SHTF?EOTW scenarios

jokrswylde

jokrswylde

Joined
Jun 4, 2004
Messages
442
I have seen many threads pertaining to what you and family would do in a true survival-EOTW-SHTF scenario, but I would like to read some of you guys realistic scenarios. In other words, what world event do you see with a real possibility of ocurring that would put us in a long term survival situation? Collapse of world banking? Meteor impact? Global warming as in "Day After Tomorrow"? DEforestation? Alien invasion?Terrorist attack? Armageddon?

Just thought it would be interesting to see what we could come up with as far as legitimate (albeit hypothetical) events that could put us back in the dark ages.
 
When their is the next Ice age I think that that will put us back into the sone age, like in the movie day after tommorow. An Ice age inaviodable time that is going to happen no matter what, when this happens things are going to change a lot.
 
It would take a global event of some kind to put us back into the stone age, but it would only take a local flood, quake, fire, etc., to put your family in harms way. My family has been flooded twice. Both came within 2 months of each other and both times we had to abandon our home and possessions in a big hurry. The first time it was caused by torrential rains and massive amounts of runoff over filling the river. The second time we were at the mercy of man and his infinite wisdom, or lack thereof. Seems some dummy opened up the flood gates at the damn in a panic when he saw the water rising and our river rose 13' when he did.

To get more to the point of most discussions on this site, preparedness, I find it kind of strange that people don't prepare for lean times as a natural part of life. Our ancestors didn't just gather food for the next day, they built up food stores to last through the lean times.

The problem with living in our affluent society is that we tend to forget that we aren't really in charge of our lives. 80% of the population do their modern food gathering in super markets and this puts them not only at the mercy of Nature, but the guy that owns the market, or the guy that drives the truck, or the government that, in the event of a major catastrophy, can and will confiscate all food and water resources, etc.

I was raised that we have enough food, water and medicine to get us through the lean times and being who I am, I'm not willing to give any man the kind of power to take those things from myself and my family. If others are, then they will have to pay the price for their lack of instinct/vision of the possibilities that lay ahead of them.
 
Barring unpredictable global events (including plagues), I think the problems ahead will be economic at the outset. At some point the entitlement system is going to fold - it's inevitable. When that happens there will be a lot of people who suddenly find themselves without.... and they'll be knocking on the doors of the people who still have food, homes, clothes, money, etc.

My prediction is for a really nasty urban upheaval. And just like the Y2K gurus said, "Anyone who lives within 5 miles of a 7-11 is going to be toast."

Dark Ages? Maybe. Maybe not.

Interesting Times? Absolutely.
 
Two things...
One, if the US starts to get hit with BIG multiple terror attacks, you can bet on there being marshall law. If that happens, I'm heading for the hills. Any city with a port or a population larger than 100K better be ready.

Otherwise, I think we're close enough to the "end times" predicted in the Bible for an apocolyptic scenario to occur within the next 100 years. That being said, I think that Israel will develop cold fusion. That will be the beginning of the end.

Have a nice day.
 
It seems most natural disasters are short term. Maybe an ice age, invasion, sweeping power grid blackouts, etc, but are these things really likely?
 
Does not matter to me how it happens really. All I know is that me and mine will be as ready as anyone can be in those times. I have food, water, weapons and the means and the know how to carry on without the government. They have never given me s*** anyway. I love this country I'm just not happy with all the bullshit gun laws and bans on stupid things. Just my two cents what do I know?
 
I think, yeah, the weather issue could cause survival problems.., from freezing to heating, to too much water to not enough, etc.

But I also feel that 1 or 2 EMP explosions way above the country could put us into a major SHTF.

The US dollar issue could do things nearly as bad.
 
