O.T. The Avian Flu- One Case of Human to Human In S.E. Asia...

Carter Leffen

Carter Leffen

Joined
Sep 21, 2005
Messages
105
Ladies and Gentlemen, Please read and consider this "Early Warning..."

It's like watching the approach of a train wreck. No way to warn the crew in the engine's cab that the bridge is out, and not enough time or distance to stop... That's how I see it...

I've always lived by the very simple philosophy of "Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best." If you do, you'll never be disappointed, but MAYBE, you might be pleasantly surprised...

I have tried to study this situation from every angle. Finding the proper drugs to protect my family- there are none currently existing or available... I've thought of finding a piece of ground, and defending it against all comers, while doing subsistance farming... Joining in a Kibbutz style community... Even some other things I'm NOT going to talk about here...

Tamiflu and Relenza are being stockpiled by many of the world's governments. They are for prophylactic use- to keep at bay, but not cure or prevent. Use of either drug mandates one dose per day, for a period in excess of two and a quarter YEARS, to weather the anticipated THREE waves of the flu, that will NOT begin and end each time, but will be possibly concurrent...

The carriers of this pandemic are NOT affected by the agent (Avian Flu, N5H1, or its human to human mutation). In other words, the massive slaughter of fowl in Asia was NOT the result of sick birds... It was a preventative action by concerned and affected governments...

Human to human contagion is believed to have already occured in at least one instance in Southeast Asia... This means that the mechanism for invasion of the "virgin field" population- i.e., all of humanity, has begun...

There is NO immunity to this strain. We do not know how virulent it will be... Judging the strength of this agent is, at present, impossible... Saying how many will die, with so little data, is whistling in the wind- or past the graveyard...

Original estimates, more than half a year ago, pointed to casualties going from half a billion, to half the known population... NOBODY knows... That's just part of the problem... We humans LIVE on probablilities... Check your own experience...
Can I pass this car in time? Should I bother watching my favorite sports team- especially as they may lose? The threads of possibility/probablility are endlesss and varied...

Last night I heard on Fox News Channel what the U.S. Government is worried about... Even though 24 MILLION doses of Tamiflu have been ordered, that's less than 240,000 doses for ten days, or 24,000 doses for 100 days... Remember as I said above, the organism will come in three waves, covering a distance in time, in the best of all possible worlds, of 450 DAYS...

As a public relations panacea, this is nothing less than ridiculous.

The U.S. Government is worried that if only 2 MILLION become hospitalized, the medical establishment will be overwhelmed, and collapse. There WILL be riots where people try to get help. In the short run, it's believed that there will be none...

Food will be in short supply- or not existant. It is because of "on time delivery," and the size of warehousing, that no supermarket has more than three days food on it's shelves... If the transportation system collapses due to the governments plans to use the military to enforce quarantining affected areas (ludicrous as birds that carry the organism are unaffected...), riots WILL break-out when food becomes more scarce than moon rocks...

Oh, and forget gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, coal, natural gas, or propane... Get the picture? Even nuclear power plants require outside sources of power in order to remain online...

In the dark, cold, hungry, sick (or afraid of being/becoming sick), Humanity's thin veneers of society and civilization WILL disappear in a very short time... No parent will be able to ignore the crying of their hungry children... Where this happens, the Laws of Man will be forgotten- and SURVIVAL will become the ONLY law...

Remember Thomas Malthus in college? Or "Soylent Green?" We're nearly there... A tiny microorganism may well do what threats of nuclear war, terrorist attacks, meteors, comets, or earth changes were envisioned by "those in the know..."

It's possible that we may be seeing what has toppled Humanity from its perch, time after time... Climbing up, only to be knocked back down into the dirt. Again, and again, and again...

With the frequency of known pandemics, this makes more sense than "global warming" as a vehicle for societal devolution... Much quicker too...

