The short is answer is yes, it is reasonable. Why? Because, while there are some just astounding masters and a bunch of really experienced makers, there are a bunch more people that make products that are not all that great IMO, yet they still seem to sell many knives. If you can exceed the mediocrity, then you've also found a willing customer base. I promise you, that if you can make a knife in any of the steels available properly ( good shape, long lasting edge and appealing to the eye) you will find people to buy them. If you put some effort into it, you will exceed most production knives out there, including the really expensive ones. It will however take research, skill, investment of funds and a bunch of time.
I am brand new to this having only started the grinding part of this job/hobby approx 5 months ago. However, I spent years reading about it and watching videos posted by those that have come before us on this path. I spent hundreds on DVD's and books and have read them front to back and watched numerous videos in my quest to participate in this field.
I will tell you that I have learned two things in the time I've been grinding. One, if you're standards are like mine (obsessive compulsive/painfully discerning) it can be very, very hard to make what you might consider a decent knife. And it doesn't get easier, only harder. Two, if you're truly serious and want to make a knife that would at least pass critical inspection by the established knife makers out there much less a nitpicky paying customer, the machine and supplies can get costly.
You can hand grind an "ok" knife. But there are simply certain tools that will allow you to not only take your craft to the next level, but also do so with less time invested per knife - if you're goal is to make money and perhaps support yourself with it.
You can grind out a bunch of blades, that may look ok and perform ok, but each and everyone will have your name attached to it. So that everyone else that sees that early blade and how it looks and performs, will know it was your work and judge you based on it. Think about that. Essentially every blade you make has your reputation riding on it. Back in the day, that would be fine, but you are interested in entering an established market and in my opinion, you have to hit the ground running.
So how far are you willing to go with it? That will determine if it's reasonable in a sense.
Me? I went essentially all in right of the bat. I'm coming up on 47 and there's simply no time for me to fiddle around with this if I want to make enough to pay some bills. In five months I'm up to two 2x72's (thinking of a third), a 22.5 Evenheat oven, Jet metal band saw, Rockwell hardness tester, a mill drill and a smaller drill press (also thinking about a third) a large buffer, two sand blast cabinets and a ton of belts. Now, I'm realizing the need for a clean room and a second, smaller band saw to help keep the grit and metal dust and shavings out of the kydex. Cause once it's in the sheath, it stays there to make nice little scratches on the blade you may have spent 15 hours to get the scratch pattern the way you wanted it...
And let me tell you, hardened CPM154 is amazingly resistant to hand sanding. lol
I say all this not as an experienced knife maker, just the opposite in fact. I'm a newborn babe compared to many out there in the field. However, I've just sold the seventh and eighth knives I've ever completed and have multiple offers from retail stores (this is not a great avenue for a "custom" maker, you'll lose money on this deal unless you want to do huge production runs - bleh.) to sell them as well. I also have a couple dozen orders already and I've yet to advertise in any meaningful way. I don't intend this as self glorification, only what is possible if you're serious about all aspects of this endeavor.
So while like you, I was at first not sure this was the right direction, I'm pretty sure that I'm on the right path.
Justin
Black Raven Arms
https://www.facebook.com/Black-Raven-Arms-947029985371467/
