Current makers - prices up or down?

Hi Kevin,

I for one was not trying to give the illusion that 50 or 60 makers at Major show have people in the queue waiting to buy knives from original purchases. First, define major show. Many consider the Knifemakers Guild Show to be a "Major" show. This has not been a major show for 5 years. Where as if you are a forged blade collector the Arkansas Custom Knife Show would be a "Major" show.

Arbitrage sales are based on several factors. Simply having a knife from one of the "makers" is not enough to have a "bag full of money" waiting for you after you purchase it. The fact that these knives were available after 3PM is your first indicator that these were not the knives to buy for quick resale.

I agree with you that custom knives should hold their value and/or go up in value. But as the makers and other collectors have pointed out numerous times that this will never happen.
 
WoodWorkGhost said:
Hi Kevin,

I for one was not trying to give the illusion that 50 or 60 makers at Major show have people in the queue waiting to buy knives from original purchases. First, define major show. Many consider the Knifemakers Guild Show to be a "Major" show. This has not been a major show for 5 years. Where as if you are a forged blade collector the Arkansas Custom Knife Show would be a "Major" show.

Arbitrage sales are based on several factors. Simply having a knife from one of the "makers" is not enough to have a "bag full of money" waiting for you after you purchase it. The fact that these knives were available after 3PM is your first indicator that these were not the knives to buy for quick resale.
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I was more addressing the group in that it seems to me the tone of this thread was leaning towards that illusion of 50 to 60 makers.
The only point I'm trying to get across is that the makers that consistently sell out at show opening and have collectors immediately re-selling at a profit is a shorter list rather than a long list in my opinion.

Good point regarding "Major" show, as there could be a good argument that only Blade is a Major and the rest are regional. Many ways to look at that. I consider, Blade, Reno, Arkansas, Las Vegas, New York, Chicago majors. But what do I know? :confused:

"The fact that these knives were available after 3PM is your first indicator that these were not the knives to buy for quick resale"
Also a good point, however I just sold the bowie in question at a very nice profit last week. :)
 
Kevin Jones said:
Good point regarding "Major" show, as there could be a good argument that only Blade is a Major and the rest are regional. Many ways to look at that. I consider, Blade, Reno, Arkansas, Las Vegas, New York, Chicago majors. But what do I know? :confused:
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I would not call Chicago or Las Vegas major shows. Las Vegas ONCE was, and Chicago could be, but right now, neither are. The spring New York show is a biggie, the fall one was AMAZING at one time, but very much less now.

You failed to mention the Plaza Show and Solvang, both in California. ANY show where you have 5 makers or more holding lotteries for their wares COULD be a major show. I think that Plaza is developing into one.

My question, Kevin, is have you done as WWG, and found some emerging makers at the right time?

Got to John Young and Mike Lovett before the "crowds", commissioned some pieces, and scored exceptional work, at exceptional prices. Only expect to be in this position a few more times before I die, but it is very cool to take delivery of a piece, and be able to turn it for 50% or more, when you get it, if you wish to do so. Have done this exactly twice, but USUALLY realize 30% or more on major purchases/sales.

I stand by my list, because in the last year, have either been in a position to realize a quick turn, have done so, or seen it done, with those makers.

Part of being an accomplished collector is knowing who to sell your stuff to, when you want to, and who will take it!

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Kohai999 said:
I would not call Chicago or Las Vegas major shows. Las Vegas ONCE was, and Chicago could be, but right now, neither are. The spring New York show is a biggie, the fall one was AMAZING at one time, but very much less now.

You failed to mention the Plaza Show and Solvang, both in California. ANY show where you have 5 makers or more holding lotteries for their wares COULD be a major show. I think that Plaza is developing into one. I think WWG made a very good point in that it's subjective as to the collector's interest which shows he considers major. A forged knife collector would consider Arkansas and Reno as majors and an art knife enthusiasts would definitely consider the AKI one. Solvang is an excellent show just left it off my list. I don't know much about the Plaza, other than it's in your neck of the woods.

My question, Kevin, is have you done as WWG, and found some emerging makers at the right time? Unfortunately I have not. I have learned quite a bit from a few established ABS makers though. When I started collecting I bought many different types and styles of knives before determining that forged ABS knives were my true interest. I was lucky in that my early knives were quality knives bought at reasonable prices, so I was able to sell / profit / buy my way to my current forged ABS collection with the help of those ABS makers in allowing me to purchase their knives.

