Market Saturation?

Locutus D'Borg said:
I don't know if the knife market is similar to the watch market. After the smartphone proliferation, experts said the watch, especially the mechanical watch, was going the way of the dinosaur. So imagine the experts' surprise when demand for watches over the last 10 years or so, especially mechanicals, skyrocketed. New demand was attributed to 1) social media spreading the word of luxury watches 2) China and India entering the buyer's market.

Anyway, just the other day the CEO of Patek Phillipe was asked about the incredible increasing demand for watches and he agreed it was happening but could not explain it.

So maybe knives are similar: social media spreads the word and many formerly 3rd world countries are in a buying mood. IDK
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^this.
 
Locutus D'Borg said:
I don't know if the knife market is similar to the watch market. After the smartphone proliferation, experts said the watch, especially the mechanical watch, was going the way of the dinosaur. So imagine the experts' surprise when demand for watches over the last 10 years or so, especially mechanicals, skyrocketed. New demand was attributed to 1) social media spreading the word of luxury watches 2) China and India entering the buyer's market.

Anyway, just the other day the CEO of Patek Phillipe was asked about the incredible increasing demand for watches and he agreed it was happening but could not explain it.

So maybe knives are similar: social media spreads the word and many formerly 3rd world countries are in a buying mood. IDK
Click to expand...

I’m not sure if this is putting a decent enough uptick in the stats, but I personally know and have observed individuals who cannot, will not (for various reasons) purchase a firearm. So instead they are feverishly buying survival gear including multiple knives, edged weapons for different tasks to create both a feeling of security (survival) and protection.

My point is it’s not just the collector/EDC/pocket jewelry hobbyist. But I also agree with the whole ‘good economy combined with increased social media/screen time’ factor. Many issues at play here apparently.

So far we have weird times of uncertainty, lack of and price increases on precious metals, supply chain issues, rises in shipping cost, lack of workers, inflation, and more buyers. Not surprising I guess.
 
"Market saturation" isn't just something to be considered in a vacuum. There is saturation at multiple different price points since there are different demands for knives at varying price points.

So are we talking about saturation generally across the entire market, or saturation for a specific segment of the market such as (just as an example) Titanium frame lock folders between $150-250.
 
rampco88 said:
I’m not sure if this is putting a decent enough uptick in the stats, but I personally know and have observed individuals who cannot, will not (for various reasons) purchase a firearm. So instead they are feverishly buying survival gear including multiple knives, edged weapons for different tasks to create both a feeling of security (survival) and protection.
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So when the crap hits the fan: they'll be the ones bringing a knife; to a gunfight...
 
Looks to me like the hard-to-get stuff is at the higher end. There are plenty of mainstream Spyderco and Benchmade knives available, unless you're looking for a very specific configuration.
 
rampco88 said:
I agree.

I was all hopped up to buy a new EDC all this week but pretty much everything on my short list was out of stock and delayed by the manufacturer. Only taking (vague) pre-orders. Thankfully early this morning I was able to score the exact Para3 I was lusting for. Think things will get worst before they improve?
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I'm thinking it will get better, it already has been improving and will continue as materials become available.
Locutus D'Borg said:
I don't know if the knife market is similar to the watch market. After the smartphone proliferation, experts said the watch, especially the mechanical watch, was going the way of the dinosaur. So imagine the experts' surprise when demand for watches over the last 10 years or so, especially mechanicals, skyrocketed. New demand was attributed to 1) social media spreading the word of luxury watches 2) China and India entering the buyer's market.

Anyway, just the other day the CEO of Patek Phillipe was asked about the incredible increasing demand for watches and he agreed it was happening but could not explain it.

So maybe knives are similar: social media spreads the word and many formerly 3rd world countries are in a buying mood. IDK
Click to expand...
Knives are a luxury market too so that makes good sense. Patek story sounds like hinderer right now.😆
 
19-3ben said:
"Market saturation" isn't just something to be considered in a vacuum. There is saturation at multiple different price points since there are different demands for knives at varying price points.

So are we talking about saturation generally across the entire market, or saturation for a specific segment of the market such as (just as an example) Titanium frame lock folders between $150-250.
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I'm saying, as of now, with the exeption of the chinese market, across the board at the higher end, we are no longer saturated, but closer to a deficite.
 