All of humanity will not die. Or if it does, I'll certainly be surprised... Life, as we know it, will certainly change... For those that DO survive, life in the depths of the Dark Ages will look wonderful...

Unless...

The Internet offers a unique opportunity for people to communicate, plan, and implement actions of many kinds... Perhaps it's too late for a national response, but small groups of people, with the right skillsets, could survive, even thrive, given their abilities, supplies, locations, ect...

As an example, if you're near a Moo U., your chances are better. Why? Who ELSE knows how to farm? And do it efficiently? The people there are worth their weight in platinum... Protect and guard them, AND their stocks of grain, veggies, and various chemicals...

Bring in doctors/nurses/technicians, plumbers, carpenters, EVERY skill that makes survival possible, AND those skills that can be tapped to barter and trade... Welcome those with skills that are only "living" examples... Artisans from loom to bowyer... Welders, sword and knife makers... Blacksmiths/farriers... Chemists. Historians... Men and women, with their children, who will fight, and if necessary die, to keep their communities alive and thriving...

Feudalism is what I'm suggesting. Isolation, initially, may be the ONLY possibility... As time passes, and the disease ceases to be a problem, there would be the possiblilty that a more representative form of government could come about...

However, what we're talking about, is survival... Some, possibly MANY, will not. The chaos that could happen, will be anything from "inconvenient" to "catastrophic." What was experienced in hurricanes Katrina and Rita, might be relegated to "insignificant."

Look at history. How did our predecesors survive? For many, it was "dumb luck." Being in the right place, at the right time... For others, it was actually doing "something." Whether moving, defending their areas, or trying whatever came to mind- and somehow, it worked...

We know more than we did in 1918, or during the times of the Plague... Are we "smarter?" Time will tell...

To ignore the impending of this, or any other threat to Humanity's survival, is not wise. Those with the resources should begin recruiting people of like mind, and as wide and varied skillsets as possible...

There are techniques for growing crops and veggies under snow during the winter... Power can be supplied by water, or steam, or wind... The possiblilities are great- only if people begin NOW to plan and implement them...

It's up to whoever reads this, to at least think and consider their options. It costs nothing to think. Little to link-up with others on the 'Net... Conversation costs little, yet may yield much...

What do I plan? I'll "talk" with others on the 'Net, and see who's interested... I'll talk to men in my local Rod and Gun Club... Talk to other veterans... Talk to medical professionals, farmers, mechanics... See if there are any swordsmen/women, martial artists, or military historians or buffs around... See if anybody has and knows how to use, looms, forges, and anything else that was common more than a century ago... Look around and see if there are any herbalists or kitchen "witches" nearby...

Time may be in short supply, but I don't want to die with a whimper... I want people to go on living, with better than a subsistance future... I'd settle for the Medieval, no question... Living cold, dirty, hungry in a cave? Nope. That's not for me...

Well, it's all up to you, now... Take me seriously, or at least the situation seriously... Think, talk, and if you deem it, the coming pandemic, to be a serious threat- do something...

Good Luck. I can provide suggestions, if you're interested. If you want to "talk," PM me...

__________________________________________________
__

I'm a good shot with my Armalite AR-15 A4 (C), a wizard with my Benelli M1014s, "adequate" with my three bows, moderately dangerous with my ATrims (DN1506 and AT1542)- to myself, if nobody else, and a fan of the knife, and use, of the Khukuri...

I am an honorably discharged Vietnam veteran.

I have garden seed stock that's prepollinated, that is NOT hybrid, enough for 43 acres. Several hundred pounds of legume seed... Some rudimentary medical supplies, including 3 birthing kits...

I taught history and political science, and love military history...

I WILL fight for the "right" outfit.

If you want to talk, PM me here...

Good Luck, take care, stay safe, and take nothing for granted...

Carter
 
Carter, there is some wisdom here. I have lived through SARS in Hong Kong and am preparing for the worst again.

