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It's impossible to evacuate any US city
- Thread starter DaveH
- Start date
We discussed this a bit on the political forum. I have always thought it to be impossible to evacuate. At the tender age of about 12 during the 1960's I heard about the southern Connecticut evac plan and I didn't think it would work because I thought that everyone would run out of gas because the gas station owners would all be evacuating too. It's odd that nobody else ever thought of this in the ensuing 40 years and that it is a significant factor in the traffic jams in Texas. Is that top job in FEMA still open? 
stjames
Sebenzanista
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The roadways around our cities are insufficient to move the amount of cars that use them on a daily basis; even a minor accident can force everything from a crawl to a grinding halt during commute hours. Here in California there is no serious alternative to driving, trains are limited at best most airports are removed enough from major population centers to make access to them difficult as well.
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Car pooling thats funny. If we had to leave not only would we take both vehicles but I'd be towing a boat also. I'm taking as much of my crap as possible.
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DaveH said:
In my opinion the greatest thing from Germany in almost 100 years was Hitler's autobahn system . Ike took it upon himself to do the same & now we have many interstates. My only quarrel is not enough of them.If ours were doubled evacuation could be feasible . Blocking & using the incoming routes except for 1 inbound lane would help .
Some of those in positions of authority confuse their priorities .
Uncle Alan
Cougar Allen
Buccaneer (ret.)
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If the roads out of Boston could somehow be doubled then the 5:00 rush every day would be only a little bit less nerve-wracking -- and it would still be completely impossible to evacuate the city in any reasonable time. It would take a lot more than doubling....
Thankfully, thus far, it appears that hurricane Rita was far less deadly than Katrina, over three weeks ago. When all of the numbers are counted, in the aftermath of Rita, it may be learned that the most people that perished were the elderly folks that were being evacuated, in the bus that caught fire.
If we truly want to have effective evacuations, then we should increase the capacity of American roads. Another suggestion would be to find some way to stagger the evacuation, like those folks with last names that start with "A" can start their evac between 7 and 8 AM, those with last names starting with "B" can leave between 8 and 9 AM, etc. But there also needs to be authorities available who can be in charge of enforcing the staggered evacation rules....
Have there been other storms, in the past, where the death toll was highest among evacuees, because of the evacuation, compared to people actually killed directly by the storm?
GeoThorn
If we truly want to have effective evacuations, then we should increase the capacity of American roads. Another suggestion would be to find some way to stagger the evacuation, like those folks with last names that start with "A" can start their evac between 7 and 8 AM, those with last names starting with "B" can leave between 8 and 9 AM, etc. But there also needs to be authorities available who can be in charge of enforcing the staggered evacation rules....
Have there been other storms, in the past, where the death toll was highest among evacuees, because of the evacuation, compared to people actually killed directly by the storm?
GeoThorn
Esav Benyamin
MidniteSuperMod
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Some "cities" are easier to evacuate than others. Getting out of the Bronx is easy: you can walk to Yonkers. Manhattan is an island, though, and just getting to a bridge or tunnel can cause gridlock.
More roads aren't the answer, unless you plan to pave the entire countryside. Staggered departures, leaving a couple of days ahead of time, traffic cops routing cars around breakdowns, reversing inbound roads. Everything helps.
Not everyone evacuates. A man with the memorable name of Harry Truman stubbornly insisted on riding out the great Mt. St. Helen's blast. His ashes were never identified ...
More roads aren't the answer, unless you plan to pave the entire countryside. Staggered departures, leaving a couple of days ahead of time, traffic cops routing cars around breakdowns, reversing inbound roads. Everything helps.
Not everyone evacuates. A man with the memorable name of Harry Truman stubbornly insisted on riding out the great Mt. St. Helen's blast. His ashes were never identified ...
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Staggered evacuations? Come on! impossible , one would have to stop every car at every enterance to the freeway. Then how do you remove the ones that have names who's turn it isn't till like tomorrow. "I'm sorry you and your family will have to go back home till tomorrow at 3". I'll be putting the hammer down . I'll say this I'm not waiting I'm leaving asap and I'm not stopping cause my name starts late in the alphabet.
It seems to me with advanced warning like a hurricane most wait till a day or two before. It seems the key to missing gridlock would be to go 4-5 days ahead.
It seems to me with advanced warning like a hurricane most wait till a day or two before. It seems the key to missing gridlock would be to go 4-5 days ahead.
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There's also probably going to always be one person who would like to be "the" guy that stuck around and saw it happen, even if it kills him.
Esav Benyamin
MidniteSuperMod
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Way back when we had an oil embargo and gas was in short supply, service stations staggered customers based on the first number on the license plate, a much easier system to administer than by driver's name.Lone Hunter said:
Hm.... This thread has me thinking that if America were in the midst of a nuclear attack, say an intercontinental ballistic missle were spotted by N.O.R.A.D., flying east across the Pacific Ocean, or another terroristic attack, like a dirty bomb being set-off in a known city, that we aren't going be told, by the government (local, State or Federal...), that it's happening/about to happen.
