Is the knife making industry driving itself into the ground?

I don't know if you remember but I was just thinking today about this old thread where you had this argument with a guy who just couldn't believe the value of things is determined by what people will pay for them. Seriously. You are no economist because for some crazy reason you believe market value is determined by what people pay.

I think its the same thing here. The market is going to support the number of makers its supports. And if one fears that too many bad makers will enter the market....they will just go away. Its not going to kill the market entirely. It doesn't work that way.

If anything its the opposite. If too few makers control the market...then you got a potential problem. Even then people stop buying the big guys...and eventually the problem goes away.

Think autos.

I dunno. I never took Econ, not even in high school.
 
When you say 'new makers' do you mean new to you, or makers that just started? As you get more interested in knives, your awareness of makers perks up, but also search engines catch on and bombard you with suggestions that to May not have received before you got so interested.

Also, I have met a lot of makers that have been doing this for years, but they are just starting to break (or just starting a web site, or just joining the forum, etc). That said, I know some great makers that don't spend any time on line or on forums.
 
I think the reason you see so many knife makers enter the market is because there is a growing interest/market for knives. It all cooks down to supply and demand eventually, but if you make a great knife that people will acknowledge as a superior product, you will make money regardless of how many makers are out there.
 
I think its the same thing here. The market is going to support the number of makers its supports. And if one fears that too many bad makers will enter the market....they will just go away. Its not going to kill the market entirely. It doesn't work that way.

If anything its the opposite. If too few makers control the market...then you got a potential problem. Even then people stop buying the big guys...and eventually the problem goes away.

Think autos.

I dunno. I never took Econ, not even in high school.


Took MicroEcon in community college. Pretty interesting and I had a great teacher. But it's not like you can't learn it on your own (or more likely already pick up what you need to know about just from living life).
 
Why would too many makers make the industry go downhill? Maybe you can give us an example of where that has happened. Certainly not in the car industry, for example.

No, not the car industry as there are relatively few manufacturers per dollar in that industry. However, the classic economic case for this kind of argument is the furniture industry. Very low barriers to entry. High shipping cost per dollar of value. So, tiny little two man garage start ups can succeed making dining room tables, kitchen cabinets, and the occasional rocking chair. The furniture industry is not dominated by huge, highly efficient corporations.

What's the problem, you may ask? Because two guys making a decent living in a fragmented industry isn't really a problem, is it? Depends on your point of view. From the cost efficiency perspective, two guys in a garage is insanely expensive per piece. No, really. It is. Any decent factory could make a thousand pieces in the same time those guys make two, and and for a tenth of the unit cost. So, furniture prices can be considered somewhat artificially high as a result. This relatively high pricing and high cost to ship pretty much eliminates any possible export market (with rare exceptions) which has trade balance implications.

The opposing argument is that with so many manufacturers, people who are buying based on cost alone have many alternatives, so each individual firm (whether two guys in a garage or a modern factory) has very little pricing power and either they offer what the market will pay, or they lose their shirts and go back to working at the paper mll. If they can get their jobs back.

Another perspective is one that is a bit harder to describe. Two guys in a garage have nothing in terms of benefits. Until this year, they may not have even had basic health care insurance. That will be handy when someone slices their hand open on the table saw. There is a social cost for those who can't afford basic health care (an argument for a single payer system with universal coverage). That social cost has to be balanced by some other benefits, such as two guys who more or less support themselves and serve the interests of the general public by providing a decent product. The same argument can be made if these guys make a substandard product that injures someone due to poor design or craftsmanship and during the law suit it comes to light that they essentially have nothing and the state is left to help the victim, if the state is willing to provide anything at all (probably not in this day and age).

On the other hand, you have two guys doing what they want to do, presumably, which is a kind of freedom we rarely see these days. There's nothing wrong with that, but it does come with a price.

So, if we substitue "knife industry" for "furniture industry" do we come up with the same issues? Maybe. There are half a dozen or so major manufacturers here in the US, and there are hundreds of small start ups with one or two guys in a garage somewhere. No, they'll never make a major contribution to our international balance of trade, but presumably they are doing something they love and contributing a valuable service to the general public.