However, some of your assumptions are not commonly shared. Tamiflu's pharmacological action (I am a trained pharmacologist) should be fairly effective irrespective of the strain. It is not purely prophylactic and can combat an active infection, as long as it's taken early, within a day or two of symptom onset. The typically recommended course is not a pill a day for three years, but two a day for five days (a single packet of 10).

Irrespective of the details, I agree it is worth taking preventative measures as we head into 'flu season. Maybe some of my experience during SARS can help. I was in the middle of it. People in my office building died, others were infected. My workstation was disinfected by men in white hazmat suits more than once.

First, let's get it in perspective. There's no guarantee that the outbreak will occur this year, in the next five years, or even ten.

Your town might not even be affected. When the Big One comes, the WHO expects only a few million deaths. Most will occur in Asia and outside the USA. People living outside urban areas are more likely to be safe.

Rather than hope for a vaccine or depend on drugs, your best bet is to reduce the probability of infection. Minimise gatherings of friends and family. Avoid contact with potentially infected people. Implement and enforce rules in the home, school and office, such as making people check their temperature before coming to work and those who have a fever must stay home. Anyone with a sniffle or cough who does not have a temperature, should wear a mask when they have to be around others. Masks do not protect the wearer, but people will wear them out of fear. I once saw a man on the subway at the height of SARS pull aside his mask to cough.

Masks, disinfectant, drugs and other supplies will sell out quickly due to panic buying. Here, even baby wipes sold out because people needed to clean their hands. Buy in early. I now use my surplus N95 masks for their intended purpose - sanding and grinding!

From experience, people won't 'run to the hills' until the time for running has passed and the governments have locked down the borders and restricted movement. Most people also won't risk losing their jobs by not coming to work. If you have to go to work, remove your shoes outside your house, change clother once you are inside the door, disinfect your hands and eat and sleep separately from your family. It's a PITA, but you do it.

As the outbreak occurs, it is very important to collate and analyse published statistics, because governments will obscure and playdown statistics in order to maintain law and order. I wrote a newsletter that was widely read and was the only analyst I knew of to accurately call the date and mortality peak of the epidemic in the territory. I did this by projecting the rate of new infections, calculating the number of current infections, deducting the number of deaths and recoveries and such. That was no mean feat, because the government published only daily numbers of current infections and culmulative deaths, and did not issue timeseries data.

With some planning and by keeping a cool head, I found it was possible to get through a major pandemic without totally changing one's life.
 
Hi "ZDP-189,"

I appreciate your expertise in the SARS arena. It must have been tough, to say the least...

I've only got what news sources, including the U.S. Government, saying what they'll do, as well as half of the Western world... Things like arenas and sports stadiums for triage and hospital space (if covered), and airplane hangers for morgues don't seem out of the realm of possibility...

Each news cycle seems to bring new information that had not been considered, or is being confirmed...

As an example, the birds carry the Avian Flu, but are not subject to it. THAT was a new one... Another was the bit about there being at least one known case of human to human contagion... Both of these items have come in the last 20 hours... It would almost seem as if the "facts" or "factoids" are being dolled out to us...

SARS, we've recently learned, is possibly derived from bats. Is it bat to human, or is it bat to human to human? Whatever, we're not as safe, anywhere, as we once thought we were...

During the time of Europe's bout with bubonic plague, communications were limited, as was the knowledge of how to combat the plague- let alone it's cause... (The Inquisition, and it's attempt to exterminate the witch's familiar, the cat, allowed rats to multiply to astonishing levels, bringing about the disease...)

We're not, nor may we ever be, sure as to the cause of the Avian Flu, or H5N1. Regardless, we face an uncertain future... Bird to human/human to human, swine to human/human to human, and whatever else is out there waiting in the wings, still creates problems that will eventually get "here."

How we face them does matter. My own government says that if there are two million ill in the medical establishments, hospitals will collapse under the needs of those affected. I'll stop here, rather than repeating my previous post...

