urban survival: social disruption.

[koyote]

I wanted to talk more about the effects on urban and suburban dwellers with disruptive events. We've had several hurricanes and extensive flooding in some areas in the past sveral years, and right now we have an 'open lab' in Mexico city, I'm having some trouble finding out everything that is happening there, and think we could team up and talk out the social and supply effects of the flu scare. without discussing the flu itself


One quote from an article that seems very counterintuitive to most TEOTWAWKI thinkers:

'There have been some temporary benefits from the disruption to Mexico’s capital. Over recent days the crime rate has dropped almost to zero as robbers, muggers, and kidnappers stay at home. “Not even the criminals are working,” Serafín Rodríguez, an officer with the capital’s PGR police force, said. “There are no robberies, no kidnappings, no nothing. You can walk pretty much anywhere right now, I’ve never seen anything like it — it’s like a national holiday.” '

I am reading reports of mandated restaurant seating closures, but haven't found any failures in infrastructure yet. Anyone else got anything?

 

[JD Mandrell]

My first thoughts in an urban disruption is to try to stay clear of large groups of people if at all possible.

 

[kgd]

A colleague of mine in Merida reported that the government has closed down the universities and mandated closure of movie theatres, sporting and entertainment events. He hasn't said much else, but there is a clear plan in place to reduce transmission by preventing large social gatherings from occurring.

In some ways Mexico is an interesting case study because the government actually seems to have authority to perform actions and to do so quickly. They seem to have little in way of difficulty of mobilizing their military to do their bidding and the populace doesn't question that authority. True, it has its failings, particularly in good times where corruption can creep in. But it may be advantageous in emergencies also.

 

[11x11x]

I'm having some trouble finding out everything that is happening there, and think we could team up and talk out the social and supply effects of the flu scare.

This thing is blown way out of proportion. But my thinking is this. Those in Mexico who can and do access media will take more interest in this flu bug (And how Mexican media is protraying this story). Those on the upper end of the socio-economic ladder will take more prepartions, etc. I've always considered Mexicans to be collective culture and group orientated. I doubt you'd see much of the US attitude of individuals and/or families "holding out" in the cellar. Propably more of a united social effort maybe? My guess is no one really cares down there. Life will go on as normal for 99% of people down there.

 

[HikingMano]

Right on Koyote :thumbup:


Edited: deleted a few links to articles because I think they were a little off-topic (more economic effect than urban survival and social effects).

 

[koyote]

If you mean the flu itself is blown out of proportion, I won't argue, but that's not the topic- we've adequately destroyed the usefulness of another thread debating that.

I'm much more interested in the effects here.

The white house is running in circles because Biden said bluntly that he'd tell his family to stay off planes and subways. Apparently this will cause a panic....


Fortunately, this does appear to be as much a problem with medical care to people with pnuemonia as an actual problem with a flu. So we're not likely to see the full effects of what I'd feared- truckers and engineers refusing to deliver food into the city, sanitation and basic services evaporating.

Looks like so far we're stuck with a lower crime rate and a bit more difficulty getting some types of foodstuffs.


There are some fears of increased diet related deaths in egypt once they finish slaughtering part of the core food production for non muslims in the country.

 

[koyote]

Right on Koyote :thumbup:


Edited: deleted a few links to articles because I think they were a little off-topic (more economic effect than urban survival and social effects).

The economic effects could have an impact of interest to us (in the survival side of the WSS), but I admit it can get complicated.

"“Considering that Mexico is the United States’ second largest trading partner, I expect this outbreak to affect many other products and supply chains if the situation in Mexico worsens."

A lot of that trade is in food, as well.

If the scare causes a huge border lockdown at some point that can effect our domestic food prices significantly.

 

[shecky]

One quote from an article that seems very counterintuitive to most TEOTWAWKI thinkers:

'There have been some temporary benefits from the disruption to Mexico’s capital. Over recent days the crime rate has dropped almost to zero as robbers, muggers, and kidnappers stay at home. “Not even the criminals are working,” Serafín Rodríguez, an officer with the capital’s PGR police force, said. “There are no robberies, no kidnappings, no nothing. You can walk pretty much anywhere right now, I’ve never seen anything like it — it’s like a national holiday.” '

I am reading reports of mandated restaurant seating closures, but haven't found any failures in infrastructure yet. Anyone else got anything?

