If you got a real Microtech from a government auction, I'd call that luck. And getting lucky doesn't make them a reliable source.
It's a government auction, not an authorized vendor. They sell knives confiscated from random people, in a world awash in counterfeits, and I seriously doubt they bother to verify the authenticity of the knives.
If you consider them such a reliable source, why did you start this thread asking "what are the odds it's a counterfeit?". If you have to ask such a question, then it doesn't sound like a reliable source to me.
A reliable source is one that will sell you a REAL knife every time, and you don't have to worry about wasting money on a fake.
Good luck with your bidding.