If a so-called "orderly" evacuation of the Gulf Coast of Texas, like we've witnessed this week, could become so log-jammed, imagine the chaos that would ensue if the government warned of a nuclear weapon approaching the West Coast of America, or foreknowledge that [your city's name here] was going to be the site of a dirty bomb attack. That's a traffic jam that would be disastrous....
GeoThorn
If a so-called "orderly" evacuation of the Gulf Coast of Texas, like we've witnessed this week, could become so log-jammed, imagine the chaos that would ensue if the government warned of a nuclear weapon approaching the West Coast of America, or foreknowledge that [your city's name here] was going to be the site of a dirty bomb attack. That's a traffic jam that would be disastrous....
GeoThorn
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If you look at the size of the country and concentrate where hurricane prone areas are, there may very well be workable evacuation plans. To have a plan for every area of the country? I doubt it. We may be able to better prepare for hurricanes, but to prepare for the unknown, in my mind is impossible.
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Charlotte, in the "uptown area", is evacuated every week day at about 1700 and is practically closed for weekends.
Unless there is a scheduled event all of the businesses including restraunts are closed and even when there is a scheduled event most of the businesses stay closed anyway. Even the panhandlers go somewhere else outside of normal business hours.
I work in one of the tall buildings uptown, and really enjoy Charlotte, but the dang place keeps banker's hours.
Evacuate it on the weekend or after 5 or on a holiday? Already done.
Unless there is a scheduled event all of the businesses including restraunts are closed and even when there is a scheduled event most of the businesses stay closed anyway. Even the panhandlers go somewhere else outside of normal business hours.
I work in one of the tall buildings uptown, and really enjoy Charlotte, but the dang place keeps banker's hours.
Evacuate it on the weekend or after 5 or on a holiday? Already done.
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Esav, yes I remember that. But who's going to wait if they are ready to go and your life may be on the line? Or at least get to hotels out of the area before they fill up because your plate starts with an odd number ?
Then most have 2 or more cars, to choose the right plate for the earliest day.Then theres the man power to put cops at every enterance to every freeway.. Now throw in tons of people who leave at the "wrong" time, how are you going to stop them all, or even get them to turn around in the mass of cars? Then theres guys like my freind Pete he drove for over a year with a plate he made of wood and hand painted........
I happen to have a few dozen plates on the garage wall
hell I can go as some guy from Alaska or a 1952 NYs plate or a trailer from Utah.
Then most have 2 or more cars, to choose the right plate for the earliest day.Then theres the man power to put cops at every enterance to every freeway.. Now throw in tons of people who leave at the "wrong" time, how are you going to stop them all, or even get them to turn around in the mass of cars? Then theres guys like my freind Pete he drove for over a year with a plate he made of wood and hand painted........
I happen to have a few dozen plates on the garage wall
hell I can go as some guy from Alaska or a 1952 NYs plate or a trailer from Utah.
Gollnick
Musical Director
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Portland, Oregon would be the worst.
The city has deliberately not built and expanded highways and roads to keep up with population growth. This has been deliberately done in order to encourage people to drive less, live where they work etc., and to promote the use of public transit including their darling, the MAX light rail system.
I've got news for you: the light rail will not get people out of the city in the event of an emergency evacuation.
The city has deliberately not built and expanded highways and roads to keep up with population growth. This has been deliberately done in order to encourage people to drive less, live where they work etc., and to promote the use of public transit including their darling, the MAX light rail system.
I've got news for you: the light rail will not get people out of the city in the event of an emergency evacuation.
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Gollnick said:
Youve got a huge frickin river on yer doorstep. Ya wanna evacuate Portland quickly,
..learn ta swim!!!!
If you take a look at the US Census: US Municipalities Over 50,000:
Ranked by 2000 Population you would see what a daunting task this is. Evacuating 1.8 million people from most of Houston, our 4th largest city with nearly four times the population of New Orleans, along with Galveston (pop. 57,247), Beaumont (pop. 113,866) and coastal cities and towns from Port Aransas to Port Charles was done with comparatively few problems and the obvious stumbling blocks opening I-45S to northbound traffic and fuel will be addressed. You cannot foretell every problem and have a viable contingency plan for it but you do learn from mistakes and oversights. Also, Texas has not been neglecting its transportation infrastructure. The Trans-Texas corridor currently in the planning stages will no doubt enjoy positive press and government impetus in the months following Rita and Katrina that it needs for passage. There is still resistance from both environmental interests and property owners (but thats another political thread).
Population density plays a larger role in evacuations of large cities than mere gross population figures and here I doubt a real solution is possible. the best one could hope for is maximum advance warning. In high density cities with geophysical limitations such as San Francisco with few exits and an equally dense outlying metro area, a decent public transportation evacuation plan is not just an option it is an absolute requirement. Should any of the BART tunnels or the Golden Gate, SF to Oakland Bay, Dunbarton, or Hayward bridges fail however, they will be swimmin with Gollnick.
This also points out why it is important to develop local and state plans and exercise, exercise, exercise. By exercising the plan though I am not being so impractical as to try and evacuate a city as a regular matter of course. Even the best logisticians use table-top scenarios and computer simulations as essential components in their planning. Mass casualty and city emergency exercises need to be done on a regular basis and should have oversight from state and federal evaluators.
