Predictions for 2009

I don't do very well with predictions. While not a fatalist, I just figure that it will be what it will be. If it's a good market, I will buy more knives. If it's a bad market, I will buy more knives.

My only prediction is that there will be more threads asking this same question, trying to predict what will happen to the knife market in 2009 - and perhaps even 2010.
 
After seeing that fighter by Bailey Bradshaw that STeven posted, I got to thinking that fighters have been surging in popularity over the last year. They can be such beautiful knives that I think that trend is bound to continue.
 
I predict that there will be an influx of new progressive folder designs interpreted and built to look antique. More use of natural materials. Single bladed slippies will gain more popularity and a new trend in non traditional progressive designed slippies will emerge.I also think slimmer,more streamlined and lighter tacticals will gain in popularity. Smaller tactical fixed blades will stay strong as well as fighters . I think the use of texture and contrast will be very popular as well as deep carving and sculpted knives.
Midtech and mini production runs by makers will be more common place.

So what ? anyone agree? disagree?
 
I believe the $2000+ knives will continue to do fine while the others will experience pressure. Though painful short term, I believe the secondary market will ultimately benefit overall from this correction.

I believe the internet's influence on custom knives will continue to grow in 2009.

IMO, attendance will drop slightly at some regional knife shows due to the increasing number of shows and the weak economy.

Though the quantity of small micro shows (Fisk; Josh Smith) are increasing dramatically, they don't attract large numbers of collectors. However they do attract those collectors who buy the higher end knives, so this will IMO have a negative impact on the larger conventional show's higher end knife sales.
 
NickWheeler said:
Man, tough crowd. ;)

I predict that if I don't finish one I will be greeted by a lynch mob at my front door :D
Click to expand...
If not a mob, then a single, solitary, duel at High Noon. :eek:

Choose your weapon! ;)

Coop
 
SharpByCoop said:
If not a mob, then a single, solitary, duel at High Noon. :eek:

Choose your weapon! ;)

Coop
Click to expand...
But how long will you be willing to wait outside said front door while Nick shouts out "I only have to etch and polish it with vinegar and polishing powder 18 more times and it will be ready!!":D
 
I'd like to see a move away from the "toxified" style on tactical knives. If I see one more knife with handles that are randomly ground up in the style of Ansø, et al, I will puke. I think some makers do it really well, but others are just copying a fad instead of using their own creativity.
 
I think knives will still sell but they will need to be exceptional to get people to open their wallets and forget about their job, mortage and credit card payments.

Knifemakers will have to be more creative with new designs, near flawless execution and keenly priced to get the buyers' money. I don't think I can increase my prices this year even though I spend longer on each knife than I used to.

I think makers will need to expand the potential customer base into none traditional sectors and appeal more to NKP with attractive designs and marketing.
 
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