Predictions for 2009

Keith Montgomery

Keith Montgomery

Joined
May 9, 2000
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So what do you guys think lays ahead for the custom knife market for 2009? What will the year be like? What trends do you as far as popular styles?

I'm hoping the year will be a good one for makers and collectors alike. Maybe with some luck the custom knife market will be able to remain buoyant.

Bowies will stay strong, as will Loveless style knives. Tactical knives of all kinds will also remain popular. I'm thinking there may be a bit of an upsurge in the popularity of daggers. Slipjoints will stay strong, and hunters will continue on a par with the last few years.

I see more of the small private knife shows for 2009. I'm not sure how things will be for the big shows, but I think that some of them will continue to be popular, and others will see declines in attendance by both makers and collectors.

Giraffe bone will gain in popularity (just thought I would throw that one in there).

It's going to be interesting to look back at this thread come the end of the year to see who was the best predictor of things to come.
 
Daggers, eh? What makes you say that Keith?

Speaking from my own perception/reality, I think there will be an increase in the popularity of small fixed blade knives which are designed for every day use and carry.;)
They're relatively less expensive than large knives and folders and provide utility that is unparallelled, (think Scandinavian). They could be a staple, breadnbutter item for many knifemakers, should the market grow. I believe they will become the 'gateway' knife for people transitioning into buying handmade knives. Much of this will depend on Ed Fowler's Movement and its success, and whether knives will continue to be looked at primarily as weapons by most people in the developed parts of the world.

I also tend to think that EDUs* will start taking hunting knives' entry level market share, but that hunting knives will move more into the high end and will be more frequently embellished and made with exotic materials for wealthier collectors.

Additionally, I'll bet that slipjoints will increase in desirability due to easy carry, (no worries about stringent carry laws) and lower production price.

Also, I'm going to guess that ethnically/regionally shaped knives, (daggers?;)) are going to become more mainstream, and that the tactical market will become more sophisticated in the use of these designs, and that there will be more room for 'wilder' designs. Space age stuff. Will more commercially available knives start incorporating these design elements?

Will high end custom knives move away from utility oriented design and into the realm of 'spiritual' or 'fetishistic' design?

I wonder if 'tactical' folders are on the outs? Survival knives?

Given the economic state of the world, and the enormous political/foreign policy changes occurring in the States over the next year, I like to think that knife design in North America will become more wordly and multi cultural.

I think that forged knives will continue to rise in popularity, for a number of reasons, some of them economic. There will possibly be more demand for more 'traditional' construction methods and materials, but with the sleek new school of knife design, (Raymond Richard, Jason Knight, Anders Hogstrom and Don Hanson are some of the names that shout out to me as being at the forefront).

As for Loveless influenced designs and bowies as a genre, they seem now to be at their zenith, so I'll leave it at that. They could gain popularity or they could wane. I don't know. I'm hedging my bets toward the latter.

As for materials, it's anybody's guess, but I think natural materials which are made to look artificial and artificial materials which are made to look natural will not be in favour. More excitement in design and less reliance on bling?

And that's about all I have in my head at the moment. Great thread, Keith.

*EDU- every day utility



P.s. please take this 2 cents, (Canadian) for what it's worth.
 
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Lorien said:
Daggers, eh? What makes you say that Keith?

I thought I noticed a slight increase in the amount of daggers being posted on this forum last year, and in the magazines and books that I looked through.

I wonder if 'tactical' folders are on the outs? Survival knives?

In my opinion, tactical knives will remain strong. The makers of those knives are amongst the most popular, and I think it is going to stay that way.

As for Loveless influenced designs and bowies as a genre, they seem now to be at their zenith, so I'll leave it at that. They could gain popularity or they could wane. I don't know. I'm hedging my bets toward the latter.

Last year I noticed a large rise in the popularity of Loveless style knives, and I see that continuing. I don't think their popularity has reached its zenith.
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I thought more folks would be interested in making predictions for the upcoming year.
 
