Happy Hippo
Gold Member
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2022
- Messages
- 1,705
I've often wondered if Buck says that they make 1,000 of a certain knife, how many will exist in the future? There are a lot of variables,
1) Usage: This will be a function of time and the knife's likely severity of use. It will be a non-linear rate as a person probably slows down on the usage of a certain knife over time. Knives that have been worn down are more likely to eventually not be used. Fancy knives are less likely to see hard usage than the worker bees.
2) Maintenance: Related to 1), knives that are sharpened alot are going to wear out faster. There is a confounding factor of whether a person makes use of the reblading services offered by Buck. I suspect most don't. Knives that have been oiled, stored, and cleaned properly are more likely to live a longer life.
3) Environmental: Also, related to 1). Knives that have been stored or used in harsh environments are more likely to get corroded or suffer a performance decline. People may just decide to throw badly corroded knives in the trash.
4) Loss: There will be an attrition rate due to people losing their knives in various ways. Some might be recovered and used by someone else. Others may now be houses for mollusks at the bottom of a lake. Some knives will be accidentally or intentionally thrown in the trash. There are countless scenarios on how someone may lose a knife.
5) Personal Circumstances: Someone who enjoyed the use of a knife may have become unable to do so. This could happen due to death, illness, or a host of reasons. Those knives may find the garbage bin if someone else has taken over as custodian of the knife.
6) Obsolescence: Some people want to use different knives as newer technologies come out. Their old knives may be discarded and lost forever.
7) Collectability: Knives that are collectible are likely to sit in knife collector's collection or passed on to another collector. Those knives are also more likely to be lightly used, if used at all, and maintained. Those knives may have no fear of extinction. Another confounding factor is at what point do mass produced knives, that have suffered a lot of population loss, become collectible?
8) Manufacturing: Some models will get a new life as new production is injected into the population. Discontinuation of a model or models that have undergone significant change may make the preexisting knives more collectible.
All of these variables are, for sure, a function of time. And I'm sure I didn't list them all. There will be a cumulative loss of population, probably in a non-linear manner.
My limited experience, taking slipjoints as an example but it would apply to other knife types too, is that the black sawcut workhorses of yesteryear are very hard to locate in pristine condition. The blade wells and springs are rusty, the blades have been tortured with improper sharpening, the boxes are lost, the springiness is gone, the scales are cracked or marred, the shields are worn or missing, etc. But I can get a special edition knife where only 100 were made 40 years ago relatively easy (most of the time). It might just be, depending on how all the variables listed above pan out, that the most common knives at one time become the most scarce in the future. This would indicate that a knife collector might be wise to put more modern common knives in the collection. He might not be able to see any benefit, depending on where he his in the progress of life (for me, it's too late, but I do it anyway), but the future will be grateful.
1) Usage: This will be a function of time and the knife's likely severity of use. It will be a non-linear rate as a person probably slows down on the usage of a certain knife over time. Knives that have been worn down are more likely to eventually not be used. Fancy knives are less likely to see hard usage than the worker bees.
2) Maintenance: Related to 1), knives that are sharpened alot are going to wear out faster. There is a confounding factor of whether a person makes use of the reblading services offered by Buck. I suspect most don't. Knives that have been oiled, stored, and cleaned properly are more likely to live a longer life.
3) Environmental: Also, related to 1). Knives that have been stored or used in harsh environments are more likely to get corroded or suffer a performance decline. People may just decide to throw badly corroded knives in the trash.
4) Loss: There will be an attrition rate due to people losing their knives in various ways. Some might be recovered and used by someone else. Others may now be houses for mollusks at the bottom of a lake. Some knives will be accidentally or intentionally thrown in the trash. There are countless scenarios on how someone may lose a knife.
5) Personal Circumstances: Someone who enjoyed the use of a knife may have become unable to do so. This could happen due to death, illness, or a host of reasons. Those knives may find the garbage bin if someone else has taken over as custodian of the knife.
6) Obsolescence: Some people want to use different knives as newer technologies come out. Their old knives may be discarded and lost forever.
7) Collectability: Knives that are collectible are likely to sit in knife collector's collection or passed on to another collector. Those knives are also more likely to be lightly used, if used at all, and maintained. Those knives may have no fear of extinction. Another confounding factor is at what point do mass produced knives, that have suffered a lot of population loss, become collectible?
8) Manufacturing: Some models will get a new life as new production is injected into the population. Discontinuation of a model or models that have undergone significant change may make the preexisting knives more collectible.
All of these variables are, for sure, a function of time. And I'm sure I didn't list them all. There will be a cumulative loss of population, probably in a non-linear manner.
My limited experience, taking slipjoints as an example but it would apply to other knife types too, is that the black sawcut workhorses of yesteryear are very hard to locate in pristine condition. The blade wells and springs are rusty, the blades have been tortured with improper sharpening, the boxes are lost, the springiness is gone, the scales are cracked or marred, the shields are worn or missing, etc. But I can get a special edition knife where only 100 were made 40 years ago relatively easy (most of the time). It might just be, depending on how all the variables listed above pan out, that the most common knives at one time become the most scarce in the future. This would indicate that a knife collector might be wise to put more modern common knives in the collection. He might not be able to see any benefit, depending on where he his in the progress of life (for me, it's too late, but I do it anyway), but the future will be grateful.
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I'm talking more about having the collection, not necessarily its value.