Got to John Young and Mike Lovett before the "crowds", commissioned some pieces, and scored exceptional work, at exceptional prices. Only expect to be in this position a few more times before I die, but it is very cool to take delivery of a piece, and be able to turn it for 50% or more, when you get it, if you wish to do so. Have done this exactly twice, but USUALLY realize 30% or more on major purchases/sales. To average around 30% in my opinion is good, however just breaking even doing something you love is not bad. There are not many hobbies out there that don't cost you a load of money. It bothers me however, when collectors un-load knives @ 60%-70% of value as that hurts them, the maker and all who collect their knives.

I stand by my list, because in the last year, have either been in a position to realize a quick turn, have done so, or seen it done, with those makers. As you should. This Forum would not be very interesting if everyone agreed on everything.

Part of being an accomplished collector is knowing who to sell your stuff to, when you want to, and who will take it! You summed it up there, I totally agree.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
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WoodWorkGhost said:
Of course by the time most makers get on this list you have a slim and none chance of getting a knife directly from the maker. Short of winning a drawing you will not get one without a premium.
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which knifemakers actually do a drawing or lottery of some sort to sell their knives at shows?
 
Billman said:
which knifemakers actually do a drawing or lottery of some sort to sell their knives at shows?
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Phil Boguszewski
Ernest Emerson
Tim Galyean
Jess Horn used to, probably the guy that started it.
Ken Onion
Lee Williams
John Young

Any maker who attends the Plaza Cutlery Evening of the Cutlery Arts show, or the AKI is doing a drawing or lottery to sell their knives.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Boses
Richard Rogers
Steve Johnson
Michael Walker
Ron Lake all do the Lottery as well
 
Hi Billman,

Phil Boguszewski
Tony and Reese Bose
Joel Chamblin
Ernie Emerson
Michael Walker
John Young (I think)
Steve Johnson
Walter Brend
Ken Onion
Ron Lake (I think)
Jerry Fisk has a drawing for one knife on his table at each show he attends, in addition to other knives for sale.

Probably forgetting someone.

Then at the Art Knife Invitational (This October) every maker in attendance.

Also Dan Delevan's Invitational on Friday night every maker there has a drawing.

Ed Wormser's Invitational this year on the Friday night of his Chicago show, every maker there will have a drawing.

On top of this there are makers out there that will sell out in the first 5 minutes of shows they attend...literally the first 5 minutes.

Kit Carson
Mike Obeanuf
Charles Marlowe
DB Fraley
Jerry Fisk
Sam Butler
Brett Gatlin
Harvey Dean
Steve Dunn
Jason Knight
Bob Lum
Steve Ryan
Bill Rupple
Russ Andrews
Dan Winkler
Jim Rodebaugh
Rick Hinderer
Ken Stigerwalt
Matt Lerch
Schuyler Lovestrand
Dan Farr
John W. Smith
Greg Lightfoot
Kirby Lambert
Warren Osborne
Joe Kious
Frank Centofante
Matt Roberts
Nick Wheeler

Then there are makers who don't sell out in the first 5 minutes only because they bring 20 knives to a show.

RJ Martin
Bob Terzuola
Brian Tighe
WC Davis
Geno Denning

This is by no means a complete list, just added a few names.

Lots of makers out there doing very well and selling a lot of knives.

WWG





The Art Knife Invitational and Ed Wormser's Invitational each costs $175 (I think) to get in.
 
WoodWorkGhost said:
On top of this there are makers out there that will sell out in the first 5 minutes of shows they attend...literally the first 5 minutes.
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Wow, I've really go to try and go to Blade, or some major knife show this year.

So, what do they do the rest of the weekend, just have an empty table?
 
Billman said:
Wow, I've really go to try and go to Blade, or some major knife show this year.

So, what do they do the rest of the weekend, just have an empty table?
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They show photographs, take orders, chew the fat, go materials shopping, and have fun shooting the breeze with friends.

This is as much a part of the business as actually making and selling knives.;)

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
WoodWorkGhost said:
On top of this there are makers out there that will sell out in the first 5 minutes of shows they attend...literally the first 5 minutes.
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Don Fogg.



The one exception to this (that I know of) is the Reno show, where I have often seen top of the line smiths (Fisk, Winkler, Dunn, Hancock,...) still have stuff on their table after a full day. I suspect it's because it's a small, focused show where the average level of quality is very high.
 
Hi Joss,

What you are seeing is a concentration of several very high priced knives in one room.

While the ABS does an excellent job of training knife makers they do absolutely nothing to market these makers. This seems to be due to their non-profit charter.