Some ideas on why things are so slow, for such an interesting, (to two of us at least) topic;

1. No one is willing to look like an ass, (well, besides us two:D)
2. No one has any ideas
3. Everyone wants to hold onto their secrets for strategy's sake
4. No one has any opinions
5. Everyone is too humble to prognosticate
6. No one else sees the point in such outlandish speculation

:D
 
With the economy the way it is I do not know. I think the high end stuff will always have it's buyers. But I think you will see a trend to more reasonable priced blades taking the lion's share. As to what trends will people follow? I have no idea I only know what I like.:D I think that it will pretty much stay the course that it is now when it comes to bowie's, Loveless designs etc.
 
I will predict Jason Knight will be named the greatest maker in the land, but he will revoke the title in order to pursue his training as a Jedi knight.
 
NickWheeler said:
I will predict Jason Knight will be named the greatest maker in the land, but he will revoke the title in order to pursue his training as a Jedi knight.
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Thats funny because I predict that you will construct a new light saber and present it at the Blade show for your MS, since you hate steel so much.

As for me, I predict that I will keep buying more knives then I can afford, thus preventing me from doing normal 26 year old activities. Oh, and that I am gonna bug a few makers to make me the coolest knives known to mankind.
 
The one area that I see as still on the rise is the interest in Traditional folders. I suspect continued growth and more and more makers getting involved.

They are simply beautiful and acceptable by virtually everyone in society. That's a nice benefit. :)

Coop
 
I predict that, after much anxiety and loss of hair, that I will actually pass my JS test and all of you snob collectors will be forced to play catch up and buy my knives:p Actually, I think that a good point was made about some of the subtle, yet important design changes we have seen from guys like Don, Russ, Jason and others. i know that I have incorporated some of these little tweaks into my knifemaking. I, like others, worry about the economy, but that is temporary...I hope. What also worries me is the scarcity and resulting high prices of desirable materials like sambar stag and mammoth and walrus ivory. An extra $100-200 for ivory added onto the price a $3000 knife isn't such a big deal, but on a $500-1000 knife it is. In the sub $500 range, the cost of a $75 stag carver or a $60 piece of ironwood is harder to pass along to the customer.
 
whose?:D
 
Erik Fritz said:
I predict Nick Wheeler will finish a knife this year................
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That might be stretching it a bit........unless you are talking about one of the extra knives that he "almost" had finished for his JS test 18 months ago:p:D
 
SharpByCoop said:
........Traditional folders..............

They are simply beautiful and acceptable by virtually everyone in society. That's a nice benefit. :)
Click to expand...

This is a really good point. The laws are getting worse and worse. Seems that most carry folders these days are starting to be considered gravity knives. I guess it is only natural for traditional folders to make a big comeback.

I started carrying a Hanson slip recently for this reason. I am a young guy, who has had my car searched before and if I am gonna carry an expensive custom, I need it not to be considered a gravity knife and taken away from me.

In most of my knife collecting years I wasn't too attracted to slips or traditional folders. However this all changed this year as I am seriously starting to enjoy them.
 
Man, tough crowd. ;)

I predict that if I don't finish one I will be greeted by a lynch mob at my front door :D
 
NickWheeler said:
Man, tough crowd. ;)

I predict that if I don't finish one I will be greeted by a lynch mob at my front door :D
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You need to marry you a rich, homely woman and get back to full time knifemaking:D
 
Nick, I know your first light saber will be meaningful to you, but make sure you sell me the second one. But don't slack off. I want a contoured handle and a high polish. The frame can be some kind of twist pattern too.
 
NickWheeler said:
Man, tough crowd. ;)

I predict that if I don't finish one I will be greeted by a lynch mob at my front door :D
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A knife wielding lynch mob, no less!
 
jonathan brand said:
The funny part is that nick wont have any knives to defend his little self with.
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When confronted by said angry mob, Nick will flex and the women will swoon and the men will run screaming........well, he hopes that all of the men will run screaming:D
 
I don't have any predictions. Although I do agree with Coop that slippies are going to be much more popular. I guess I have one prediction; Mike Alsdorf is going to be much busier in 2009!! :D I intend to get MORE knives from him. I will keep buying what I like. I hope 2009 is a great knife year for everyone.
 
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