Owen K. said:
Yup. I am doubtful of shutdowns though, people are over it. I definately expect price increases and you are right the flippers are getting out of hand. What can we do though? Nothing except don't buy them. It's in the makers hands, stop doing FCFS and do lottery. Then people who actually want the knife have a chance.
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Exactly, I just simply do not support flippers, at all. Any knife company that makes a flipper - that's it man, like, you'll never see me again.

😂 No, really, I don't support folks who flip. I've always managed to find what I want at a reasonable price here on Reddit, had great experiences and folks cut me some deals! I wanted a 10V PM2, asked around for a bit, and I got it. There are folks selling vintage Spydercos for cheaper than the base model goes for! A bit of patience can get you a long way!
 
Locutus D'Borg said:
I don't know if the knife market is similar to the watch market. After the smartphone proliferation, experts said the watch, especially the mechanical watch, was going the way of the dinosaur. So imagine the experts' surprise when demand for watches over the last 10 years or so, especially mechanicals, skyrocketed. New demand was attributed to 1) social media spreading the word of luxury watches 2) China and India entering the buyer's market.

Anyway, just the other day the CEO of Patek Phillipe was asked about the incredible increasing demand for watches and he agreed it was happening but could not explain it.

So maybe knives are similar: social media spreads the word and many formerly 3rd world countries are in a buying mood. IDK
Click to expand...


One explanation is that watches stopped being a necessity and are becoming a useless luxury item, a status symbol and jewellery basically. No more $100 Seiko 5's, those are $300 now. We can see this with knives too to a lesser extent, but luckily there will always be a much, much bigger market for affordable and simple tools while boutique knives will occupy a small market share. Mostly because a watch is seen not only as a better investment, but also as a better status symbol than a knife.
 
Locutus D'Borg said:
I don't know if the knife market is similar to the watch market. After the smartphone proliferation, experts said the watch, especially the mechanical watch, was going the way of the dinosaur. So imagine the experts' surprise when demand for watches over the last 10 years or so, especially mechanicals, skyrocketed. New demand was attributed to 1) social media spreading the word of luxury watches 2) China and India entering the buyer's market.

Anyway, just the other day the CEO of Patek Phillipe was asked about the incredible increasing demand for watches and he agreed it was happening but could not explain it.

So maybe knives are similar: social media spreads the word and many formerly 3rd world countries are in a buying mood. IDK
Click to expand...

China and India have the most “new” wealth geographically. That’s who the watch market is targeting. Luxury watch sales are much higher in those countries than USA. So much so that Rolex didn’t print “4000m” on the new Sea Dweller because the number “4” is considered unlucky in China. That’s why the water resistance is 3990m

I think flippers realized that certain knife brands are a good ROI and that has, at least in some part, increased demand.
 
Ron Sabbagh said:
China and India have the most “new” wealth geographically. That’s who the watch market is targeting. Luxury watch sales are much higher in those countries than USA. So much so that Rolex didn’t print “4000m” on the new Sea Dweller because the number “4” is considered unlucky in China. That’s why the water resistance is 3990m
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Idk about those countries, but my stimulus money bought me a few ZTs, and a couple Hinderers :)
Working again now and slowly saving up for one of those ridiculously expensive Wharncliffe Eklipses. At this rate I should have one by June lmao
 
I don’t see a reason why “flipping” is to be disliked. People are selling knives willingly. Other people willingly pay their prices. It’s what drives the entire nation. People make things for a certain amount of money, make them available to multiple other parties who then make it available to even more parties for more money.

Yes, I’m sure a lot of us wish everything could be available for MSRP or lower, but a lot of what makes it valuable in the first place is the expense.

Supply does the rest.

Simply put, if there were an infinite supply of Holt Specters selling for $25 each, they would loose a lot of their desirability.
 
Personally, I’ve bought several knives expressly for the purpose of trying them out, and then sold them soon after receipt. Some of them have gone on the “auction site” for more than what I paid. Now that I have begun to accumulate a little bit of feedback here, selling in the exchange is a far preferable option, but before then, you may have seen my listings and seen me as a “flipper” regardless of true intent.
 
There is a lot of speculation going on. It comes and goes in collectible markets. Bubbles always burst. It’s happened before and it will happen again.
 
Any niche hobby becomes monetized when it's popular. Sports cards, comic books, toys, antiques just to name a few. Some will jump in, play awhile, sell off and get out. Some will stay and enjoy it for the rest of their lives.
 
I think the market has been forever changed. New business models were created to deal with the pandemic. I think the models worked and were profitable. I wonder if some companies will ever go back to production the way they were.
 
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