Consequently, you are getting fewer clients going to the Reno show for several reasons. One main reason is the location. Similar to the Guild Show being in Florida. Reno is a long way to way to go if you live on the east coast....where 70% of the knife buyers live (a guesstimate based on my client base over the last 12 years).

Then follow up one week later with the Arkansas Custom Knife Show one week later in Little Rock (much more centrally located). Where you have MS Makers like Jerry Fisk, JR Cook, Jimmy Walker, Jim Crowell, John Fitch, Roger Massey, Joe Flournoy, JW Randall, Ron Newton, John Perry, etc. As well as JS Makers like Lin Rhea, Gordon Graham, Don McIntosh, Craig Camerer, Brion Tomberlin, John White, Reggie Barker, Mike Ruth and Apprentice Smiths like Brett Gatlin and Sam Butler. That is a hell of a line up.

For super educated buyers like you, Kevin, STeven, Stephen, Roger and Peter you understand what you are looking at and why the knives cost what they do. That is not the case with a lot of the buyers at Reno or the Blade Show.

The higher the price the fewer the buyers. Put some of the exceptional makers head to head in Reno. Couple that with the prices of some of the knives and the ABS's lack of marketing. That is a recipe for lagging sales. To be sure if these top makers leave the show with a great piece it is only a phone call from being sold upon their return home.

On the plus side all the knives sell, eventually. It is always a great time to see those who are considered the very best bringing their very best.

WWG
 
WWG, I think the average visitor to the ABS show in Reno is closer to the average AKI customer than it is to the average Blade visitor.

I don't believe that 70% of buyers of high end knives are on the East coast.

If there's one show that the ABS should inspire itself from wrt its flagship show (whether in Reno or elsewhere), it's the AKI.

With that said, the show is always super succesful from the makers' standpoint. That they still have knives on their table at the end of day 1 doesn't mean that it's not a good show, it simply means that the bar is very high.
 
Hi Joss,

I actually wrote that 70% of the knife buyers on are the east coast. I should qualify that with east of the Mississippi.

Shows can be successful in many ways, selling out is not always the indicator of a great show.

The AKI is a completely different show from Reno. Reno at its inception was supposed to be MS makers only, unfortunately they couldn't get enough support for that concept. As you know the AKI is by invitation only, the same is not true with the Reno show.

Lots of good knives everywhere you go.

WWG
 
WWG,

I didn't say that the ABS show was like the AKI. In fact, I said the ABS should inspire itself from the AKI, i.e., it's precisely not like the AKI.

I don't know what would be the right format for this show, but clearly 1st come, 1st served is not a good way to decide who gets a table. Personally, I am happy to see some non-MS admitted. This allows Dan Farr and Nick Wheeler in, who make knives arguably much better than some MS.

How many of those shows have you attended? I didn't go last year, and won't go this year either.
 
I have to admit that besides the makers that I read about, I really don't know who are the makers whose knives go up in price immediately after they sell at a show. I don't go to the shows. Threads like this one are very educational, and I appreciate all the knowledgeable input.
 
I hope it's not inappropriate, but I just wanted to stick my head in here and say thank you for the kind mention :)

I have had very little time in my shop this year but ironically I've gotten almost as much done as in the previous year.

I find myself in a bit of a dilemma as I no longer rely on knives as any semblance of income. Anything that I may sell at Reno will just go into my "big toy" account. So... since I do NOT rely on them for income now, do I take the prices down a touch, or leave them the same?

Or do I jack them up because I am so fabulous? :cool:

;) j/k

One of my most important orders has already been covered on payment, but I think it will be one of my best knives to date... so in theory it would be very expensive ;)

-Nick-
 
+I'm starting to wonder about the drawing idea. I've talked to Steve Johnson, and a couple of others about it. I'm starting to think it is something I am going to have to do. At Blade I sold out when I walked into the room. I never made it to the table with a single knife. Spirit of Steel, Same thing happened. Manuela and I attended the Texas Knife Collectors Show in Austin Texas a few months Back, and Manuela put the knives on the table, But by the time I got to the table, (With in minutes of arriving), the knives again were sold. People that came to see me at the show, were disappointed. Nothing to handle, much less purchase. I saw one Lovett sell at blade 3 times in one day, bringing a healthy profit each time. May-be I should have bought it and re-sold it! Haa! Mike
 
Mike this is an enviable position, indeed. Think about it and how you might make it somewhat fair to all.

Hellooooo Nick... (to the sound of Seinfied welcoming Newman) ;)

Coop
 
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