning lately, and checking the old pouch. Well, I've just got to tie me kangaroo down sport, tie me kangaroo down!

Codger

PS- back to the topic, basic preparedness fits the bill for all of the mentioned scenarios. Assess your risks, reduce the ones you can, prepare emergency supplies, be prepared to sit out the situation or relocate, as the crisis demands. Katrina gives some good examples of what is needed, what to do and what not to do. Post-crisis, a lot of people did what I consider to be a smart thing and did not return to the gulf. That is exactly what I did after being hit by two hurricanes.
 
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