State of the state.....

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Kohai999

Kohai999

Second Degree Cutter
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Jul 15, 2003
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Welp,

As many of you know, I keep a finger on the pulse of the knife world.

It's not awful, but it ain't real good.

Custom/Handmade knives are not moving with the usual feverish pitch that they can tend to.

HOT makers continue to bring top prices....a Michael Walker Zipper can bring a cool $100,000.000, a Todd Rexford can bring $20,000.00.....but

There is a whole lot of stuff just sitting on dealer sites that is of excellent quality at very fair prices....how do I know?

Because I have five knives for sale on one dealer site and five on another.....these are fantastic knives, but they are just not moving.

Now I'm not worried as most of you know, I'm in for the long haul and they will sell eventually, but if I were to get into the game right now as a fresh face, I would be cautious.

Caution should be the mantra of the beginning collector. Unless a new maker is offering fantastic value, I would pass, and go for the "blue chip" makers. I still feel that Brian Tighe knives represent a fantastic value when you get a top piece, and that they will go up in value.

Ask questions. Don't think because you got chosen for a lottery knife that it automatically equates to $$ on your end, because often, it doesn't.

Let's talk!

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
I've gotta agree with you, Steven. And it's all knives, save the truly investment grade makers/pieces, that seem to have slackened selling. Anyone who spend a few hrs a day on a computer, checking out the secondary market, I would think would draw a similar conclusion to at least a slowing trend. I tend to think it's largely due a glut of customs available, produced in the late 80's and 90's, that no longer satisfy more current style requirements.

But that's just IMHO.
 
From a demographic perspective, it could be that there are fewer young collectors in the accumulation phase relative to the number of mature collectors in the liquidation phase. In fact I think this is probably one of the biggest issues facing our market today and in the years to come. Don't even get me started on what these demographic issues mean for our underfunded pensions, federal entitlement programs, and public debt levels over the course of the next 10-20 years (hint: we're all screwed)

From a macroeconomic perspective, meanwhile, recent increases in housing and healthcare costs amid relatively stagnant wages could also be crimping disposable incomes, thereby reducing aggregate demand for mid-level luxury goods and collectibles in general.

Finally, to whatever degree the various segments of the art/collector markets are correlated, you might find this recent article interesting as well: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ainting-bought-to-flip-yours-for-about-20-000
 
As I’ve been saying for 10 years or so, If you buy the right knives from the right makers at the right price there’s always someone who will pay what they’re worth.

What is the 'right knife'? Usually, a well executed and time proven classic design that stands out among the others (for a number of reasons) today and will most likely do so in the years to come.

Who is the 'right maker'? Usually, a maker who not only makes well designed and well executed knives, but relentlessly promotes himself and his knives and knows how to run his business thus achieving a favorable and sustainable position in the market.

What is the ‘right price’? Usually, at or below the price at which the maker offers the knife to his buyers. In other words, avoid dealer mark-ups, existing owner mark-ups above market price value and ‘flipper’ premiums.

The above has worked for me over the years regardless of market trends.
 
Kevin Jones said:
As I’ve been saying for 10 years or so, If you buy the right knives from the right makers at the right price there’s always someone who will pay what they’re worth..
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I'm telling you that from my experience this situation is changing, Kevin.

There is a glut of top quality stuff that isn't moving on the aftermarket, and it is even applicable to the "right" makers of knives that are highly sought after.

I think Wulf nailed it pretty much. There just are not that many new collectors coming in......and as usual, the preponderance of new makers are competing with the guys who have been around for a long time.....

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
I would agree that it's a buyers market right now for secondary knife purchases. I've listed several knives trying to raise some funds that 1 - 2 years back would've sold within an hour at the price I had them listed... but which I had to discount severely to actually sell them. I wonder how fast the blades were selling off makers tables at BLADE this year in Atlanta??
 
One of my best friends had a table at The Gathering this year, and it was slow for him. He usually sells out in a few hours.

There were some makers that did very well, but the stories that I was hearing uniformly indicated that the market correction we spoke about a few years ago is picking up steam.

Yes, there are a number of just plain dumb overbuilt folding prybars that are selling for big bux right now, but do you guys remember the engraved interframe craze in the late '80's/early '90's? Knives that were selling at that time for upwards of 5K are now available pretty much everywhere for around $1,500.00. These folding prybars that are selling for $3,000-$5,000 now will be selling for around $1,000 within 10 years, I'll bet on it!

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Kohai999 said:
I'm telling you that from my experience this situation is changing, Kevin.

There is a glut of top quality stuff that isn't moving on the aftermarket, and it is even applicable to the "right" makers of knives that are highly sought after.

I think Wulf nailed it pretty much. There just are not that many new collectors coming in......and as usual, the preponderance of new makers are competing with the guys who have been around for a long time.....

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
Click to expand...

