My thoughts on Shows...for what it's worth.

[joshsmith]

Since starting the Big Sky Show a few years ago I have gains a new perspective on the knife market. I thought I would share my perspective. These are my opinions from a show organizer and maker perspective.

From the High End Knife Perspective First...

The makers I invite tend to sell knives in what most would determine to be the higher end of the market. While organizing my show I ask each maker for customer lists that I can mail to, with the promise that those lists remain private of coarse. The most shocking thing to me is how many collectors makers in the higher end share. In fact I have noticed that there are just a few dozen collectors that do a great deal of the buying, at least from the makers I've invited. These are forged blade and stock removal makers alike. After just a couple years of doing this it is rare from me to get a new name for my mailing list.

Now obviously there are more than three dozen high end knife buyers out there. But when we begin talking about why shows are not doing so well you have to consider how many of those buyers are willing to travel for knives. It appears to me that we are really hammering the same two dozen collectors, show after show after show.

Luckily for my show the collectors have attended and bought knives. But the question becomes how many shows can these collectors go to and spend heavily.

These are the show that seem to attract the most collectors...New York, Solvang, Blade, Big Sky, AKI, Fisk Show, and Boston. Some of the other show will get some of these collectors too but it seems the high end buyer lean toward those shows.

Seems to me that shows have to be very unique and interesting to be highly successful. Other than Blade most of those shows are smaller and more personal.

I guess what it feels like is that we are just hammering the same high end collectors month after month. This is where the economy comes in. To me the economy in the last three years has not produced a great deal of new collectors. Maybe when the economy turns around we will begin to see new money. Just feels like in general we are in a new collector lull right now. Again I'm talking about shows here. I know the Internet has a great deal more buyers, new and old.

Low End Knives...i.e. under $1500 or so

I have had a hard time making and selling lower end knives lately because it is nearly impossible to compete with the talented new part time knife makers that charge 1/2 of what most full time makers charge. When you walk around blade there are very well made mosaic damascus Bowie's with ivory for $800. The ivory alone costs the maker $300. You can not survive as a full time maker on that. It is hard for new collectors to understand why it may be more beneficial to buy that same knife for $1600 from a maker with staying power. It seems to me that we are creating way more knife makers right now than collectors.

It must be very difficult for new makers that are making hunting knives to distinguish themselves. To me the Internet, knife dealers, and local events is the best way for those makers to push their work and gain popularity. Then mix in the right two or three shows.

Where I think the economy is most affecting people is in the middle class, blue collar America. The guy with a great construction business just four years ago would go to Blade, Arkansas, Oregon, or Blade West and buy $300-$800 knives. Those guys seem to have really tightened up. Many of them seem to still be buying on the Internet however they are not travelling to shows as much.

I guess I feel there is not one magic answer to fix shows. Seems like there are many different issues going on.

For me I go to shows now to mostly meet collectors and put my face out there. Yes I want to sell knives but I feel two or three shows a year spread across the country is plenty. From there I feel my time is best spent marketing right from home. For me Facebook, my website, forums, and my email list are big. Donating knives locally also gets your name out in a great way. Many of the big hunting and fishing clubs have high end donors that are blown away by our work.

These are just my opinions and I'm sure responses will vary. In the end I think things will get better with shows but some shows will not survive. Maybe many show will have to reset what they feel a successful show is. An entire sell out may not be as reasonable. Maybe good attendance, moderate sales, and educating the new buyers should be considered successful.

 

[BowieBooster]

Excellent perspective. Nice to hear such a detailed analysis from someone who is in the thick of and making a living from it.

The secondary market seems to be the "catch 22" to me. Purveyors and the internet played a big part in expanding the custom knife world, but now that times are difficult, it's not so easy to figure out. I don't think a purveyor can expect the same mark-up he did years ago, yet he has to make a profit, and often living from selling knives, so it's really hard to lower the price point. I would think that's especially true for those sitting on a large inventory purchased at "good times" prices.