One can also ask the question if we as a country should be doing more to help small businesses like this, not with lower taxes (these guys aren't paying huge taxes, so really, what are they saving?), but with things like a single payer health care system and a better retirement system.
 
I too have seen just tons and tons of knife manufacturers pop up recently, I do not think the industry is driving itself into the ground because even though you have all these manufacturers there is quality and if you still have quality in an industry than it shall stay afloat, because well made knives are still there, while these new 10$ pocket knife companies don't compare so they will eventually be gone.
 
I think there is a mentality among certain collectors that they HAVE to be one of the first people in line for a new maker. They fear that the maker will get popular and close their books and they will miss out.

The problem is this hypes up a lot of new makers who don't necessarily deserve the attention. A lot of them crap out under the weight of the orders and not being versed in running a business or customer service. A lot of others are going to have interest die off rapidly after their initial pop, they will go do other things and the people who bought high will have knives not worth anywhere close to what they paid.
 
With companies using the latest CNC and other computerized tools to produce super almost custom knives at far less than custom knives it must be making it difficult for some makers to compete.

I am by no means an expert so please look at this as a layman's opinion. I just find it hard to resist buying a midtech knife thats technically perfect at half of what a custom maker's knife cost. I see this as a problem for makers in the industry.
 
I have noticed over the past 4-6 months the rapid increase of new makers. It seems like every time I browse through the for sale area I see a new maker. I have also been seeing a couple of new makers a week appear on instagram. Is there a limit to how many new makers this industry can support until it starts to go down hill?
It all revolves around "supply and demand". There are always a few folks within the world population of 4.5 billion that overlook $30 SAKs, folders and pen knives in favour of fly-by-night blades, $250 jobs or a $1000 custom and any number of flavour/fashion of the month accessory (and disposable) items. If anything the availability of useful and of quality knives will always remain steady no matter how many makers are out there.
 
fairly obsessive collector here, of all things weapon-- I personally only buy objects that are hand made, the exception is guns obviously because I cant afford antique wheellocks and flintlocks. I think the custom knife industry like the custom furniture industry is uniquely suited to survival even with loads and loads of start ups and small time makers, as each artist develops a style those styles appeal to different people, some people collect to follow investments or pure asthetics or whatever they collect for-- I just think that aspect of wanting "unique" things never goes away, and is particularly high in people who like weapons and can afford to make collections, a custom is not really a far throw for that line of logic. I recently met a custom knife maker on the blade forums here , or knew him for some time but saw one of his knives on a thread and finally sent an email, and I have placed an enormous order with him , that will put a great deal of demands on his skills ; this would be impossible without lots of people who love this trying to make a living at it, so I say the more the merrier: this is an industry that tolerates custom crafting very well. ( also our population is almost 8 billion now but evening out :D)-- also at the CNC machine question-- this is totally against the principle of a custom piece of shaped steel in my collecting mind.
 
Just like in anything else, there will be a lot of people jumping in, but few can hang on. I can think of a few custom knife makers who make decent products but they lack the "magic". Just making a good product won't cut it anymore, and as somebody said competition is always good and the main beneficiaries end up being the consumers.

I'll second this!! I went to the Blade show this year. Lots of tables with almost identical looking knives. Most of the products looked good, felt decent in the hand, and had decent grinds, and were perfectly serviceable knives. It takes more than just being able to make a decent knife to stand out. Nothing wrong with tons of makers churning out small volumes of great knives in their spare time either. I'd love to have a hobby that actually pays for itself.

Grizz
 
I think that CNC machine work gives that person a vast advantage over the guy working in his garage. How else do you come up with tight tolerances time after time...and make it pay?
 
What's wrong with folks wanting to toss their hat in the ring? Competition ALWAYS makes good for the customer. When you have so many people trying to get into the game, it makes it more likely that you'll receive a quality product. Those who make poor or subpar products won't be around long.