I'm not sure why that would seem counterintuitive. The flu is passed usually from person to person. The best way to avoid the flu is to avoid exposure to other people. Robbers and kidnappers are no more eager to get deathly ill than anyone else and the virus doesn't respond to intimidation like people do. If the relatively benign status quo continues for more than a few months, predatory folks will go back to normal levels of malevolence, perhaps adopting simple precautions such as surgical masks.

I don't expect to see any serious disruptions unless folks really start dropping like flies.

 

[koyote]

I'm not sure why that would seem counterintuitive. The flu is passed usually from person to person. The best way to avoid the flu is to avoid exposure to other people. Robbers and kidnappers are no more eager to get deathly ill than anyone else and the virus doesn't respond to intimidation like people do. If the relatively benign status quo continues for more than a few months, predatory folks will go back to normal levels of malevolence, perhaps adopting simple precautions such as surgical masks.

I don't expect to see any serious disruptions unless folks really start dropping like flies.

Well, disease or not, one of the primary cookbook scenarios for people who write about TEOTWAWKI or even just large scale disruptions is a massive "attack" of criminals, looters, rioters, and such.

Not just the extreme hard core Ahern books style castle defense, or even the Stirling/Niven/Pournelle scenarios- but even the more down to earth writers like Octavia Butler or Pat Frank almost rely on a dramatic increase in criminal violence.

There's a way this could go that would increase criminal activity dramatically- and that's if the mortality rate shoots up and basic bottom of the pyramid level services stop (food, shelter, clothing, water), but I found it interesting that the initial effect is a reduction in crime.

 

[shecky]

Well, disease or not, one of the primary cookbook scenarios for people who write about TEOTWAWKI or even just large scale disruptions is a massive "attack" of criminals, looters, rioters, and such.

Not just the extreme hard core Ahern books style castle defense, or even the Stirling/Niven/Pournelle scenarios- but even the more down to earth writers like Octavia Butler or Pat Frank almost rely on a dramatic increase in criminal violence.

I was assuming these were scenarios cooked up by folks more serious than sci-fi writers. If that's the baseline, you may as well be speculating about zombie uprisings, pod people or triffids.

 

[koyote]

Oh, I apologize. While I did reference uneducated and uneducatable 'sci fi' writers, none of whom have ever based anything on research nor been used as experts in government agencies, and certainly none of whom have any formal education, there is a dearth of officially sanctioned analyses by persons who never touch fiction nor allow it in their houses.

Personally, I have a lot more respect for the late Ms. Butler than Dmitri Orlov's seas squirrels and zero-cubic square boats! (Of course, if you have a valid critique in detail of the relevant works, I'd be more than happy to read and respond.)

Most of the modern writers on the subject who don't branch off into evil fiction base far too much on economics. Look at, for example, Robin Hanson. There is also a tendency (one of the reasons I think some of us gravitate here is in response to this) to ignore personal aspects and improve the granularity of observations from academia- especially with the sociologists, economists, and political scientists.

 

[shecky]

If it's not already obvious, the way people behave in fiction is optimized to tell a compelling story, not necessarily demonstrate any particular insight into human psychology. So, yes, I'm willing to take works by sociologists, economists, and political scientists more seriously. Referencing sci fi writers as "TEOTWAWKI thinkers" should be taken with a grain of salt. Saying that "most of the modern writers on the subject... base far too much on economics", is like saying the Pope thinks way too much about Jesus.

 

[koyote]

You know, you are right. It's very much religious. Make up a bunch of theoretical rules and - honestly- faith based beliefs about the power of capital and try to pigeonhole exactly what it is and then pray really hard that it will work that way when real people get in the mix!

Okay, my previous post sounded very snarky, but all plot devices aside, a lot of the fictional accounts are based very much on people trying to figure out what will happen- and some of these people (not Ahern) are or were professionals.