Yet, with so many purveyors selling over the internet and so many older knives out there, it would seem to me that the poor purveyors may have to bear the brunt of "correcting" the market by lowering their prices. While I think that HAS to happen, it could ruin some purveyors, and could take the profit motive out of that business, resulting in fewer knives being readily available to collectors willing to pay the lower prices.

I think a maker issue you didn't mention (can't say as I blame you ) is that you risk losing the business of those two dozen collectors with bottomless pockets if you lower your prices in order to compete when selling lower end knives, because many will view that as a betrayal, i.e., not protecting "their investment."

I'd love to buy a nice Josh Smith (or Fisk, or Hanson, or Dunn, or Newton, or Hancock ...) ivory Bowie for $1,600, but I can't honestly say I've seen many of them out there at that price point. Correct me if I'm wrong, but my perspective is that you have to concentrate on the high end market because that's where your sure sales (and money) are.

This ain't gonna be easy, or pretty. My God, what would happen to prices if those deep pockets suddenly got hit like everybody else (not like I'd wish that on ANYBODY, of course). But, if this economy keeps going down, eventually that number will have to decrease, too.

 

[betzner]

Since starting the Big Sky Show a few years ago I have gains a new perspective on the knife market. I thought I would share my perspective. These are my opinions from a show organizer and maker perspective.

From the High End Knife Perspective First...

The makers I invite tend to sell knives in what most would determine to be the higher end of the market. While organizing my show I ask each maker for customer lists that I can mail to, with the promise that those lists remain private of coarse. The most shocking thing to me is how many collectors makers in the higher end share. In fact I have noticed that there are just a few dozen collectors that do a great deal of the buying, at least from the makers I've invited. These are forged blade and stock removal makers alike. After just a couple years of doing this it is rare from me to get a new name for my mailing list.

Now obviously there are more than three dozen high end knife buyers out there. But when we begin talking about why shows are not doing so well you have to consider how many of those buyers are willing to travel for knives. It appears to me that we are really hammering the same two dozen collectors, show after show after show.

Luckily for my show the collectors have attended and bought knives. But the question becomes how many shows can these collectors go to and spend heavily.

These are the show that seem to attract the most collectors...New York, Solvang, Blade, Big Sky, AKI, Fisk Show, and Boston. Some of the other show will get some of these collectors too but it seems the high end buyer lean toward those shows.

Seems to me that shows have to be very unique and interesting to be highly successful. Other than Blade most of those shows are smaller and more personal.

I guess what it feels like is that we are just hammering the same high end collectors month after month. This is where the economy comes in. To me the economy in the last three years has not produced a great deal of new collectors. Maybe when the economy turns around we will begin to see new money. Just feels like in general we are in a new collector lull right now. Again I'm talking about shows here. I know the Internet has a great deal more buyers, new and old.

Low End Knives...i.e. under $1500 or so

I have had a hard time making and selling lower end knives lately because it is nearly impossible to compete with the talented new part time knife makers that charge 1/2 of what most full time makers charge. When you walk around blade there are very well made mosaic damascus Bowie's with ivory for $800. The ivory alone costs the maker $300. You can not survive as a full time maker on that. It is hard for new collectors to understand why it may be more beneficial to buy that same knife for $1600 from a maker with staying power. It seems to me that we are creating way more knife makers right now than collectors.

It must be very difficult for new makers that are making hunting knives to distinguish themselves. To me the Internet, knife dealers, and local events is the best way for those makers to push their work and gain popularity. Then mix in the right two or three shows.

Where I think the economy is most affecting people is in the middle class, blue collar America. The guy with a great construction business just four years ago would go to Blade, Arkansas, Oregon, or Blade West and buy $300-$800 knives. Those guys seem to have really tightened up. Many of them seem to still be buying on the Internet however they are not travelling to shows as much.

I guess I feel there is not one magic answer to fix shows. Seems like there are many different issues going on.

