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Connor will win. That is the only way to set up the rematch which leads in the trilogy fight. It is all a money game.
If it were a boxing vs MMA fight, Conor would win very quickly, but Conor has never had a professional boxing match,
Floyd has never lost for 20+ years against the best in his division; he's not THAT old, and I'm certain he can still handle Conor in a straight boxing match. Floyd would NEVER have agreed to a match outside of his comfort zone, that would introduce an unknown factor, skillset-wise, from his opponent.