A years supply of food (hidden) will go a long way towards keeping disasters managable. In may places you can drive a well with a sand point for water (requires a pump and probably membrane filtration to remove chemical nasties)(dont expect the faucets (or other utilities) to work if the defecation impacts the rotory impeller). A prudent person will evaluate things like the potiential for flooding, blizzards, chemical spills (ala bopol india) and utility interuption before deciding where to live. Then they will take appropriate actions to maintain an acceptable life style(in the face of the worst scenerios) while the means are availiable (prepare now for things that may happen). I am not too woried about alien invasion (They may already be here, if you believe in such things). If you live at ground zero for terrorist incicents, meteors and astroids you have no worries, otherwise they can be treated like epidemics, hords of locusts, volcanoes(ALA krakatoa) (google "year without a summer")and other atomic winter scenerios (you will need a secure location and at least 5 years of stored food, as well as the ability to defend yourself).
Utility outages (Gas electric and water failure)will pose a (possibly major) inconvienience but it is incredably unlikely to realisticly propose a scenerio that would even drive us back to the turn of the 1900s or even 1920s. Electriciy (if you need it) can be wind and/or solar (you can make batteries with lead and surfuric acid if you really had to)(kinda makes you wish you'd paid attention in high school chemistry doesn't it?) A fifty gallon drum of lamp oil (properly stored) will keep the oil lamps burning quite a while.
Methane can be made from excrement (they cook with it in India) (during WWI the Germans powered vehicles with it). Gas plants used to be a feature of every medium sized city, the knowlege is still here (if needed).
Enough rain falls on the roof of almost every single family home to provide all of the potable water requirements if it is stored adequately (Google earthship) If you dont live in the desert you may be able to drive a well (buy the supplies now).
Other than computors and sterios there is little permanent damage that an EMP would do (only the unprepaired will suffer). Your auto is actually pretty well shielded and some of us have the means to return to point style ignitions, generators and carburators should it become necessary.
In a well insulated home (start insulating now your reduced heating bills will pay for it, eventually) solar heating can supply all of the heating (wood burning stoves would be a prudant back up).
Card game and other old fashioned entertainements should come back into style.
Having several trades to fall back on (and a stash of silver coin) will enable one to make a living. In all but the most unrealistic scenerios.
Enjoy!

The worst "realistic" scenerio that I can come up with is if all (or a few) of the volcanoes around Mexico City , Mexico decide to erupt. the resulting influx of refugees would devistate our economy and living conditions.
 
1. Economic collapse.

2. Terrorists set off a nuclear device or devices in a major city/cities.

I think either one of these could do more damage to us than we think. It is not unthinkable that if a nuc went off in Washington and New York at the same time the country would be thrown into total chaos with the military taking over what was left. Running for the country side would be fruitless, do you think the folks in West Virginia are going to be greeting all the city refugees with open arms?

For a while, weeks, months?, there will not be much law in some parts, and it will come down to how much ammo do you have to protect you and yours. There will be alot of very hungry and desperat people who may be willing to kill you for that case of Spam because their own kids are starving.

When things get bad and there is no local authority to keep control people can get real ugly real fast.

"Anybody can be capable of anything if someone they love is in danger".
 
"if a nuc went off in Washington and New York at the same time the country would be thrown into total chaos "
I really think that the local and state law inforcement would take care of the lawless well enough (although anyone that even looked vaguely like an arab would be in real physical danger). If necessary, a few looters strung up from streetlights would send a clear message (although, 12 ga. shells may go up in price a little). Most peoples ony interaction with Washington is the IRS (don't think for a minute that our military hasn't prepared for this scenerio) and (other than a few museums) there is little in New York city that the civilized world cannot do without (the stock markets can be serviced through SanFrancisco and Chicago not to mention Tokyo and London). The decontamination and care of the survivors woulrd have a large adverse effect on the economy.
Since we we only have about 30 days of groceries in the system at any one time, I would think very large natural disasters (Like the volcano that is Yellowstone park erupting, again) would pose the greatest threat to the most people. If the eruption were big enough (and it could be bigger than any in recorded history) it could send the world into a nuclear winter situation with widespread starvation as America's and Canada's farming capabilities would be largely eliminated for several years
EnjoY!
 
For me I can think of recent disasters like the Tsunami as sounding a relevanlt warning. All we got on my beach was an extra large tide that day (so I hear, I wasn't here at the time) - but next time could be worse. It's also been a few years since we've had a big cyclone or bushfiire in this area.

We are a small comminuty with plenty of resources for self sufficiency - everyone has rainwater, we can all fish and there is plenty of fertile soil just inland. I think our greatest resource is the fact that we have had experience pulling together for different social events and for emergency preparedness (such as the bush fire brigade) so I imagine our response, as a community, would be initially fairly swift. Command structures and demarcation into different roles, wich may take weeks in some places, are already formally and informally established in a place like ours.
 
So what would happen, if say the banking infrastructure collapsed, and we were returned to a barter system? I know I have some mutual funds and other investments, but I have no gold or silver. All of my investments could be wiped out with a keystroke. What would happen if that happened to a multitude of people?

I think it is very probable that we will be forced into a "survival of the fittest" scenario eventually, it is the natural progression of nature. As an environment reaches its carrying capacity, organisms begin to die off. Are humans approaching the carrying capacity of earth?
 