For me I go to shows now to mostly meet collectors and put my face out there. Yes I want to sell knives but I feel two or three shows a year spread across the country is plenty. From there I feel my time is best spent marketing right from home. For me Facebook, my website, forums, and my email list are big. Donating knives locally also gets your name out in a great way. Many of the big hunting and fishing clubs have high end donors that are blown away by our work.

These are just my opinions and I'm sure responses will vary. In the end I think things will get better with shows but some shows will not survive. Maybe many show will have to reset what they feel a successful show is. An entire sell out may not be as reasonable. Maybe good attendance, moderate sales, and educating the new buyers should be considered successful.

Josh-

I have never attended your show and have never purchased one of your knives (but I will someday), primarily because of what I otherwise collect - unless you change your name to Buster. HOWEVER, I absolutely marvel at your marketing ability, your knifemaking ability - and now, at your feel for what is going on in the real world. Man, do I agree with the above, totally.

I would add that attracting new collectors is a need that is a given, but statistics show, in all areas of sales, that getting a first time buyer to repeat is easier and cheaper than attracting a new customer. This means getting the previous knife buyer back (speaking generically here), who hasn't purchased lately. Why hasn't he? You nailed it, he's a guy otherwise affected by the economy, one who would buy a high end knife perhaps once a year, if it weren't for the economy.

This all has to do with shows. Are there too many, or are they needed to attract new knife collectors? I think you are again right on in feeling that there are too many shows chasing fewer collectors.

Best,

Bob

ps: One day, I gotta hit your show, it's something on my "must do" list.

 

[joshsmith]

I think a maker issue you didn't mention (can't say as I blame you ) is that you risk losing the business of those two dozen collectors with bottomless pockets if you lower your prices in order to compete when selling lower end knives, because many will view that as a betrayal, i.e., not protecting "their investment."

Lowering prices is a tough thing to do. Luckily for myself I'm not in the position to need to lower prices. For makers having a hard time though it is a tough situation. Lowering prices would surely not help their past buyers but if the maker has to survive I guess they may not have any choice. Then becomes a question of can they lower prices and still make enough to survive any way.

I'd love to buy a nice Josh Smith (or Fisk, or Hanson, or Dunn, or Newton, or Hancock ...) ivory Bowie for $1,600, but I can't honestly say I've seen many of them out there at that price point. Correct me if I'm wrong, but my perspective is that you have to concentrate on the high end market because that's where your sure sales (and money) are.

For me right now the higher end is still very good. However that doesn't mean I don't make lower end knives too. In fact I'm taking a $1500 fancy hunter to Boston. I'm doing that because I'm well aware not all collectors going to Boston can or want to buy $8000 Bowies.

.

Thanks for your comments.

 

[joshsmith]

Thanks so much Bob. I'll look forward to having you at my show one day! See you in Boston, I hope.

 

[lwrhea]

Maybe good attendance, moderate sales, and educating the new buyers should be considered successful.

Josh,
I dont post very lengthy on here very often. Your quote is dead on in my opinion. We, as makers, really need to involve the collectors more. You, with your show, already know this and DO this, but I believe there is more that we makers in general can do. Yes, our attitude toward sales may have to be adjusted to view what once was a mediocre show as a success. But to keep attendance and sales up, we, the makers, are going to have to get the collectors excited to own and buy knives. A relatively small percentage can and will buy the high end stuff. What will get the others in that mid-range excited? I believe they have to be more involved. This level of buyer very often uses his or her knife or, at least, a select few of their collection.

I have talked to some collectors who are itching to use their knives on hog hunts, fishing outings, etc. with the makers. For instance, can you imagine the excitement it would generate for a video of some makers and collectors on a hunt to show up on youtube? The knives probably wont be the fully embellished ones we call high end, but they will be very nice users. I see a world of possibilities there. Even high end makers will want in on it (not the money, the excitement)and force themselves to make a few users, because their collectors are wanting to do this. Who would'nt get excited when the threads with video links start showing up?

I happen to believe this is exactly what will happen before long.

