Originally posted by Les Robertson
Hi Dan,
Just out of curiosity what knives have you invested in?
Not trying to be a smart ass here. But it seems a lot of people (to include you) post the "negative" aspects of collectible markets.
Obviously someone has to make money with these.
My two daughters aged 7 and 10 started their own business selling beanie babies (K&K Beanies). After it was all said and done each made over $3,000 (net profit). Not bad for two little girls in a collectible market.
I suspect that there are opportunities in custom knives.
BTW, SGT York, the Ninja, fad's and trends are all markting techniques that can work in your favor as well.
While it's very difficult to imploy "market timing" as an effective stock/commodity market strategy. As you say the custom knife market is a small community and a type of market timing can be utilized to your advantage.
After all isn't "market timing" what magazines do to sell knives on the news stands. Aren't they the ones that have SGT York and the Ninja hyping the latest knife in their clients advertising?
These publications make a lot of money off of these. They then in turn fund their employee's 401K's with the profits realized from "investing" in custom knives.
Well it appears that at least someone is using custom knives as an investment.
Think oustide the box guys!
Les, I post the "negative" aspects because they are quite real.
You seem to know a lot about knives but advocating knives as an investment is not prudent. The fact that your daughters made money selling toys does not make any other collectible a good investment. Just look at that "market" now, fairly dead wouldn't you say? The "great success stories" in collectibles are generally short lived and are not repeated.
Collectibles are poor investments because they involve a high degree of risk. Let me explain my point of view.
Collectibles are risky because the market is excessively volatile. What is hot one moment is "not so hot" the next moment. Sports cards, toys, coins , and yes knives have all experienced this phenomenon. Buying habits and economic conditions change frequently. You can do all the "homework" you want, the only thing you can count on is change and no one can fully predict what that change will be. I think this is especially true in a personality/brand driven field like custom knives. Sure ther are makers who will bring more in resale but here is in an extreme example: what if that "hot maker" got arrested for "kiddie porn"? Might put a damper on his "aftermarket value".
Collectibles are risky because the market is very small and too easily manipulated. The market for pearl knives was dramatically effected by the buying habits of one man, his death had the opposite effect. There were some "Nascar" trading cards produced about 15 years ago and the price for them went through the roof primarily due to the actions of one individual. Don't forget that the market for Nascar collectibles is much larger than the market for custom knives. Those cards have much less monetary value now. Are custom knives immune from this? I think not.
Collectibles are risky because there are fundamental problems with liquidity. The ideal investment should be highly liquid (ie quickly and easily sold for cash) for as little cost as possible. There are very few buyers in the overall picture for even the most popular makers and this limits liquidity. The internet has helped with this but it would be difficult to move a large quantity of expensive blades quickly and get "full value". It is easy to sell a few hundred dollars worth of knives, how about $10,000 or even $100,000? We are talking about an investment worth our time here aren't we? One of course could use a dealer or give a volume discount but that can significantly effect the actual return on the investment. There also tends to be a price ceiling where the buyers evaporate and this in turn limits the growth potential of the item as an investment (many buyers for $200 knives on the rise, less for $1000 ones and even fewer for $10,000 ones)
Many moons ago I worked at a baseball card shop and was often bemused by people who could not understand why the shop would not buy their "hot card" at retail...Many traditional investments (stocks, bonds etc) have transaction costs that are very low. Any dealers out there who want to make a 1% commission to sell a knife? Try 10-50% (or more) for many collectibles. This factor is often ignored by those who advocate collectibles as an investment.
I could go on and on (sure seems like it though doesn't it?) but here are my out of the box investment thoughts....some might think them weird
1. Live on less than you make
2. The borrower is slave to the lender. Pay off your all your debts (including your house if you can). It is a great feeling not to have payments on anything but your house. It might mean not driving a fancy car or having a boat or buying lots of stuff (not bad things in and of themselves). I do not plan on doing much investing outside of my retirement plan until I am completely debt free. Some will question this, my response is would you take a loan out against your house if you owned it free and clear to invest in anything (stocks, knives, beanie babies, etc)?
3. Save at least 15% for retirement. If you have a 401k with a match do that first, otherwise Roth IRAs. I prefer mutual funds as my primary investment as they reduce your risk. Single stocks are also pretty volatile and risky and I don't buy them (for every Microsoft and IBM there is also an Enron) . Many people are scared of the market right now, but let's face it if the US stock market goes in the crapper there will be NO market for knives or any collectible at all....except as defensive weapons in a post apocalyptic world
4. Get rich slowly. Actually that is a name of a great book by a fellow named Bill Spivey. Also read the "millionare next door". There are very few "get rich quick" schemes that actually work. And talk of 100%+ returns is a get rich quick scheme isn't it? At 12% (the average rate of mutual fund returns over the last 70 years or so) you DOUBLE your money every 7 years. Not bad.
5. Give to your church or charity, you will get much greater returns from that!!!
Look there is nothing wrong with buying, enjoying, and selling knives. It is quite possible to make enough to increase your collection. Just don't have delusions of achieving any real wealth...
Signed
preachy old bandaidman
BTW Les I buy talonite and stellite knives because my first love is fishing and I hate rust and I like the properties of the material....Mayo, Blackwood, and Simonich form the bulk of my 8 knife collection. Also have a Murray Carter one. It would rust in a heartbeat but I thought it was really cool.....so I bought it. As far as company 401ks go I challenge you to find one that invests in custom knives!!!