I agree, too few new collectors coming onto the market to support the abundance of knifemakers. It's startling how many new knifemakers visit the CKCA booth at Blade Show as opposed to new collectors.
Still say a collector can reduce their risk of being stuck with knives by following my advise. Too many new collectors buy on impulse then want to blame the market a couple years down the road when no one wants to buy their knives.
 
Kevin Jones said:
I agree, too few new collectors coming onto the market to support the abundance of knifemakers. It's startling how many new knifemakers visit the CKCA booth at Blade Show as opposed to new collectors.
Still say a collector can reduce their risk of being stuck with knives by following my advise. Too many new collectors buy on impulse then want to blame the market a couple years down the road when no one wants to buy their knives.
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Agree with you 110%, but that is not a new phenomenon.

Two major reasons new collectors don't stick with a genre is 1)loss of interest/boredom....and 2)getting burned. It may or may not be their fault that they lose money on knives, but when we lose collectors or they are not choosing knife collecting as a hobby.....we as a community lose, every one of us.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Kohai999 said:
Agree with you 110%, but that is not a new phenomenon.

Two major reasons new collectors don't stick with a genre is 1)loss of interest/boredom....and 2)getting burned. It may or may not be their fault that they lose money on knives, but when we lose collectors or they are not choosing knife collecting as a hobby.....we as a community lose, every one of us.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
Click to expand...

Exactly, and as you know, one of the major objectives of the CKCA is to help bring in and sustain new collectors.

Of course, not really fault; just the nature of the beast. When you get interested in something there's the excitement and
desire to jump right in and buy what initially appeals to you. Being patience and educating yourself to make initial purchases that will
still appeal to you years down the road isn't an easy task.
 
Can't disagree with above comments. I've sold few in the past year and had a couple I thought would sell quickly but didn't. We can all do our part to bring in new collectors, young and old. I've given away several nice knives to people I thought would appreciate them and had disposable income. I give my sons knives but that's a long term play and doesn't really count. They have no money of their own. However, I closed a business deal in NY and bought a very nice folder for the guy who put it together as a thank you. He is a wealthy guy from CT and into nice watches. He had never thought about fine folders. Now he does. A good friend who loves to fish and has a $90K fishing boat (best kind of friend) never accepts my offers to pay for gas or expenses, so I gave him a custom knife (he was using a Bubba blade). Now he has the bug, especially for custom kitchen knives. My point, if you have custom knives you can't sell and that won't hurt you financially to offer as gifts, do so. It may spark new interest and expand the market as a whole. Many other ways to spark interest beyond giving away your knives.
 
mwschilling said:
Can't disagree with above comments. I've sold few in the past year and had a couple I thought would sell quickly but didn't. We can all do our part to bring in new collectors, young and old. I've given away several nice knives to people I thought would appreciate them and had disposable income. I give my sons knives but that's a long term play and doesn't really count. They have no money of their own. However, I closed a business deal in NY and bought a very nice folder for the guy who put it together as a thank you. He is a wealthy guy from CT and into nice watches. He had never thought about fine folders. Now he does. A good friend who loves to fish and has a $90K fishing boat (best kind of friend) never accepts my offers to pay for gas or expenses, so I gave him a custom knife (he was using a Bubba blade). Now he has the bug, especially for custom kitchen knives. My point, if you have custom knives you can't sell and that won't hurt you financially to offer as gifts, do so. It may spark new interest and expand the market as a whole. Many other ways to spark interest beyond giving away your knives.
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^^^Good stuff, Mark!^^^
 
^^ Mark, you are VERy generous and benevolent to this community. I applaud this!

New collectors: I have now over 30,000 'followers' in Instagram, and I post 3-4 a day. Old, new, standard, curious..... all in an attempt to inject desire in our world.

My clients get seen, yet the LARGE picture is how many non-knife people 'tag' me and wish to see more. If only 1% of them follow through with a future purchase that's fantastic!

IG has become inescapable in the attraction and promotion of ANYTHING. (We happen to subscribe to Custom Knives).

I take this seriously as well, and like STeven, I'm in it for the long haul.

I'm subscribed. Good thread.

Coop
 
The paradigm shift in our world from folks who seek out and enjoy well made, durable goods and have the financial wherewithal to acquire same to the new generation who view everything as disposable, have been born into nihilism and have no collecting "gene" is shocking, but there it is.

Have been working at Home Depot for three months now, and the younger consumers I meet daily wouldn't know the difference between an Allen wrench and Torx wrench if you held a gun to their yappy little dog's head. For us, it's all in the details.

Mark, good on ya! I've been giving away knives to knife people and non-knife people for years. The good will generated offsets whatever cost involved by a 10 fold magnitude. Coop knows!

Great stuff guys, keep it going, this is not the usual same old, same old!

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
I blame Forged in Fire.

Suddenly every dolt who wanted a good knife became convinced he could make one in his garage with an angle grinder and some lawnmower parts :p
 
Good thread, Steven!

I do really think this time of year 'magnifies' what we are seeing in the custom knife market.
 
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