I saw an article a few months ago that illustrates how the collectors and makers can do just what i'm talking about. You saw it too, I'm sure. Tim Handcock and Larry Fuegan along with the author had an adventuresome outing on horseback. That article is a fine example of what we ought to be seeing more of. Lin

 

[Chuck Gedraitis Knives]

The secondary market seems to be the "catch 22" to me. Purveyors and the internet played a big part in expanding the custom knife world, but now that times are difficult, it's not so easy to figure out. I don't think a purveyor can expect the same mark-up he did years ago, yet he has to make a profit, and often living from selling knives, so it's really hard to lower the price point. I would think that's especially true for those sitting on a large inventory purchased at "good times" prices.

Yet, with so many purveyors selling over the internet and so many older knives out there, it would seem to me that the poor purveyors may have to bear the brunt of "correcting" the market by lowering their prices. While I think that HAS to happen, it could ruin some purveyors, and could take the profit motive out of that business, resulting in fewer knives being readily available to collectors willing to pay the lower prices.

Unfortunately a lot of these knives that were bought during the "good times" were already overpriced and now it is a buyers market. This causes the purveyor to lower his price and thus lowers the makers prices on the secondary market. I have seen knives for sale on purveyor websites that are lower than the makers price. Knives that used to last on websites, forums or makers tables for a few hours now sit for weeks, even months.

Attendance for shows is down because everyone is holding onto their money. Custom knives are luxury items and those things are the first to go when your budget gets tight. Collectors are still buying but they are being more selective about their purchases. I have adapted my knife making to building what will sell. I do not want to become a collector of my own knives.

With 14.9 million people unemployed finding new collectors is going to be a little tough.

 

[joshsmith]

Josh,
I dont post very lengthy on here very often. Your quote is dead on in my opinion. We, as makers, really need to involve the collectors more. You, with your show, already know this and DO this, but I believe there is more that we makers in general can do. Yes, our attitude toward sales may have to be adjusted to view what once was a mediocre show as a success. But to keep attendance and sales up, we, the makers, are going to have to get the collectors excited to own and buy knives. A relatively small percentage can and will buy the high end stuff. What will get the others in that mid-range excited? I believe they have to be more involved. This level of buyer very often uses his or her knife or, at least, a select few of their collection.

I have talked to some collectors who are itching to use their knives on hog hunts, fishing outings, etc. with the makers. For instance, can you imagine the excitement it would generate for a video of some makers and collectors on a hunt to show up on youtube? The knives probably wont be the fully embellished ones we call high end, but they will be very nice users. I see a world of possibilities there. Even high end makers will want in on it (not the money, the excitement)and force themselves to make a few users, because their collectors are wanting to do this. Who would'nt get excited when the threads with video links start showing up?

I happen to believe this is exactly what will happen before long.

I saw an article a few months ago that illustrates how the collectors and makers can do just what i'm talking about. You saw it too, I'm sure. Tim Handcock and Larry Fuegan along with the author had an adventuresome outing on horseback. That article is a fine example of what we ought to be seeing more of. Lin

Great post Lin. I don't think we can do enough when it comes to being engaged with our collectors. I think that is my my show works so well. Collectors are made to feel they are hear for fun and friendship, over knife sales and money.

Most of my collectors and I become friends, just as Larry and Tim have become friends with Ged Messinger or Phil Lobred. Ged and Phil loved their time in the Superstition Mountains with Tim and Larry. It takes big time involvement.

Thanks Lin.

 

[Kevin Jones]

I agree Josh, excellent perspective.

I remember when Jerry then you started your shows a few were warning that the small format "makers shows" would eventually have a substantial negative impact on the regional and even the large shows. Many joked, how can shows with just 20-30 collectors in attendance affect the the big boys? Well we are now seeing how it can happen.

 

[Bailey Bradshaw]

Well said Josh,

It's kind of alarming when the reality of todays market reveals itself. Sure hit me like a brick!