I've talked to some of our own health professionals, and they are less than sanguine as to the near future... I posed the same arguments that you did, as to Tamiflu and Relenza. Unfortunately, they were neither impressed, nor optimistic. Several are making plans for their own families...

Sir, I don't question your honor, knowledge, or experience. I respect you, and your opinions. However, in the scheme of things, the actions, or inactions of governments, may well influence the actions of many... Whether it be propaganda to ease the minds of people, or agitprop to maintain control of the same populace due to their fears, I don't know... Every government has exercised it's franchise of maintaining it's positon of authority.

We, as individuals, may never know the cause, or be able to effectively weather the crisis that approaches... We must take all reasonable precautions to protect ourselves, our families, our communities, and if possible, our nations...

Perhaps the best way to do this, is through discourse, as we ourselves have done in this thread...

I wish you, and your family, safety, good health, and long life...

Take care, stay safe, and be well...

Carter
 
Gives 'em bat wings, IIRC.

Scary stuff, regardless.

If the sources can be believed. I don't mean the people who have posted to this thread.
 
Well better bat wings than duck wings. I mean can you imagine a Zombie Duck? Think he'd call Duuurba?
 
Boys,
I believe it is high time to get that practice shooting skeet.

Those zombie manbirds don't have a chance.

Wait a minute... can you wrap a zombie manbird in bacon and bake it? How long and how high do you cook it so that it kills the zombie/bird virus?

Oh yeah, zombie is dead meat... nevermind.

I think I need to go invest in an autoloader with an extended tube.
 
SamuraiDave said:
Boys,

Wait a minute... can you wrap a zombie manbird in bacon and bake it? How long and how high do you cook it so that it kills the zombie/bird virus?

Oh yeah, zombie is dead meat... nevermind.
Click to expand...

Hmm well the best beef is aged beef, and I rarely eat meat that isn't dead. I wonder if we cook it to 155 or so (Done to kill anything in it) after hanging it in the barn for a couple of nights...

Sorry Guys we aren't really poking fun at the flu, it's kinda traditional to through a zombie line into a thread.
 
ZDP-189

Thank you for your excellent response post to Carter's alarm. It is very important we consider Carter's possible projections because there are many practical measures we should be doing now, in a time of health and relative stability. ZDP-189, ( I really feel like addressing you as 'friend' because your conversation was the kind of communication people have when they care.)
step into our Cantina often and see if the pinball machines are working properly.

Carter has startled me into realizing I need to get caught up on fundementals around my own home. Thanks for that.

If an asteroid hits Earth, a nuke goes off in New York, Yellowstone mega volcano finally blows, (or Ranier in the Pacific Northwest) California drops into the ocean, global warming melts the poles, raises ocean water level and creates a ice age= Killing us with this or several or all possibilities, you guys still will not be able to buy my nickel plated model 57 Smith and Wesson revolver.


munk
 
Carter Leffen said:
Ladies and Gentlemen, Please read and consider this "Early Warning..."
. . .
I have tried to study this situation from every angle. Finding the proper drugs to protect my family- there are none currently existing or available... I've thought of finding a piece of ground, and defending it against all comers, while doing subsistance farming... Joining in a Kibbutz style community... Even some other things I'm NOT going to talk about here...

Tamiflu and Relenza are being stockpiled by many of the world's governments. They are for prophylactic use- to keep at bay, but not cure or prevent. Use of either drug mandates one dose per day, for a period in excess of two and a quarter YEARS, to weather the anticipated THREE waves of the flu, that will NOT begin and end each time, but will be possibly concurrent...
Click to expand...

Already addressed.

The carriers of this pandemic are NOT affected by the agent (Avian Flu, N5H1, or its human to human mutation). In other words, the massive slaughter of fowl in Asia was NOT the result of sick birds... It was a preventative action by concerned and affected governments...
Click to expand...