I beg to differ on a couple points.
Some folks in the past have come in strong, talked a big game then within weeks they were gone. They get overwhelmed and disappear, unfortunately with some unfinished jobs and money that doesn't belong to them.

Competition in a formal business environment maybe a good thing, but in a small industry with custom makers it cannot always be good. Some folks saturate the market with subpar items, or less than ideal items and soon they are every where you look. It gets hard for new people to tell the good from the bad. In larger companies competition can drive prices up, certain manufacturers wanting to complete on the level of others will offer items that are very nice, but prices out of the range of many of their previous customers.

I do agree to an extent that some that make a poor product should go away, but unfortunately we still have people all too eager to send their hard earned money to unknown companies and known bad dealing makers. Too many people don't look before they leap. This causes more problems for the community in general than it solves.

Just my opinion though, based on some of the cases that have presented on the exchange in the last 2-3 years. I'm not saying I am right, only what I can see happening and have seen happening lately.
 
There will always be more knife buyers than knife makers. Makers are always coming and going and the competition is great for the consumer. If it was easy everyone would be doing it.
 
That's economics. Suppliers will enter the market until the market reaches equilibrium. I don't know if that's the case with the knife industry, but it certainly won't drive the industry into the ground. It will simply become not worth it for more makers to enter the market.
 
The maker side of things is not just about making a knife, it is about design, or can be.
There are so many layers to this industry, there is plenty of room for people to move up, down, or out.
Succesfully making & selling 10 knives a year is totally different to 500 knives a year, is totally different to having your design licensed by a major manufacturer.

There is room for all types. There may not be room for everybody, but there is always room for a new guy who does it well.

Industries stagnate without new blood.
 
There are also many more people getting into the knife community and custom knives. A lot of people have that one custom maker they love and those people will support these small time new makers and help them survive. The ones that make great innovative designs are the ones that make the big bucks but the smaller ones most of the time will survive as long as the passion is strong.
 
There will always be more knife buyers than knife makers. Makers are always coming and going and the competition is great for the consumer. If it was easy everyone would be doing it.

Man.....I'm not sure what you are talking about.

There will always be more casual buyers than knifemakers....they buy a custom or two MAYBE, and then they are out.

Serious collectors, people who own 100 or more custom knives that cost $500.00 or more....no. They are focused on tacticals at this point and the number of serious buyers for traditional fixed blades(forged big bowies, drop point hunters......) is dropping very quickly....I have known (1) collector who specialized in drop point hunters, dearly departed Larry Bailey...as good a man and as great a collector as their can be.....but he is about it....haven't heard of one collector pick up where Larry left off.

Compound this with the Kershaw/ZT collectors, the Buck knife collectors, Spyderco collectors....many of which are paying something close to retail and in many, many cases will never get close to that when they want to sell, and cannot even begin to consider a custom knife.....

The knife industry is not killing itself, not by a longshot.....but custom makers frequently slit their own throats by not paying attention to market dynamics....and then they get into trouble and leave, making those that invested in them, holding, many times....something that is worth pennies on the dollar(Mike Obenauf comes to mind).

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
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I think there is a mentality among certain collectors that they HAVE to be one of the first people in line for a new maker. They fear that the maker will get popular and close their books and they will miss out.

The problem is this hypes up a lot of new makers who don't necessarily deserve the attention. A lot of them crap out under the weight of the orders and not being versed in running a business or customer service. A lot of others are going to have interest die off rapidly after their initial pop, they will go do other things and the people who bought high will have knives not worth anywhere close to what they paid.


I have noticed this quite a bit. Especially ones that happen to get some "media" attention. There has been a few times where Jim Skelton has showcased a really small new guy and their books get filled within a day. You see it happen quite a bit where the people who do happen to get in first can usually resell the knife if they don't like it and make more than what they actually paid for it (if the demand is still there). But you're right what follows is a total crapshoot and really dependent on how good of a business man the maker really is.

At the end of the day, being a buyer generally favors being the first one or being a vulture. You are the first so you don't have to wait 6 years to get one/pay twice the MSRP on the secondary market or you just wait until the demand dies down and pick up ones that people are trying to unload
 
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