Everyone has probably hit it on the head. And while I can totally understand the "why won't someone take my money!?" mentality, it grates on me personally in a totally-not-their-fault-so-Im-not-going-to-be-a-jerk-about-it way simply because I am living and breathing it right now. I work in construction in an industry with a very, very, VERY ridiculously high demand due to "the new normal" (I'm talking demand we haven't seen in nearly 70 years of doing this), and I answer this question at least 6 times a day in as much detail as I can. Many of my customers have no idea how logistics work. They are the kind of folks that can't think past the back warehouse as to how stuff gets on the floors of Walmart.
Here's the best way I can (probably and with an admittedly large pinch of speculation) sum it up:
The world is a dumpster fire, we all know. However, it seems that the pandemic has really drawn a tangible line in the sand between the Haves and the Have-Nots. The news focuses on the folks without jobs and behind on their rent and in food lines...as it should. Lotta folks out there hurting in an awful way even if they haven't been touched by Covid first hand. I do not envy those folks and count my blessings that I am on the opposite side of the spectrum and will be happy to help anyone who needs it. This has been a really ugly past year.
However, there is a very wide swath of folks who are doing just fine, as are my customers. Working from home, making the same or more money, and plenty of time to browse the net for a new toy, or carpeting, or a pool, or a kitchen, or whatever. They can't go anywhere. Vacations are on hold. So what's a person with means to do? Spend money on something else, so it might as well be something that they want because they are bored (I mean that in a nearly clinical sense. We are ALL bored with the world), or an upgrade to the house or maybe just build a new house because money is so damn cheap to borrow right now.
They have driven demand to unprecedented and, frankly unhealthy and unsustainable, levels that will have a massive ripple effect for YEARS after this. It's insane. Last year, it was all about understanding the virus, being safe, and figuring how to operate manufacturing in a safe way. They've gotten that ironed out for the most part. It's not perfect, but it was at less than 30% in many manufacturing trades dealing with a 300% uptick in demand. Getting the machines back on and at least keeping up near to pace is astonishing.
However, demand just keeps going up. Where are the vaccines? When are they coming? Well I guess I'm not traveling this year either...let's go ahead an buy X. It's gotten to the point that in my industry the actual manufacturers are getting THEIR steel supplies from the mills on a rationed timeline. I dont think folks understand just how whisker thin of a margin we are from almost all construction and manufacturing of durable goods grinding to a halt because there simply isn't any raw material to turn into shiny new toys/houses. When you have an event that simultaneously affects the flow of raw goods AND finished goods on the macroeconomic global scale, all bets are off on how long it takes to play out.
So 2021 is probably just going to be a sucky year if you want to buy new knives, or guns, or video game consoles, or kitchens, or pools, or houses, or lumber, or furniture, or ammo, or roofing, or fences, or cars...etc. A lot of us are going to be very disappointed when it comes to our hobbies and our wants. Disappointed but gainfully employed. At least until all dries up and we are out of work too. Every business, every job, depends on something being made at some level.