 

[fisk]

Good information. Yes, with the time as they are there should be some shifting from promoters. Problem is some shifting should have already been done.
With my show I have a waiting list. Each year there are always a few that cannot come because of life getting in the way, generally 2-4 people, but those just step out for one year. The waiting list guys can come in to fill the spots but only for that year there is a spot then back to the waiting list. Most of the people on the waiting list are not knife collecters. They come from other collectable fields. Some of them are now going to a few regular knife shows, which is good. By putting the new people in with the experienced collects they learn faster about collecting knives and intergate into the general knife buying public.

The economy does effect things, sure, it does what I buy and spend. My business, sales the last two years have been the best I have had, this year will top those years. There is still chicken on the bone, you just gotta figure out how to get to it.

There are several formats that can be used for shows that are not being now. I have been figuring out how to set up another type of show for the past year or better and am closer to it now. The reason I am having to figure it is there is not one done like it now that I can learn the how to from. Dont worry guys it will not interfer and just add another show. lol. The format is different.

Education is the key, getting the client and collector to know each other, understand each other is also key for longetivity. It will be interesting to see what makers fall out and they will because you cannot keep buying supplies, having the expense of show travel and time, while not selling little or nothing. Price has not as much to do with it as knowing where you are going with what you do have.

 

[betzner]

I agree Josh, excellent perspective.

I remember when Jerry then you started your shows a few were warning that the small format "makers shows" would eventually have a substantial negative impact on the regional and even the large shows. Many joked, how can shows with just 20-30 collectors in attendance affect the the big boys? Well we are now seeing how it can happen.

Kevin, I just want to make sure I correctly understand what you are saying. It seems like you are saying that the small makers' shows are impacting the regional and large shows. Frankly, I doubt the small makers' shows have had any impact whatsoever on regional or large shows. The impact on regional and large shows is from the overall economic downturn. But I may have just read this wrong?

Bob

 

[Chuck Gedraitis Knives]

Bob,
These small shows are making an impact. There must be collectors who decided not to go to blade so they could go to the Big Sky conference or to the Fisk Micro invitational show.

Josh had 12 outstanding makers each bringing something different to the table to cover all tastes.
Tim Hancock, Mathew Lerch, Bill Ruple,Owen Wood, Larry Fuegen, Harvey Dean, Juergen Steinau, John Young, Rick Dunkerley, Wade Colter, Ken Steigerwalt, and Josh Smith.

I know that some of these makers did not go to blade so they could work on knives for Josh's show.

Jerry's small show is limited to 20 collectors. He states on his website that he plans on having 10-12 pieces, some unique to his show. He has 2 other makers coming as well Don Hanson and Pete Crowl.

The collectors that go to these shows are buying, and buying expensive pieces.

 

[betzner]

Bob,
These small shows are making an impact. There must be collectors who decided not to go to blade so they could go to the Big Sky conference or to the Fisk Micro invitational show.

Josh had 12 outstanding makers each bringing something different to the table to cover all tastes.
Tim Hancock, Mathew Lerch, Bill Ruple,Owen Wood, Larry Fuegen, Harvey Dean, Juergen Steinau, John Young, Rick Dunkerley, Wade Colter, Ken Steigerwalt, and Josh Smith.

I know that some of these makers did not go to blade so they could work on knives for Josh's show.

Jerry's small show is limited to 20 collectors. He states on his website that he plans on having 10-12 pieces, some unique to his show. He has 2 other makers coming as well Don Hanson and Pete Crowl.

The collectors that go to these shows are buying, and buying expensive pieces.

Hi Chuck-

I tend to emphasize the economic impact because it is the primary impact. It's certainly not the only impact. But I imagine that the impact of current real world economics is much larger than the collectors attending the small boutique shows. If the economy were still all rosy, I betcha those who attend the small makers' shows would also be buying from the larger shows, and now maybe they are not. Back to the primary culprit - the economy.

Bob

ps: I'll give it a rest, now, LOL

 

[Sidehill Gouger]

Low End Knives...i.e. under $1500 or so

That's low end!!?? What are you guys smoking over there in Montana? Read many posts on this forum and you will find people constantly asking where to get the best price on a $10 Mora and wishing they could afford one of those crazy expensive Busse knives. Your potential customer base must be the size of the average boy scout troop. Just how many Ted Turners live in your state anyway?

