Short answer:
I would want to be able to: Boil water, make a fire, cut stuff, and create a dry shelter. I think these needs are pretty much universally met in the choices of most of the posters.
Knife, water pot, fire starter, tarp.
Long Answer:
There is a difference between bushcraft and wilderness survival. I think we forget that the people who have traditionally depended upon pure bushcraft skills for survival have done so from their infancy giving them intimate local knowledge, in concert with others as skilled as they are under a tribal system of division of labor, and have available the accumulated resources of a wide region collected over the entire growing season. As a member of modern society in a wilderness emergency you wont have any of that.
Making fire, shelter and safe water are some of the hardest things to do if you have to rely on primitive skills with no gear at all. Selecting the right items represents a huge savings of your most valuable survival resource, TIME.
Yes, you can make a debris shelter with no tools and a friction fire if youre really good. Heres a scenario, you realize youre lost, its been drizzling of and on all day and you twisted your ankle at 3:30 PM. You have about three hours of daylight left and you need a debris shelter and friction fire. OK, go!
Remember, youre in a survival situation for a reason, something went wrong, and that probably wont happen at 9:30 AM on a clear, warm day. More typical, its getting dark, time to stop hunting and head back to camp over that ridge and in the fading light you realize This aint the ridge. Are you really so good that you can use primitive skills to make a debris shelter and friction fire at dusk? Im not.
Most people will realize they are lost when they decide to leave the wilderness not while they are tracking an elk at mid-day or hiking in to the waterfall they plan to photograph. Primitive skills are a fantastic hobby and certainly have their place but there is no WAY I would ever go into the wilderness planning to depend on them if things should go wrong.
Realistically I would take MY knife, canteen, poncho, etc. These items take up no more space than the four items listed in most of the posts. This is what I actually do carry as baseline survival gear so I dont think Im cheating.
KNIFE: BK-7 set up as a PSKK (Personal Survival Knife Kit)
Contents: 5 liter emergency water bag, KMnO4, Sparklite & tinder, Space blanket wrapped w/ duct tape, compass, ACR whistle, Starflash mirror, Inova LED light, Moleskin, Ibuprophen, salt, needle, #4 waxed line, 3 meters paracord, #24 scalpel blade, Single edge razor blade, Aluminum foil, small sharpening stone, 3 birthday candles, Vaseline treated cotton.
CANTEEN: US Army canteen w/ stainless steel cup, stove sleeve. The small pouch contains a Mini-bic, Potable Aqua Plus. KMnO4 taped into back of pouch.
PONCHO W/ LINER: These two stay together, liner is bundled inside the poncho to keep dry. This is wrapped in paracord to compress the total package and provide cordage.
BIVY SACK: Since I get a fourth item I would throw in the bivy sack. A bivy is a decent shelter in its own right but greatly increases the efficiency of any improvised shelter.
If I had to, I could fit all of this on my belt and in the thigh pockets of my BDUs. Normally I carry my knife and canteen on a pistol belt and the bivy & poncho are in my daypack.
Mac