That is incorrect. Avian influenza is a massive killer of poultry and other infected birds.

Human to human contagion is believed to have already occured in at least one instance in Southeast Asia... This means that the mechanism for invasion of the "virgin field" population- i.e., all of humanity, has begun...
Click to expand...

That is incorrect. The threat of a pandemic would arise if there are enough infections of humans with avian influenza and "ordinary" flu that a mutated virus arises with the characteristics of both -- the ease of transmittal of "ordinary" flu and the deadliness of avain flu. As is stands, avian flu is weakly contagious to humans.

There is NO immunity to this strain. We do not know how virulent it will be... Judging the strength of this agent is, at present, impossible... Saying how many will die, with so little data, is whistling in the wind- or past the graveyard...[/quite]

All true since the strain is not known to exist at this time. Odds are, it will exits at some time, so preparation should begin. We seem to differ on what preparation would be. You say it's too late for anythign but reversion to feudalism. I think your just wrong.

Original estimates, more than half a year ago, pointed to casualties going from half a billion, to half the known population... NOBODY knows... That's just part of the problem... We humans LIVE on probablilities... Check your own experience...
Click to expand...

Our only experience to compare is the 1918-1919 pandemic that had a fatality rate of 2.5% in the U.S. for those infected (1/4 of population), killing 675,000. Of course, unlike today, there were no paliative drugs, medical care was relatively primitive, and medical infrastructure was a tiny fraction of what it is today.

Even though 24 MILLION doses of Tamiflu have been ordered, that's less than 240,000 doses for ten days, or 24,000 doses for 100 days... Remember as I said above, the organism will come in three waves, covering a distance in time, in the best of all possible worlds, of 450 DAYS...

As a public relations panacea, this is nothing less than ridiculous.
Click to expand...

Not enough doses to make me happy, but not nearly as bad as you conclude.

The U.S. Government is worried that if only 2 MILLION become hospitalized, the medical establishment will be overwhelmed, and collapse. There WILL be riots where people try to get help. In the short run, it's believed that there will be none...
Click to expand...

If it is as bad as 1918-1919, when 200,000 died in the U.S. in October, 1918, alone, it will be bad. There were piles of bodies. medical facilities and personnel were absolutely overwlemed. But civilization did not colapse then. The trains ran. People went to work.

If the transportation system collapses due to the governments plans to use the military to enforce quarantining affected areas (ludicrous as birds that carry the organism are unaffected...), riots WILL break-out when food becomes more scarce than moon rocks...

Oh, and forget gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, coal, natural gas, or propane... Get the picture? Even nuclear power plants require outside sources of power in order to remain online...
Click to expand...

Why would the government cut off the movement of food and fuel? Turn off interstate gas and oil pipelines? They didn't do such things in 1918-1919. Are they really that idiotic and heartless. Presumably, even if they a power-mad despots, they would want something to rule.

In the dark, cold, hungry, sick (or afraid of being/becoming sick), Humanity's thin veneers of society and civilization WILL disappear in a very short time... No parent will be able to ignore the crying of their hungry children... Where this happens, the Laws of Man will be forgotten- and SURVIVAL will become the ONLY law...
Click to expand...

Leningrad - 800 days. Death/ Starvation. Russian cold. Year after year. Civilization, such as it is, went on in conditions worse than those you posit.

I am old enough to have survived many predicted ends of civiilization. It sold, and will sell, lots of books and supplies. Every single person who predicted the END from "A-Bombs, The Coming Global Currency Colapse, the Coming Ice Age (Remember that one?), etc. convinced many to be very serious about preparing for TEOTWAWKI. No sale.
Click to expand...
 
This is the time to get in on the ground floor, (if you'll pardon the pun) on the fast moving fallout shelter market.

Thomas Linton is accurate and spot on, (yawn) but paranoia doesn't care about that- this is a great time to be in the business of providing emergency home shelters.