 

[Chuck Gedraitis Knives]

Bob,
I agree that if the economy was better collectors would be attending more shows, including both large and small venues. Since the economy has not recovered collectors are picking and choosing the shows that they want to go to.

Just from an economic point of view, if all the knives at the Micro invitational show sell a significant amount of money will change hands, I guess somewhere in the ballpark of 20K+ and that's at the low end!

 

[Kevin Jones]

Kevin, I just want to make sure I correctly understand what you are saying. It seems like you are saying that the small makers' shows are impacting the regional and large shows. Frankly, I doubt the small makers' shows have had any impact whatsoever on regional or large shows. The impact on regional and large shows is from the overall economic downturn. But I may have just read this wrong?

Bob

That's exactly what I'm saying Bob. Though the small format maker shows like Jerry's, Josh's and 4-5 others only have 20-30 attendees, these collectors account for the purchase of A LOT of custom knives in a year (and expensive knives at that). A collector who probably spend $20K at Blade last year told me yesterday he was going to Josh's next year rather than Blade.
I expect there's quite a few others that will opt for the small over the large.

Most collectors can only attend so many shows if they attend any. If a busy collector (often the collectors who spend big $$$s have busy careers) start attending Jerry's, Tom Ferry's or Josh's show it a pretty good chance they will eliminate a larger show they have attended in the past.

I agree Bob, the overall economic downturn has hurt the regional and large shows, however that's certainly not the only thing that has hurt them. It's the INTERNET, the overall increase in the # of shows (primarily maker shows) and the shenanigans that goes on at shows that's turning collectors off to shows.

 

[fisk]

Bob, sure the ecomony is the biggee. It effects everything and certainly our shows. Small businesses are hard hit and will be hit harder it appears after the first of the year. I am a small business so I expect it but plan for it, thats why I plan a new direction for some pieces that I do.

The economy, the travel problems all effects what was normal show attendance. I can name you several shows that started out as National shows that are now regional shows and some regional shows I expect one more year out of certain ones.
As a maker I jury a show as to its potentional, much like a collector will jury a show as to the normal makers attending, do they bring what they like to purchase etc. I keep up with the current market at all the major shows wether I attend them or not just so I know what the market appears to be doing. I check with high end, low end, dealers, suppliers and ask photographers on each major show, that gives me a cross feeling of how it really went. I have done this for nearly 20 years.
Knowing this is why I started the collectors cornor at my show. Short Long term this will benifit the collector, long term it will have benifits for me as a maker. During a down time or a time when a collector wants to change his collection up this gives him as good a place as any and better than many other methods and he can do it himself by just being here. There are a few collectors cornors showing up now at other shows and that is good, it provides a service back to the collector instead of just take. I do not know if he will move a certain piece or not, but I like to be able to offer him that chance.
Course you did not get where you are in your life without having your own set of skills. Knifemakers are or at least should be able to manage a good business as well.
I learn a lot from my clients. For instance one of my show attendees business had quadrupled in the last one year, he advises fortune 500 companies on how each company can survive all of this. Don't think I did not take him aside during the year and ask questions.lol Never been to a knife show before this one, never bought anything but a kitchen knife. He came from another collectable field. He would not attend a normal knife show. A micro type show can offer him what he needs. But,I digress.
Do small shows such as this effect large shows, yes, but then again, many other variables do too.

 

[betzner]

Hey, today's my day to try and contradict everyone, don't start hittin' me with facts, Jerry!

Seriously, I realize all the impacts. In the last couple of years, I've tried to bring a balance to these arguments on what is impacting knife sales most, whether shows, internet, etc. In actuality, I am a "glass is half full" kinda guy who doesn't really know more than anyone else, but we all have opinions.

Incidentally, I think you and Josh are the real innovators that other makers need to be looking to for inspiration, leadership - and marketing ability!

Best,

Bob

 

[fisk]

Bob, you make me laugh. Insert funny icon here.