The "end of the world" scenario that I imagine could do the most harm to the human race is something like in Twelve Monkeys. Imagine someone carrying (perhaps infected with) an extremely virulent and deadly, possibly engineered, biological agent and taking a leisurely trip through all the world's largest airports. :eek:

The only defence I can think of against such an action would be either to hide securely in one's home, or to escape any contact with civilization, out into the woods. I'm not so paranoid as to believe any of these EOTW scenarios are especially likely, but I acknowledge I'm illequipped for most of them, and man, if any of this stuff ever did happen I would be kicking my ass sooooo hard ... my biggest fear is that I'll ponder all these possibilities, and when something actually does happen I'll find myself unprepared. For that reason, I do intend to get my poop together this year, to be as ready as I can. My main problem is figuring out where to begin!!!
 
Carthage said:
Two things...
One, if the US starts to get hit with BIG multiple terror attacks, you can bet on there being marshall law. If that happens, I'm heading for the hills. Any city with a port or a population larger than 100K better be ready.

Have a nice day.
Click to expand...

I was talking to a LEO about a BIG attack on the Denver area. He said that they have plans to section off the city and what ever section you are in, you must stay there. They have places to take every one. Like a stadium or what ever. You won't be allowed to go home. Yeah, Martial Law. You ain't gonna like it. Better know the back roads to where you want to go and think about walking at nite even if it means miles out of your way.

And someone said something about '30 days of groceries in the system'. Are you kidding? There's barely 3 days worth in the system. It's called 'just in time' warehousing. Most grocery stores would be out of food in a few hours in a real region wide emergency.
 
I think that anything can happen, and there is no reason to not be prepared, I posted a question in the blade forum about what to have in your bug out bag, I'm trying to be prepared. I was raised in the Catholic church, probably the only part of the Bible I've read is Revelations, and while that scared the crap outta me, I don't think we are in those times, I don't know if those times will ever come. Yeah, today's world is a lot scarier, but look at the rest of the world. Some areas have managed to survive with little progress for the past 5000 years. Example, the Masai man guarding his cattle with an AK47 slung over his shoulder, and his knife in his sarong. Still doing things the old way, just new tools. We rely on our technological wonders too much, myself included, and I think that we lust after our luxuries, like electricity, well water and processed foods, but we would adapt. Of course, we would not have a good time. The scenario is the one from the movie Fight Club, can you imagine if that happened? The worlds infrastructure would collapse. Now, I think that they wouldn't be able to get all of the servers, there has to be some hard copy out there, but that's one possibility. If we worry all the time, we let them win, we should prepare as best we can, and hope for the best.
 
rnr said:
I was talking to a LEO about a BIG attack on the Denver area. He said that they have plans to section off the city and what ever section you are in, you must stay there. They have places to take every one. Like a stadium or what ever. You won't be allowed to go home. Yeah, Martial Law. You ain't gonna like it. Better know the back roads to where you want to go and think about walking at nite even if it means miles out of your way.
Click to expand...

Until last year I lived in Colorado Springs, one of the country's fastest-growing ant farms. Immediately after 9/11 a buddy and I gave this same idea some thought. We spent a couple of really fun days following a creek / drainage ditch that ran from the plains up into the mountains, and which also served as a conduit between our homes. We never put a vehicle in it, but after some extensive scouting we were convinced that it would make a good alternate route. Food for thought, eh?
 
RE; 30 days of food in the system, certainly over optomistic once the hoarding starts. (better start on the survival pantry now)
RE; driving throug the creeks/ dranage ditches in Colorado Springs, the Cops are getting pretty good at catching people doing this, better try it blacked out, at night with night vision.
So far the terrorist/government scenerios look the scariest and most likely. These could lead to totolitarinism but probably not a dark age.
Geneticly engineered pandemics are definately possible as an EOTW scenerio and almost impossible to guard against since any engineered disease would be resistant to common antibotics. Self Isolation would be the only defence. Go or stay would be a very difficult decision as thousands will be headed for the hills and the house is at least relatively defensable.
"My main problem is figuring out where to begin!!!"
I started with the bugout bag+food, advanced to a vehicle based bugout kit+ additional food, and am now working on the food supply that would be used if a decision is made to hole up at home. Such a program lets you start inexpensively and cover more different scenerios as your supplies get more comprehensive. IMO the more options you have the better your chances.
Enjoy!
 
Happy Joe, you in Colorado Springs? I lived there a while ago and will be back this summer, for good. I grew up in Divide and Woodland Park. Rainmaker and I would go up Rampart and practice bow drill and stuff. Maybe when I get back (July) we can get together for some dirt time. Interested?

Ric
 
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