My reply from a similar thread on knifeforums:
Well, some trends have already revealed themselves. The
knife industry has grown and become pretty competitive, and
there's pretty big money to be made. The manufacturers, in
the fight to distinguish themselves from each other, are
doing a few things:
- New locks for folders. A much overdue trend, since the
linerlock is simply a failure in my opinion. The rolling
lock is getting a face lift and some polish, the integral
lock is moving to factory folders, and the Axis is showing
much promise.
- Blade Shapes Get Goofy: Really distinct (but often
beautiful and/or efficient) blade shapes are another way to
distinguish a knife. Goofy shapes, in the tradition of the
folding hobbit, Spyderco Khalsa, and Cold Steel Scimitar
knives should continue. But Benchmade isn't joining the
fray, so it'll be interesting to see how much of a foothold
this brings.
- New steels. Spyderco ushered in 440V somewhat quietly a
couple years ago. Benchmade has gone retro, with M-2
products (adopted by Bud Nealy also). Other manufacturers
are threatening to look at A-2. Overall, steel is a fruitful
place for a manufacturer to look to distinguish itself, and
the CPM steels will hopefully be at the top of the list. In
the meantime, we here on the forums are leading the charge
to look at cobalt alloys...
- Tactical fixed-blade trends continue. Benchmade's
concealment sheath for their new fixed blade is a sign that
fixed blades will not only stay "tactical", but become more
so. Boker's Nealy knife says the same thing. The
manufacturers are continuing the tactical trend, and
distinguishing themselves on this front by improving on the
sheath, an area that's been overlooked for too long.
- JOE'S DESIRED TREND: Extend this sheath innovation to
light utility knives.
- JOE'S DESIRED TREND: Manufacturers should look to
distinguish themselves based on edge geometry. Thin-edged,
high-performance edge geometry for both fixed blades and
folders are my wish. This area becomes even more fruitful if
the manufacturers follow the "new steels" trend above. A
thin-edged utility knife in 420V that would outcut
everything and hold its edge forever, that's where I'd
look. I believe there's a big untapped market for people who
want a light utility knife that will outcut everything, stay
sharp for a long time, but doesn't need to pry or otherwise
be really tough (ala Cliff Stamp's and other's pet projects
here).
- Tactical Folders Wear a Tuxedo: leading-edge knife buyers
are weary of the tactical folder look, although they
continue to like the idea of a readily-deployable,
one-hand-opening hard-use folder. Over the next couple
years, "Tacticals" with bolsters and nice handle materials
may become more popular, probably with non-ATS-34 steel
also.
- What Will Benchmade Do? Benchmade isn't always the
absolute leader when it comes to bringing out a new feature
(e.g., new locks, new steel, etc.). However, once Benchmade
does come out with a feature, it often sets a
trend. Benchmade can take a feature from obscurity to
you-better-have-it-to-compete very quickly. This year,
Benchmade is setting itself apart with its lock, and this
should be good for a couple years as they retro-fit old
models to use the new lock. Hopefully, they will also
re-examine their experience with M-2, and either restructure
it, or push hard to look at other steels. Blade shape wise,
I'm not sure where Benchmade is, I don't expect them to go
with the blade shapes I've dubbed "goofy", so I'm not sure
where they'll be going -- hopefully, to full flat grinds and
high performance edges.
Joe
jat@cup.hp.com
[This message has been edited by Joe Talmadge (edited 05 January 1999).]