Not a bad time for flash light and battery manufacturers either.

edit, yeah, I know I'm mostly kidding...except I betcha bunkers are coming back into vogue.


munk
 
It's a "cyclone shelter" in Kansas, and often a place to keep canned food. :thumbup: I lived on a farm in Nevada that had one, though I never heard of a twister there -- big steel doors that locked from inside with a monster bar. 'Course, it was within light-up-the-sky range from the Nevada Testing Range. Mom made me promise real serious never to lock myself in there.

A friend in OK City tells me that several companies will dig a hole in your garage floor and install a vault with stout steel doors, ventialtion, emergency lighting, and ( if you pay extra) fold-down bunks and toilet facilties. Amazing how few new homes in that area have basements.

My cousin bought a home in Pacoima with a fallout shelter in the back yard. He uses it for extra storage. I don't know how it would work in an earthquake. Any way, eventually it'll be under the Pacific the way things are going.
 
Up here in T.O. everybody gets the flu once or twice a year. The economy takes a hit, but there's no panic in the streets. SARS was different. It affected almost nobody, but Toronto went from 'Hollywood North' to plague town in two weeks. Why was this? Panic.
 
UmmmGuys,

If you need something closer to home to worry about...do a web search on The Berkley Pit...

According to the experts...2010..it will overflow and dump a bunch of nasty stuff in the Missouri River Drainage...which means everything east and south of Montana will be affected...including the lands that draw water from the Missouri...will basically die...from arsenic poisoning...

Or you could look at the new cases of MRSA that killed three kids in Chicago...

There's a bunch of stuff out there to freak out about...

COwboy up folks..this ain't about us..its about our kids...

SHane
 
Hi Thomas,

As far as we know, H5N1 has NOT yet mutated to the state of a pandemic strain. Here are some FAQs, (just a few- there are more than 1.6 million links), and some very detailed works.

First, the FAQs:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_15/en/

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/influenza/avian_e.html

Now, for information on pandemics:

http://www.health.gov.au/internet/wcms/publishing.nsf/Content/health-avian_influenza-index.htm

http://www.health.gov.au/internet/wcms/publishing.nsf/Content/phd-pandemic-influenza.htm

IF H5N1 does mutate to a virulent human to human strain, it will be catastrophic. Remember, when 1918's version of Avian Flu hit, we didn't have such a widespread transportation system, nor was it nearly as fast...

Also note, some bird types are less susceptible to H5N1... Migratory birds, in particular, seem to be more hearty... Yes, chickens and domestic birds are more prone to devastating responses to the virus. However, such birds don't travel much, do they? Migrating birds carry the virus far and wide... Now as far west as Romania and Turkey...

Yes, Thomas, H5N1 is weak now. It hasn't mutated- yet. Many health professionals are afraid that it WILL mutate. To them, it's not a question of "if," but of "when."

Thomas, I don't know "why" the government will do, or not do, anything... After looking at Katrina and Rita, the government is looking to the military to quarantine citys and geographic locations. This means nothing outside of aid going in, and nothing going out... If you close down areas, truck and rail transport may well be curtailed. The government has not yet established it's ground rules, let alone rules of engagement...

No, I don't believe that the pipelines will be shut down. Remember, please, how much fuel transport does go overland... Now, what would happen to the folks that mine coal, crack and distil petroleum products (refineries), drive trucks, run trains, fly planes, ect.?

Ever hear of the term, "Typhoid Mary?" Some of the birds migrating from Asia are such- carriers... People can be carriers too...

Even if there are only three waves in the pandemic, there is always the possibility of the virus not going away, or becoming dormant. There's always the possibility that it could further mutate... Look how the latest strain of Tuberculosis is drug resistant... There are other diseases, and viruses out there that are either drug resistant, or have no agent to end their cycles, or "cure" humans...

I'm not trying to panic anyone, or bring specious arguments into play, Thomas. Being forewarned, is being forearmed. Some specialists say that the mutation could take only weeks, others years. WE JUST DON'T KNOW...