But beyond this, why even evacuate for hurricanes?
Living in Japan, I went through numerous typhoons including a couple of Super Typhoons (sustained winds >130 kts). In the Pacific where typhoons are year round phenomena and there have already been 20 named typhoons in 2005, Japan experienced two Cat IV typhoons this month with relatively minor impact, minimal loss of life, no general panic, and no emergency evacuations on the magnitude seen here. Why??? Could planning and intelligent building codes play a major role??
The sea wall systems in Japan are designed to distribute the force of normal tidal flows and, to an extent, lessen the impact of storm surges. Houses are built mostly with reinforced concrete bases and walls to withstand winds and surge. Windows are reinforced and often shuttered with firmly anchored steel roll-up covers. In low lying areas, the same construction applies but unlike most of our Gulf and Atlantic coasts, houses are often built with an open lower floor design and the living areas are on the 2nd story. They also do not build on the shifting sands with a floating slab as we often do and instead drive their supports to bedrock for stability.
Costly?? Maybe. But its more effective than our haphazard building codes and cost is relative when lives are at risk. I get particularly incensed at simple things like failure to use the right fasteners in roofs everywhere; failure to use established tornado hardened construction methods in Texas and the rest of tornado alley; and failure of most new builders to plan or offer tornado cellars in tornado prone areas. (California and the Pacific Coast is another bowl of nuts with its own psychotically divined construction beliefs worthy of a complete thread discussion)
Planning and preparation may not make a perfect evacuation plan but public awareness, realistic drills, continuing evaluation, and contingency options can make it workable and increase survival rates.
Youve got a huge frickin river on yer doorstep. Ya wanna evacuate Portland quickly,
..learn ta swim!!!! If you take a look at the US Census: US Municipalities Over 50,000:
Ranked by 2000 Population you would see what a daunting task this is. Evacuating 1.8 million people from most of Houston, our 4th largest city with nearly four times the population of New Orleans, along with Galveston (pop. 57,247), Beaumont (pop. 113,866) and coastal cities and towns from Port Aransas to Port Charles was done with comparatively few problems and the obvious stumbling blocks opening I-45S to northbound traffic and fuel will be addressed. You cannot foretell every problem and have a viable contingency plan for it but you do learn from mistakes and oversights. Also, Texas has not been neglecting its transportation infrastructure. The Trans-Texas corridor currently in the planning stages will no doubt enjoy positive press and government impetus in the months following Rita and Katrina that it needs for passage. There is still resistance from both environmental interests and property owners (but thats another political thread).
Population density plays a larger role in evacuations of large cities than mere gross population figures and here I doubt a real solution is possible. the best one could hope for is maximum advance warning. In high density cities with geophysical limitations such as San Francisco with few exits and an equally dense outlying metro area, a decent public transportation evacuation plan is not just an option it is an absolute requirement. Should any of the BART tunnels or the Golden Gate, SF to Oakland Bay, Dunbarton, or Hayward bridges fail however, they will be swimmin with Gollnick.
This also points out why it is important to develop local and state plans and exercise, exercise, exercise. By exercising the plan though I am not being so impractical as to try and evacuate a city as a regular matter of course. Even the best logisticians use table-top scenarios and computer simulations as essential components in their planning. Mass casualty and city emergency exercises need to be done on a regular basis and should have oversight from state and federal evaluators.
But beyond this, why even evacuate for hurricanes?
Living in Japan, I went through numerous typhoons including a couple of Super Typhoons (sustained winds >130 kts). In the Pacific where typhoons are year round phenomena and there have already been 20 named typhoons in 2005, Japan experienced two Cat IV typhoons this month with relatively minor impact, minimal loss of life, no general panic, and no emergency evacuations on the magnitude seen here. Why??? Could planning and intelligent building codes play a major role??
The sea wall systems in Japan are designed to distribute the force of normal tidal flows and, to an extent, lessen the impact of storm surges. Houses are built mostly with reinforced concrete bases and walls to withstand winds and surge. Windows are reinforced and often shuttered with firmly anchored steel roll-up covers. In low lying areas, the same construction applies but unlike most of our Gulf and Atlantic coasts, houses are often built with an open lower floor design and the living areas are on the 2nd story. They also do not build on the shifting sands with a floating slab as we often do and instead drive their supports to bedrock for stability.
Costly?? Maybe. But its more effective than our haphazard building codes and cost is relative when lives are at risk. I get particularly incensed at simple things like failure to use the right fasteners in roofs everywhere; failure to use established tornado hardened construction methods in Texas and the rest of tornado alley; and failure of most new builders to plan or offer tornado cellars in tornado prone areas. (California and the Pacific Coast is another bowl of nuts with its own psychotically divined construction beliefs worthy of a complete thread discussion)
Planning and preparation may not make a perfect evacuation plan but public awareness, realistic drills, continuing evaluation, and contingency options can make it workable and increase survival rates.
- Nicolo Machiavelli ---