You'll note I didn't say much about anthropologists, and there's a reason for that. Anthropologists tend to come from the bottom up and try to fit their ideas to what actually happens instead of the other way around. (there's also a tendency to forget to finish papers because it's just SO COOL to start making the neolithic celtic dart thrower once you realize there's a harmonic involved, and so on)

Some speculative fiction writers are very serious catastrophe thinkers and are even paid to think about it. I do tend to treat them more seriously than the Ringos and Aherns. Though Ringo tried really hard with _The Last Centurion_ he failed miserably through just flat out changing things to suit his idea that conservatism has to be better than anything else, because it's holy. (a lot of his basic research was right, and it's decent thinking material, but he went way out of the ballpark in a lot of his presuppositions, and cherry picked his data set.)

 

[kgd]

I have to agree with the tenure of Koyote here. Ultimately, Sci Fi writers talk about the human condition and hypothesized moral political outcomes related to the future, technology or catastrophe.

A lot of supposed non-fiction is based on personal speculation about the human condition, moral and political outcomes related to the future, technology or catastrophe. They are both educated guesses by people thinking about the subject. Fiction writers get to weave a little more background into their works. Historians get to mould the facts to suit their theory - if they don't its a god aweful boring read. That is why biographies are such best sellers. They are the memoirs that are most convenient to the best story available.

 

[ROCK6]

Interesting; I do believe the criminal element fears for their own skin and a virus isn't something they can stab or shoot. We are "bracketed" by the flu in Central Texas and given the lack of true severity or threat; she'd like to have a couple weeks off if the schools closed. Given the low mortality rate, I wouldn't mind getting exposure just to build up the immune system

Regardless of this flu, I think the truly eye-opening lesson learned is how fast a biological threat can spread with such an open border and mass transit world/economy. I mean, this virus has spread so fast and too so many corners that a "real" threat is pretty scary. Yeah, I'm an admitted Sci-Fi fan, but the reality is that bugs today can travel faster and further than ever before.

Honestly, I hope more people stay home out of fear and Wal Mar or Dicks has more ammo on the shelves for me

ROCK6

ETA: Hey Koyote, make sure my Leuku gets shipped before UPS or the USPS shuts down!

 

[kgd]

Regardless of this flu, I think the truly eye-opening lesson learned is how fast a biological threat can spread with such an open border and mass transit world/economy. I mean, this virus has spread so fast and too so many corners that a "real" threat is pretty scary. Yeah, I'm an admitted Sci-Fi fan, but the reality is that bugs today can travel faster and further than ever before.

Yes it is eye opening. But then again think about your day. Today, I was an examiner for a PhD thesis defense. The candidate arrived from Dubai. The external from Austrailia. We had a visiting scientist in our room from Lagos who had arrive the week earlier. The candidate arrived from dubai last week. He sat in Frankfurt airport for 8 h awaiting connections. How many folks might he have been in contact with. How many folks might our Lagos colleage been in contact with. This list goes on. Last year I stayed at least 2 d in 11 different countries. I'm probably a walking germ bank

 

[ROCK6]

Yes it is eye opening. But then again think about your day. Today, I was an examiner for a PhD thesis defense. The candidate arrived from Dubai. The external from Austrailia. We had a visiting scientist in our room from Lagos who had arrive the week earlier. The candidate arrived from dubai last week. He sat in Frankfurt airport for 8 h awaiting connections. How many folks might he have been in contact with. How many folks might our Lagos colleage been in contact with. This list goes on. Last year I stayed at least 2 d in 11 different countries. I'm probably a walking germ bank

It is amazing...maybe it's even better? Exposure is good for the immune system. A good thesis maybe that our open borders and world-transportation system is even better for combating pandemics? The lack of isolation of several viruses allows us to develop the defenses on a world-wide scale that would defeat the unknown virus or bug when it first immerges.

I'm probably not a good Petri dish...I've been inoculated so many times, double my anthrax shots and every other immunization that Uncle Sugar thinks I need and then some. I'm torn though...do I continue on a healthy diet and lifestyle or drink a little more with a worse diet to make my body less desirable for invasion?

ROCK6