I'd say it's best to keep a weather eye on what is going on elsewhere in the world... The CDC may be able to give some kind of warning, but they don't have the antiviral drug that can handle the virus when it mutates. NOBODY DOES. Nobody knows what it will mutate into... Will they have the time to develop such a medicine? Will they be able to produce enough of it in time to make a difference in how many might perish?

Who knows?

Sifting through the info that deluges the Internet is difficult to impossible, at best. At least making the attempt might bring something useful.

Oh, and Leningrad... Yeah, the histories show that it was BAD... However, the pandemic, if it does occur, won't need 800 days... It won't be limited to one city, and there will be no besiegers or besieged. There will only be the living and the dead... And maybe too many of the dead to be buried...

On a program last night on Discovery HD, they told the story of London, from 42 or 43 BCE to the present. In the telling, they mentioned the "Black Death." Only fire stopped it's spread... Simple fire... And that was from a disease carried by rats...

What do you do for a disease that can be transported by bats (SARS), or birds (Avian Flu)? Or worse, people to people? There are protocols for diseases that can be stopped or cured. What about those that, as yet, have no cure?

Quarantine... Don't know about the rest of the world, but I think it's been a long time since this country had a quarantine...

Again, N5H1 has not yet, as far as we know, mutated. Until it does, we do have time to think, prepare, and ready our selves to survive...

It's not a tornado, nor does it mean you need a fallout shelter, or a panic room... It IS a potential threat that should be carefully, assiduously, monitored...

Of Tamiflu and Relenza, their makers admit that they are prophylactic in nature. They are not cures. The supplies are limited, and disappearing fast... They are also horribly expensive... Great Britain has already admitted that they have hopes for only a limited number of "critical" people being protected... I don't remember the number of doses they've contracted for, but it's not nearly the size of the US's buy, which is now at 24 million doses.

The USA, Australia, Great Britain, Japan, France, Canada, and a few others have made the largest buys. New Zealand is planning a nationwide quarantine from the rest of the world, should Avian Flu (in the mutated form) appear to be imminent...

If governments are seriously worried, we should be too. Katrina and Rita showed that we as individuals would be better off fending for ourselves, rather than depending upon governments...

Well, this is a better post, preparation wise, than my last, but I still expect to get hammered. Perhaps it will cause more people to keep an eye on the news, and to steal a line from somebody else, "Something wicked, this way comes..."

Respects to all...

Carter
 
Carter,

We've been there and done that, yet here we are.

In 535 a volcano exploded in what is now Indonesia. The force was estimated as billions of kilotons TNT equivalent. The material blown into the air significantly lowered world temperature. Crops failed. The cold, damp weather allowed the first escape of the Plague from Africa. Three waves of Plague went round the world in about 10 years. Best gestimate is 1/3 of the world population died from the Plague in that ten years.

The Plague returned to Europe and Asia several more times. Lots of folks died from a disease that is now trivial in significance. (Actually, many, many more died over the years from Small Pox and sepsis. Again, "regular" flu kills 40,000/yr. in the U.S. alone.)

After the first great Plague pandemic, the Eastern Roman Empire promptly fell -- AFTER 900 years. (The greater Pax Romana was already over a certury dead from complex factors like demographics, economics, and poor political judgment.)

Your dire warnings are predicted on everything going wrong at every point for most everyone but an unspecified few who will order society on a feudal model and move along. That does not seem realistic to me. (If it were, got swords, carve a mean wooden spoon, and know how to make soap from lard and wood ashes.) For example, I think it unlikely that the government will deploy the army to starve the polpulation to death. You apparently find that a realistic possibility because it is inherent in your calculations of what might happen.

Historians love to play "What if." However, I cannot be about ordering my life on the basis of the worst possible scenario. The probable problems are bad enough.

Results may very by user.
 
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